Jason Cammisa gets it- these manufacturers maybe obsolete soon

[hmp10]

Assuming Rawlinson was the genius that cracked the solution (personally I think he was gone by the time Tesla figured it out), Musk had to be confident enough with Rawlinson's findings to give the green light for the change in direction. If Rawlinson was responsible for today's FSD functionality, why doesn't DDP have point-to-point capability, with or without ultrasonic and Lidar?

Did I miss something? Has anyone here claimed that Rawlinson had anything to do with FSD?

 

[martinjlm]

Did I miss something? Has anyone here claimed that Rawlinson had anything to do with FSD?

Unless I misread post #19, yes. It is possible that I misread it, but that is my interpretation.

 

[hmp10]

Unless I misread post #19, yes. It is possible that I misread it, but that is my interpretation.

Okay, now that I look at that post again, I see what you mean.

However, I didn't read it that way. Since most of the post was arguing FSD still has never happened, I thought the statement that Rawlinson "made it happen" was a reference to the original Model S in general -- a car which never claimed to have FSD and a car which Rawlinson did make happen.

It should be noted that even going back to the original Roadster which preceded the Model S, Musk turned to Lotus for help in making the powertrain workable . . . and Peter Rawlinson was the head of Advanced Engineering at Lotus at the time. In fact, that's why Musk knew him and later recruited him to Tesla.

 

[martinjlm]

Okay, now that I look at that post again, I see what you mean.

However, I didn't read it that way. Since most of the post was arguing FSD still has never happened, I thought the statement that Rawlinson "made it happen" was a reference to the original Model S in general -- a car which never claimed to have FSD and a car which Rawlinson did make happen.

It should be noted that even going back to the original Roadster which preceded the Model S, Musk turned to Lotus for help in making the powertrain workable . . . and Peter Rawlinson was the head of Advanced Engineering at Lotus at the time. In fact, that's why Musk knew him and later recruited him to Tesla.

I thought that too at first but the post was all about FSD and Model S was never mentioned, so I responded with that filter on.

 

[victoryroad]

What struck me about the video was the obviously increasing pace of change in automobile design and engineering that will probably accelerate. Aside from capital commitment by manufacturers, one potential impediment to passenger vehicle EV adoption is electricity generation and transmission and its efficiency. I will leave that topic to those who know far more than I do.

 

[gaskiller]

What struck me about the video was the obviously increasing pace of change in automobile design and engineering that will probably accelerate. Aside from capital commitment by manufacturers, one potential impediment to passenger vehicle EV adoption is electricity generation and transmission and its efficiency. I will leave that topic to those who know far more than I do.

Exactly, I never knew Model S was made that much better. Wonder why Tesla did not promote such advances? Truly remarkable vehicle. Thank you Rawlinson for his engineering and Musk for funding!

 

[tmichael]

Fully disagree about half full, that shouldn't even be a consideration....a decade on, he still hasn't figured out FSD. It will be ready in 2018 he said, either a full blown lie, or a conman.....FSD won't work without redundancy. Guess why he took away LIDAR? Because the more different type of sensors that you have, the harder the compute. So he called LIDAR a fools errand , said he doens't need it and made fools out of everyone. I'm not drinking the koolaid. WAYMO is a decade ahead of Tesla. People think Musk will flip a switch and all Teslas will have FSD....keep dreaming.

LIES LIES LIES.....because he has a cult following and richest man in the world, people think his glass is half full...its actually maybe 10% full

Everything Elon Musk promised in 2025, but didn't deliver

Musk is now infamous for his false promises, but even this is excessive.

mashable.com

In half the country he said.....hahahahaha.....how can that many people be so gullible!

Even HW4 won't have teh necessary hardware. .....to quote Musk when asked about FSD......urrrrrrr....ummmm

As a guy that likes to talk why stocks go up, etc. - the CAGR of TSLA since IPO in June, 2010 through Friday was 41.3%. Stock prices don't reflect product, CEOs or anything other than what two parties will exchange a share of stock at... nothing simpler than that.

 

[Pragmatic]

But most of that came in the early years. Over the last five years Tesla has done worse than the S&P, with a higher beta.

 

[tmichael]

But most of that came in the early years. Over the last five years Tesla has done worse than the S&P, with a higher beta.

Absolutely. But, the rule still applies. Same CEO, same product. It is simply that buyers and sellers are agreeing on a lower price increase. And, it is still 8.9% over 5 years. And 10 year is 24-25%. SP500 was 14-15% over same 10 year period. Also, pretty tough for one stock to beat the SP500 on return AND beta.

