Thanks Ksa23. If I understand correctly, if someone were concerned that Lucid wouldn't be around in 3 years time and wanted to hedge their bets leasing could be a way of doing that. In that case the RV at the end of the lease might be lower than the calculated RV at the beginning of the lease so walking away from the car would make sense. On the other hand, if Lucid is figuring on low residual values for purposes of the lease and in three years time they soar to glory the actual residual value at the end of the lease would be higher so buying the car would make sense and all you've done is delay the purchase decision. Is this a reasonable analysis?
Another way to look at it is your lease payments are made up of depreciation and interest. As a lessee or as a purchaser, you are “paying” for the depreciation. In a lease, the depreciation is defined up front (Selling price, fees, taxes, interest minus residual value = depreciation expense). In a purchase you will “pay” the depreciation when you go to sell it in 3- 5years for less than you paid for it.
Think of it as front-loaded (lease) versus Back-end loaded (purchase) as far as that depreciation expense. Leasing companies pretty much have residual values down pat - for 95% of the cars out there. Historical values give them the data they need - under normal market conditions.
The low residuals they are placing on the Lucid make sense - they have no historical data, and there is no way the leasing companies are going to set themselves up to lose at Lease end, hence the the conservative (maybe!) valuation.
The thing with owning the car after it’s paid off is you will still have transportation even if it has depreciated depressingly low. In a lease you have to give it back and start all over again. You won’t know if you will buy it at the end of the lease until that time.
In my opinion it’s more of a market play, assuming interest costs are similar between Lease and Finance to own - because you’re going to pay the depreciation expense in either scenario. Lock the depreciation in now or play the market and pay it later. Good luck with your decision! Either way you’re going to be driving a pretty cool car