Gravity Release Timeline

[Goodbye]

I'm getting concerned that the Gravity is becoming Tesla's Model 3. Remember, it almost bankrupted Tesla. I'm starting to worry that the same is happening at Lucid, but they don't have nearly the funds on hand to get through this that Tesla had. I honestly don't think the Gravity will ever go into production.

Lots of new EV makers have been close in the last few years, but ultimately couldn't make it. I hope lucid can find a way to avoid that happening to them.

 

[Xminus6]

That's a bit alarmist. Lucid have always said that first deliveries would be end of last year and the ramp would take until mid 2025. They're not that far of schedule, especially if you compare it to Tesla timelines of the past and present. The Y was the only one that really hit close to its projected timeline.

 

[Tâm]

I'm getting concerned that the Gravity is becoming Tesla's Model 3. Remember, it almost bankrupted Tesla. I'm starting to worry that the same is happening at Lucid, but they don't have nearly the funds on hand to get through this that Tesla had. I honestly don't think the Gravity will ever go into production.

Lots of new EV makers have been close in the last few years, but ultimately couldn't make it. I hope lucid can find a way to avoid that happening to them.

Lucid said it has cash to operate well into 2026. The likelihood of going bankrupt is unlikely.

Fisher and others went bankrupt because it couldn't get cash to pay the bills. That is not the same problem with Lucid. Each time Lucid needs additional cash, investors have always been willing to supply cash.

Thus, if there's a need for additional cash in 2026, I have confidence that investors will continue to supply cash despite of current losses.

When started, Amazon used to lose money years after years for about a decade and it was not at risk of bankruptcy because it had the support from investors despite of losses.

 

[Batteryman]

I'm getting concerned that the Gravity is becoming Tesla's Model 3. Remember, it almost bankrupted Tesla. I'm starting to worry that the same is happening at Lucid, but they don't have nearly the funds on hand to get through this that Tesla had. I honestly don't think the Gravity will ever go into production.

Lots of new EV makers have been close in the last few years, but ultimately couldn't make it. I hope lucid can find a way to avoid that happening to them.

They already produced, what are you talking about? Only reason Tesla nearly got bankrupted is because they didn’t have funds…Lucid has an oil rich country behind. Remember 420 tweet from Musk? He wanted Saudi money.

 

[Goodbye]

The problem is the "ramp" - or the lack there of. Take a look at what a ramp looks like - it's a gradually increasing structure, so the word is used for production to imply that production is increasing as time goes on. However, as we all know, Lucid has not built any more Gravities since the initial hand over of 9 on new year's eve. At this point, one can only assume that those 9 were hand built to fullfil the "initial production starts at the end of 2025" promise. I think the truth is, production has not started whatsoever and the delivery of those 9 Gravities should be discounted or completely disregarded at this point - which begs the question, when will production ACTUALLY start, along with the realization that the actual ramp starts AFTER that. The delivery of those 9 Gravities is meaningless now.

I get what you're saying about the Saudies. I know they may continue to sink money in Lucid. But they're not idiots. They also understand economics and sunk costs. There is a limit to how much they will invest in Lucid. Additionally, and just as important, they aren't handing over gifts to Lucid. Every time they invest more money, they get more ownership, which reduces my ownership (share dilution). So, while I'd obviously rather have greatly diluted shares in Licid than worthless shares, is there any real chance that I, or the Saudies will ever see a return on our investment? I really doubt it at this point. I'm sure the Saudies are starting to think that also.

 

[Neurio]

How do we all know that there haven't been any more Gravities produced? They could easily be building them and hiding them inside the factory. We do believe, however, that no more have been delivered, and that is very concerning, especially given the radio silence.

And Lucid was never going to be profitable until midsize, as that will be the true volume driver, just like Tesla wasn't profitable until Model 3. Lucid is following the same model - build the more expensive, lower volume models to prove yourself, then build the cheaper, more mass market to achieve profitability. The Saudis are no fools and understand the long game.

 

[MorganB]

This has ramped exactly like the Air release. A few delivered at a media event followed by a pause and then the beginning of actual deliveries that slowly ramp up. It's a bit confusing considering the "launch" started at the end of last year but honestly it's exactly what I expected. I would assume more order deliveries will begin by the middle of next month.

 

[BS8899]

How do we all know that there haven't been any more Gravities produced? They could easily be building them and hiding them inside the factory. We do believe, however, that no more have been delivered, and that is very concerning, especially given the radio silence.