Not a TSLA holder anymore, but better than a stick in the eye! Again, not a TSLA advocate.

 

[hmp10]

Exactly, I never knew Model S was made that much better. Wonder why Tesla did not promote such advances? Truly remarkable vehicle.

Because it was really not that much better.

We had a 2015 Model S P90D for six years that we replaced with a 2021 Model S Plaid. Yes, almost everything about the Plaid was different from the earlier Model S. But better? Not so much, especially when compared to the Lucid Air Dream Performance we got about four months after we took delivery of the Plaid.

The later Model S marginally improved seating comfort without actually increasing cabin volume. The Air blew it out of the water on that score.

The interior materials of the Plaid were different from the earlier Model S, but they were not better.

The Plaid had air suspension which was not available on the earlier Model S, but it was no match to the Air and its coil-spring suspension. The Air stayed planted under hard acceleration, whereas the Plaid went light in the front end to the point that you quickly had to get off the throttle, thereby making access to its power limited.

Our Air is still rock solid and rattle-free at well over 40,000 miles. The Plaid was squeaking and groaning in its rear quarters by 10,000 miles.

The Plaid software was more stable than the Air's, at least until UX 2.0 came along, but it was not problem free. Besides occasional screen reboots being required, we went through repeated days-long bouts of the car not responding to the key fob to open doors and sometimes not to start the car, either.

The Plaid had active noise cancellation (or claimed to). The Air did not and was still the quieter cabin.

And here was the real kicker. The Plaid was delivered with significantly more defects in body, trim, and paint than the 2015 Model S . . . and with no fewer than our early-production Air. And this was before the yoke cover began peeing off.

Believe me, Tesla didn't really have all that much to brag about with the Model S changes.

 

[gaskiller]

Because it was really not that much better.

We had a 2015 Model S P90D for six years that we replaced with a 2021 Model S Plaid. Yes, almost everything about the Plaid was different from the earlier Model S. But better? Not so much, especially when compared to the Lucid Air Dream Performance we got about four months after we took delivery of the Plaid.

The later Model S marginally improved seating comfort without actually increasing cabin volume. The Air blew it out of the water on that score.

The interior materials of the Plaid were different from the earlier Model S, but they were not better.

The Plaid had air suspension which was not available on the earlier Model S, but it was no match to the Air and its coil-spring suspension. The Air stayed planted under hard acceleration, whereas the Plaid went light in the front end to the point that you quickly had to get off the throttle, thereby making access to its power limited.

Our Air is still rock solid and rattle-free at well over 40,000 miles. The Plaid was squeaking and groaning in its rear quarters by 10,000 miles.

The Plaid software was more stable than the Air's, at least until UX 2.0 came along, but it was not problem free. Besides occasional screen reboots being required, we went through repeated days-long bouts of the car not responding to the key fob to open doors and sometimes not to start the car, either.

The Plaid had active noise cancellation (or claimed to). The Air did not and was still the quieter cabin.

And here was the real kicker. The Plaid was delivered with significantly more defects in body, trim, and paint than the 2015 Model S . . . and with no fewer than our early-production Air. And this was before the yoke cover began peeing off.

Believe me, Tesla didn't really have all that much to brag about with the Model S changes.

Yes, definitely agree Lucid is miles ahead of Model S in quality, ride and handling. But never realized Models S was improved that much.

 

[prgarg]

Because it was really not that much better.

We had a 2015 Model S P90D for six years that we replaced with a 2021 Model S Plaid. Yes, almost everything about the Plaid was different from the earlier Model S. But better? Not so much, especially when compared to the Lucid Air Dream Performance we got about four months after we took delivery of the Plaid.

The later Model S marginally improved seating comfort without actually increasing cabin volume. The Air blew it out of the water on that score.

The interior materials of the Plaid were different from the earlier Model S, but they were not better.

The Plaid had air suspension which was not available on the earlier Model S, but it was no match to the Air and its coil-spring suspension. The Air stayed planted under hard acceleration, whereas the Plaid went light in the front end to the point that you quickly had to get off the throttle, thereby making access to its power limited.

Our Air is still rock solid and rattle-free at well over 40,000 miles. The Plaid was squeaking and groaning in its rear quarters by 10,000 miles.

