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I thought this was interesting. I asked AI the following and this was the response:
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What will a 2026 Lucid Air Grand Touring with every option costing MSRP $132,550 today probably be worth in three years and in five years?
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Nice—good, specific MSRP to work from. I ran current market/resale reports and built three realistic scenarios (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic) so you can see a likely range. Below are the numbers and the assumptions behind them:
Quick answer (MSRP $132,550)
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What will a 2026 Lucid Air Grand Touring with every option costing MSRP $132,550 today probably be worth in three years and in five years?
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Nice—good, specific MSRP to work from. I ran current market/resale reports and built three realistic scenarios (optimistic / baseline / pessimistic) so you can see a likely range. Below are the numbers and the assumptions behind them:
Quick answer (MSRP $132,550)
- Most-likely / baseline
- In 3 years: ≈ $57,660 (≈ 43.5% of MSRP) .
- In 5 years: ≈ $44,670 (≈ 33.7% of MSRP).
- Optimistic (EV market improves, low mileage, great condition)
- 3 years: ≈ $66,275 (50% retained)
- 5 years: ≈ $53,020 (40% retained)
- Pessimistic (weak used-EV demand, high mileage, battery concerns)
- 3 years: ≈ $46,393 (35% retained)
- 5 years: ≈ $33,138 (25% retained)
- I used recent resale/depreciation studies and Lucid-specific data to set likely retained-value percentages. iSeeCars and other market trackers show Lucid Air and comparable luxury EVs have tended to retain ~33–44% of new price at 3–5 years in current markets; KBB cost-to-own and used listings also show steep drops for the Air in practice. Those sources guided the baseline percentages I used.
- I then multiplied those retained percentages by your MSRP ($132,550). (Examples: 0.435 × 132,550 = $57,659.25 → rounded to $57,660 for the baseline 3-yr estimate; 0.337 × 132,550 = $44,669.35 → $44,670 for 5-yr.)
- General EV trend volatility — EV depreciation is still above average for many models (rapid tech turnover, incentives, battery concerns). Wired, Recurrent, and other market reports have documented big swings in EV resale values recently.
- Trim/feature mix & incentives — lease residuals and early resale prices for Lucid have been influenced heavily by purchase incentives and dealer discounts; that can make manufacturer MSRP less meaningful for resale if incentives are large. (Some owner/lease threads show lease residuals in the high-40s to low-50s percent range for certain terms because of incentives.)
- Mileage, battery health, location, condition, and demand for luxury EVs — those move the needle a lot. Low mileage, a clean Carfax, and strong regional EV demand will push you toward the optimistic numbers; heavy use, cosmetic damage, or a flooded/oversupplied used market push toward pessimistic.
- Current used listings for 2022–2024 Lucid Air Grand Touring models on KBB show asking prices often in the $50k–$80k range depending on year, mileage, and location — which aligns reasonably well with the baseline range above for a ~3-year horizon.
- If you want a more precise number I can compute: give me expected annual mileage, whether you plan to keep excellent condition, and your region (some markets hold EV value better). I can then produce a single point estimate and probability range. (No guesswork — I’ll use current published residuals/listings and apply mileage adjustments.)
- If you’re thinking about minimizing loss: consider leasing, factory incentives, keeping mileage low, and keeping the battery and service records documented — those improve resale/ trade-in outcome.
