I am basing this on several tech-related articles I read back when Tesla switched to heat pumps in the Model 3’s, combined with having access to and regularly driving both a pre and post heat pump Model 3 (mine was pre and my dad’s was post) so, yes, some of this is conjecture, certainly for the Air. That said, I am averaging 3.88 miles / kWh in my 25 AGT over its first 500 miles and that includes lots of time in low 30’s temps and rain. In the one day I was able to drive on dry roads and 50+ degree temps, I averaged over 5 miles / kWh…
And we do know that the 2025’s are more efficient than earlier models. Although there are multiple reasons for that, the heat pump is supposedly the single most important.