And Lucid was never going to be profitable until midsize, as that will be the true volume driver, just like Tesla wasn't profitable until Model 3. Lucid is following the same model - build the more expensive, lower volume models to prove yourself, then build the cheaper, more mass market to achieve profitability. The Saudis are no fools and understand the long game.

Earning call is today. Hopefully, we will find out more.

NASDQ is in free fall this morning. TSLA is heading to $300, perhaps below. All EV stocks are falling because of the current administrations' policies.

Irrespective of its competitors, Lucid needs to be more forthcoming in actual status and numbers. It is counter-productive to have its follower speculate and debate. As I said before, Lucid needs to be run like a business!

 

[HC_79]

This has ramped exactly like the Air release. A few delivered at a media event followed by a pause and then the beginning of actual deliveries that slowly ramp up. It's a bit confusing considering the "launch" started at the end of last year but honestly it's exactly what I expected. I would assume more order deliveries will begin by the middle of next month.

Air was delivered end of October 2021 at a special event just like they did with Gravity. In November and December a further 125 cars total were delivered. The Gravity ramp up is worse than the Air.

 

[petergottlieb]

They do seem to be slowly, slowly producing more. There is drone video of the Lucid factory shot in the last couple of weeks that shows two outside being loaded into a transporter (probably bound for Saudi Arabia- they had CCS ports). Personally, I don't understand doing a launch this way - getting just a few out and into the public and then, well, waiting some indeterminate amount of time to "really" launch the car. But that said, it sounds like this is how Lucid did it with the Air. So, I'm not worried about the Gravity getting out the door, but the process seems designed to create anxiety and speculation - I wonder why they do it that way.

 

[PetevB]

The confusion stems from the fact that while most manufactures will make an early “manufacturing verification batch” or similar on a fresh production line, most don’t talk about it let alone announce the “start of production”. Typically these steps are hidden so that when the positive PR hits new cars are actually available for purchase and the old model sales aren’t prematurely cannibalized. Lucid doesn’t have an old model, so their strategy seems the opposite: better to get customers excited (or string them along) in the hope they’ll wait. From a customer’s perspective it is confusing; I suspect that confusion is intentional.

 

[BS8899]

Tesla gets a SELL rating ahead of its earning call:

MSN

 

[Tâm]

The problem is the "ramp" - or the lack there of. Take a look at what a ramp looks like - it's a gradually increasing structure, so the word is used for production to imply that production is increasing as time goes on. However, as we all know, Lucid has not built any more Gravities since the initial hand over of 9 on new year's eve. At this point, one can only assume that those 9 were hand built to fullfil the "initial production starts at the end of 2025" promise. I think the truth is, production has not started whatsoever and the delivery of those 9 Gravities should be discounted or completely disregarded at this point - which begs the question, when will production ACTUALLY start, along with the realization that the actual ramp starts AFTER that. The delivery of those 9 Gravities is meaningless now.

I get what you're saying about the Saudies. I know they may continue to sink money in Lucid. But they're not idiots. They also understand economics and sunk costs. There is a limit to how much they will invest in Lucid. Additionally, and just as important, they aren't handing over gifts to Lucid. Every time they invest more money, they get more ownership, which reduces my ownership (share dilution). So, while I'd obviously rather have greatly diluted shares in Licid than worthless shares, is there any real chance that I, or the Saudies will ever see a return on our investment? I really doubt it at this point. I'm sure the Saudies are starting to think that also.

Lucid's ramp is much more conservative. It announced that the first batch would go to "employees, friends and families." I assume because it expects there are bugs or missing features to be worked out first. Then the show rooms would get next. Then, finally the public consumees.

Lucid has been transparent on the sequence of the "ramp," it doesn't sound like a cheetah speed but more like a turtle speed.

I don't mind because I prefer to wait to get a complete car than hurry and get a buggy car like the way that so many Cybertruck owners are complaining.

 

[BS8899]

Lucid's ramp is much more conservative. It announced that the first batch would go to "employees, friends and families." I assume because it expects there are bugs or missing features to be worked out first. Then the show rooms would get next. Then, finally the public consumees.

Lucid has been transparent on the sequence of the "ramp," it doesn't sound like a cheetah speed but more like a turtle speed.

I don't mind because I prefer to wait to get a complete car than hurry and get a buggy car like the way that so many Cybertruck owners are complaining.

I don't think anyone is complaining about a methodical managed ramp. But, what is the plan? Lucid is not communicating anything.
Can the reservation holders expect their cars in Q1'25? Q3'25? Q1'26?

 

[HC_79]

Lucid's ramp is much more conservative. It announced that the first batch would go to "employees, friends and families." I assume because it expects there are bugs or missing features to be worked out first. Then the show rooms would get next. Then, finally the public consumees.