The Plaid software was more stable than the Air's, at least until UX 2.0 came along, but it was not problem free. Besides occasional screen reboots being required, we went through repeated days-long bouts of the car not responding to the key fob to open doors and sometimes not to start the car, either.

The Plaid had active noise cancellation (or claimed to). The Air did not and was still the quieter cabin.

And here was the real kicker. The Plaid was delivered with significantly more defects in body, trim, and paint than the 2015 Model S . . . and with no fewer than our early-production Air. And this was before the yoke cover began peeing off.

Believe me, Tesla didn't really have all that much to brag about with the Model S changes.

True, most of the changes reflected manufacturing and costing efficiencies, but there were very few user related updates.

 

[martinjlm]

Fully disagree about half full, that shouldn't even be a consideration....a decade on, he still hasn't figured out FSD. It will be ready in 2018 he said, either a full blown lie, or a conman.....FSD won't work without redundancy. Guess why he took away LIDAR? Because the more different type of sensors that you have, the harder the compute. So he called LIDAR a fools errand , said he doens't need it and made fools out of everyone. I'm not drinking the koolaid. WAYMO is a decade ahead of Tesla. People think Musk will flip a switch and all Teslas will have FSD....keep dreaming.

LIES LIES LIES.....because he has a cult following and richest man in the world, people think his glass is half full...its actually maybe 10% full

Everything Elon Musk promised in 2025, but didn't deliver

Musk is now infamous for his false promises, but even this is excessive.

mashable.com

In half the country he said.....hahahahaha.....how can that many people be so gullible!

Even HW4 won't have teh necessary hardware. .....to quote Musk when asked about FSD......urrrrrrr....ummmm

All I can tell ya is our '23 Tesla has the ability to drive itself point-to-point. Our '23 Lucid does not. Personally, I don't really care because I rarely use the FSD. I prefer to drive. But I have witnessed it pull out of our garage, drive all the way to the gym / Costco / my in-laws' residences / et cetera and park itself. Whether in a parking lot between lines, in a driveway, or at a curb. It does that. Lucid cannot do that and Tesla does it with just cameras. I give them credit for the accomplishment even if I don't have a leaning to use it myself.

The Air on the other hand, with all the sensors or Lidar can't go point to point yet. Can't pull itself out of my garage. Can't change lanes without me asking it to. And, a recent find on my part, can only auto-park between two parked vehicles. Clearly Tesla does much more with less. Now, there is no doubt that the capability that it has now has only been evident for the better part of a year, even though Musk was saying "by the end of the year" for arguably the past 7 or 8 years, so there's that. The only aspect of full self driving (intentionally not capitalized) that it does not do (yet) is eyes-off navigation. It'll be interesting to see if they get there before GM gets there with SuperCruise. GM has already said 2027 Escalade iQ will have eyes-off.

 

[hmp10]

Yes, definitely agree Lucid is miles ahead of Model S in quality, ride and handling. But never realized Models S was improved that much.

This is anecdotal, but I'll tell it, anyway.

Once we had a delivery date on our 2022 Air, I wanted to get rid of the Model S as its extended warranty was expiring. My partner had really loved that car, though -- even more than me who really liked it. So we decided to get the Plaid which had been out a few months. And for a while my partner preferred to drive the Tesla over the Air when he was going out alone.

Flash to four years later when we were waiting for our first Gravity to arrive. I wanted to get rid of the Plaid, and my partner said, "fine". He had long since come to prefer the Air over the Tesla.

Now the 4-year leg of the Air warranty is expiring, and I have raised the prospect of getting rid of it and trying another EV as we now have the two Gravities. His response this time: "no way!"

 

[martinjlm]

Yes, definitely agree Lucid is miles ahead of Model S in quality, ride and handling. But never realized Models S was improved that much.

I considered buying a used Plaid at the time that I was shopping for a used EV. It pretty much came down to Plaid or AGT. I think ya'll know how that ended. Sure the Plaid is a little quicker, but I doubt I'll spend a lot of time running quarter miles or dialing in Launch Mode at traffic lights. And sure the Plaid has FSD. So does our [my wife's] Model Y. I prefer to drive. The build quality, interior design and materials, and overall focus on efficiency of Air made it a lot less of a contest than I thought it would be.

 

[borski]

I considered buying a used Plaid at the time that I was shopping for a used EV. It pretty much came down to Plaid or AGT. I think ya'll know how that ended. Sure the Plaid is a little quicker, but I doubt I'll spend a lot of time running quarter miles or dialing in Launch Mode at traffic lights. And sure the Plaid has FSD. So does our [my wife's] Model Y. I prefer to drive. The build quality, interior design and materials, and overall focus on efficiency of Air made it a lot less of a contest than I thought it would be.

For me it was S Plaid, Air DE, or R8 Spyder.

Obviously the Air won out, but it was close with the R8. The Plaid was a non-starter once I drove it, for me. It was not comparable to either of the other two, despite being plenty fast in a straight line.

 

[PetevB]

Hundred percent agree. People think Elon is an engineer, but he designs nothing.

He got wealthy from PayPal (and was fired) but has made his name providing funding, vision, and hiring great talent to achieve his goals. I am sure there are other behind-the-scenes figures at SpaceX, Tesla, xAI who are unsung but are the true geniuses. Tesla has been bleeding talent for years in the Bay Area, as insiders know, which is good for us, Lucid, and Rawlinson.

Hmm. So this is complex issue, but I don’t love this spin.

I know one of the original founders of Tesla- Elon was not one. I know many engineers both currently at Tesla and formerly. Quite a few work for me.

It is true that one of Elon’s great skills is both investment and strategic company direction/ vision, but to call him “not an engineer” is I think missing how in the details of directing Tesla he was. There was a time, and a short one, when no expenses got approved without a summary note that Elon could read on a single page. This was maddening and ridiculous and disempowering to be sure, and Tesla lost many great engineers because of it over the years, but Elon was right in the middle of engineering. Which was far from perfect, btw- blame Musk, Rawlinson, the team, etc, but the original S was both years ahead of its time and very difficult to produce…

One thing Musk does very successfully is push engineers well past their comfort zones. Engineers are conservative- they want to make things that work, they like to hit schedules, they inherently don’t love risk. Musk is the ultimate counter-balance, setting anchors far past what’s possible and then meeting his engineers somewhere is the middle. His ego is simultaneously his greatest strength, his absolute certainty that he’s right, and his greatest weakness- he’s wrong a lot. But I must grudgingly give him far more credit than I think you’re giving above. Those brilliant engineers who do deserve credit also needed someone to push them.

 

[martinjlm]

For me it was S Plaid, Air DE, or R8 Spyder.

Obviously the Air won out, but it was close with the R8. The Plaid was a non-starter once I drove it, for me. It was not comparable to either of the other two, despite being plenty fast in a straight line.

Taycan was also in the running for me but I couldn't get past the lack of passenger and cargo room, so it dropped out quickly. Awesome car, though. It's a "me" car and I already have two of those. I needed a "we" car.

 

[borski]

Taycan was also in the running for me but I couldn't get past the lack of passenger and cargo room, so it dropped out quickly. Awesome car, though. It's a "me" car and I already have two of those. I needed a "we" car.

Same exact reason for me. I loved the Taycan, but couldn’t justify it since it had somehow less space than my Mazda 3 lol

 

[borski]

Hmm. So this is complex issue, but I don’t love this spin.

I know one of the original founders of Tesla- Elon was not one. I know many engineers both currently at Tesla and formerly. Quite a few work for me.

It is true that one of Elon’s great skills is both investment and strategic company direction/ vision, but to call him “not an engineer” is I think missing how in the details of directing Tesla he was. There was a time, and a short one, when no expenses got approved without a summary note that Elon could read on a single page. This was maddening and ridiculous and disempowering to be sure, and Tesla lost many great engineers because of it over the years, but Elon was right in the middle of engineering. Which was far from perfect, btw- blame Musk, Rawlinson, the team, etc, but the original S was both years ahead of its time and very difficult to produce…

One thing Musk does very successfully is push engineers well past their comfort zones. Engineers are conservative- they want to make things that work, they like to hit schedules, they inherently don’t love risk. Musk is the ultimate counter-balance, setting anchors far past what’s possible and then meeting his engineers somewhere is the middle. His ego is simultaneously his greatest strength, his absolute certainty that he’s right, and his greatest weakness- he’s wrong a lot. But I must grudgingly give him far more credit than I think you’re giving above. Those brilliant engineers who do deserve credit also needed someone to push them.

I agree his relentlessness is critical to his success. And I also agree that, at one point, he was truly an engineer who loved to derive things from first principles. He is often wrong, however, and people often try to judge his past actions by his current successes.

In reality, though, and as a counterpoint: sometimes powerful people just do dumb shit.