Lucid has been transparent on the sequence of the "ramp," it doesn't sound like a cheetah speed but more like a turtle speed.

I don't mind because I prefer to wait to get a complete car than hurry and get a buggy car like the way that so many Cybertruck owners are complaining.

If anyone believes they’ll get this car bug-free, whether today or in six months, they’re delusional. Take the Air, for instance. It’s still got bugs after three years. This isn’t a Lucid-specific issue; it’s a common problem among EVs with the capabilities of OTA's. My concern lies in whether these cars are sold as flawless when they’re not, or if the company is transparent about their current state.

Volvo took an interesting approach with the EX90. They actually provided a list of potential issues / missing features that customers would encounter at the time of purchase and emailed every customer with an order that list. This puts the burden on the customers to decide whether to proceed with the order or not. If they’re unhappy, they can cancel the order. If they proceed and start complaining, Volvo can simply say, “You were warned.”

I believe that people (not all, but a majority) will accept flaws if they’re informed about them in advance. However, if a company tries to hide them, the consequences will be severe. For those who won’t accept any flaws, transparency from the company is likely to be enough to cause them to cancel their order. I think many of the concerns about Gravity would have been appeased if Lucid had simply been more transparent about its progress.

 

[BS8899]

If anyone believes they’ll get this car bug-free, whether today or in six months, they’re delusional. Take the Air, for instance. It’s still got bugs after three years. This isn’t a Lucid-specific issue; it’s a common problem among EVs with the capabilities of OTA's. My concern lies in whether these cars are sold as flawless when they’re not, or if the company is transparent about their current state.

Volvo took an interesting approach with the EX90. They actually provided a list of potential issues / missing features that customers would encounter at the time of purchase and emailed every customer with an order that list. This puts the burden on the customers to decide whether to proceed with the order or not. If they’re unhappy, they can cancel the order. If they proceed and start complaining, Volvo can simply say, “You were warned.”

I believe that people (not all, but a majority) will accept flaws if they’re informed about them in advance. However, if a company tries to hide them, the consequences will be severe. For those who won’t accept any flaws, transparency from the company is likely to be enough to cause them to cancel their order. I think many of the concerns about Gravity would have been appeased if Lucid had simply been more transparent about its progress.

Anyone who has built and shipped HW+SW products would agree with you. The key is proper documentation, disclosure, and a realistic time line to improve or eradicate the known bugs.


If you look at Lucid's stop-and-go OTA releases and bugs that surface within hours after an OTA releases resulting in halting the OTAs , confusions in the user base etc., you will have to come to the conclusion that these fits-and-starts are harmful to Lucid's image and are preventable.

 

[tonykerf1]

I currently lease a air, and my lease is up in August, I am waiting on the gravity , but this waiting around, although it’s still early as far as when I would actually be needing the car, has got me cross shopping and looking at alternatives , however I will be honest I am not finding anything that checks off the boxes the gravity does. I love that it is like a raised wagon, and not so big, but still hold a lot, it really is hard to find something that does everything the gravity does without being a huge monster

 

[tonykerf1]

I currently lease a air, and my lease is up in August, I am waiting on the gravity , but this waiting around, although it’s still early as far as when I would actually be needing the car, has got me cross shopping and looking at alternatives , however I will be honest I am not finding anything that checks off the boxes the gravity does. I love that it is like a raised wagon, and not so big, but still hold a lot, it really is hard to find something that does everything the gravity does without being a huge monster

For added context. Here is what my options so far that I have been cross shopping, ALPINA xb7, Audi sq7, I really don’t like model x or Rivian, I don’t really like any other electric car besides lucid

 

[Gravitas]

For added context. Here is what my options so far that I have been cross shopping, ALPINA xb7, Audi sq7, I really don’t like model x or Rivian, I don’t really like any other electric car besides lucid

Alpina XB7 all day!
I was looking into buying a used 2022 XB7, and then along came Lucid Gravity. In fact, I had no interest in EVs until I saw and test drove the Lucid Air.

 

[Tâm]

If anyone believes they’ll get this car bug-free, whether today or in six months, they’re delusional.

Agreed. To me, it's not about bug-free, but more about the acceptable level of bugs.

When GM sold its first Super Cruise feature in 2017, its hands-free feature has worked since the very first day. The Air doesn't come with hands-free but the Gravity is listed as hands-free!

When Cybertruck first got theirs, they were surprised that even the basic Autopilot was missing!

I also agree with Volvo's approach to disclosing what features are missing when selling its EX90.