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As an owner, why are you investing in Lucid?

Looks like Lucid’s stock might be dropping because investors are worried about possible dilution from that new $875 million, 7% convertible debt due in 2031 that the company just signed with Ayer (PIF). The main purpose of this funding is to pay off the $756 million debt coming due in 2026.

Can one of our finance folks explain why this deal is raising dilution concerns? Wouldn’t Lucid be able to just refinance the $875 million debt in 2031 instead of issuing new shares? Just like what they are doing now….
 
Lucidicrous said:
Looks like Lucid’s stock might be dropping because investors are worried about possible dilution from that new $875 million, 7% convertible debt due in 2031 that the company just signed with Ayer (PIF). The main purpose of this funding is to pay off the $756 million debt coming due in 2026.

Can one of our finance folks explain why this deal is raising dilution concerns? Wouldn’t Lucid be able to just refinance the $875 million debt in 2031 instead of issuing new shares? Just like what they are doing now….
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Yes But I thought I saw some note that 675M was in effect dilution options for Ayer to pay off the convertible notes (in other words Ayer gets the stock, but proceeds pay off the notes, and the cash comes from making more shares). I admit I don't really understand how convertible debt and notes work.
 
Lucidicrous said:
Looks like Lucid’s stock might be dropping because investors are worried about possible dilution from that new $875 million, 7% convertible debt due in 2031 that the company just signed with Ayer (PIF). The main purpose of this funding is to pay off the $756 million debt coming due in 2026.
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So like a cash advance off Klarna to pay of your Chime card?
 
According to Perplexity…

If Lucid generates enough cash from car sales to fully pay off or redeem its November 2025 convertible funding in cash, there will be no stock dilution related to that funding event. The convertible notes issued in November 2025 can be settled at Lucid's discretion, either in cash, company shares, or a combination of both at the time of conversion or redemption. If Lucid chooses to repay the notes entirely in cash as they mature or if they are redeemed early, then no new common shares would enter the public float as a result of this funding, and shareholder equity would not be diluted.

The potential for dilution only arises if the notes are converted into common shares or if new stock is issued to settle the associated prepaid forward transactions, both of which can be avoided if Lucid uses cash for all settlement obligations.
 
gaskiller said:
They don’t want to push the midsize forwards because it will eat into there “few” Gravity sales.
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What are you talking about? They delivered a record 4,078 vehicles in the third quarter, many of which were likely Gravity. That would be the 7th consecutive quarter that Lucid Motors has seen sales increase.

socktucker said:
Speaking of management

You have all seen my issues right? They got management involved to fix it. They send the transport. A day early before the loaner.

So I have to drive home get the car ready right?

Get car ready-they cancel pickup 😂
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This is irrelevant and off topic for this thread. Moreover, this is “dumping” and is against the guidelines. Please keep your issues to one thread, and do not repost it multiple times on other, irrelevant, threads.

You’ve been warned and asked not to do this before. Please stop.

Thank you.
 
socktucker said:
So like a cash advance off Klarna to pay of your Chime card?
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Kind of, companies rollover debt all the time to preserve cash, so they take out a new loan if they get better terms and pay off the old one.
 
It’s somewhat dilutive to shareholders. I can’t imagine being a shareholder of Lucid that is surprised that your shares are being diluted. I’ve been hoping they would do a large dilutive event to raise capital. They need to spend to hire more people and spend to get their issues solved.
 
nashvillelucid said:
It’s somewhat dilutive to shareholders. I can’t imagine being a shareholder of Lucid that is surprised that your shares are being diluted. I’ve been hoping they would do a large dilutive event to raise capital. They need to spend to hire more people and spend to get their issues solved.
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If there’s a dip I should buy, somebody tell me.
 
The Facebook CFO has this quote about her experience in 2022. She said when they changed the name of the company to Meta, pushed the metaverse, and pushed out reels; an analyst said basically “I like the fact that you are taking these risks and the products seem like interesting bets, but why should I buy the stock now? Instead of waiting to see if it works out.” (Ben Thompson at Stratechery references this a lot.)

I think Lucid struggles with this. They have some amazing products, the runway is large, it’s a fun product. But why now? What are the near term catalysts?

Also, anyone giving actual buy sell investment advice here is clearly making a mistake.
 
nashvillelucid said:
The Facebook CFO has this quote about her experience in 2022. She said when they changed the name of the company to Meta, pushed the metaverse, and pushed out reels; an analyst said basically “I like the fact that you are taking these risks and the products seem like interesting bets, but why should I buy the stock now? Instead of waiting to see if it works out.” (Ben Thompson at Stratechery references this a lot.)

I think Lucid struggles with this. They have some amazing products, the runway is large, it’s a fun product. But why now? What are the near term catalysts?

Also, anyone giving actual buy sell investment advice here is clearly making a mistake.
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New CEO, Uber Robotaxis release next year- even if it is training, midsize release- design will be exemplary, Gravity Touring.....just to name a few......I'm buying every dip. NEVER STOPPING!

The pull back in EV's by ICE manufacturers is a boon to Lucid is it establishes itself. Imagine of the Germans and Japanese had gotten serious about EV's? They would have taken a lot of sales from Lucid. Battery costs will keep on coming down as demand is not as expected. Lucid, if they execiute the midsize perfectly, will dominate the luxury EV market.
 
Forced out...makes sense

https://****************.com/lucid/...ter-years-of-misattributed-production-delays/

Exclusive: Lucid’s Product Chief Ousted After Years of Misattributed Production Delays​

 
nashvillelucid said:
The Facebook CFO has this quote about her experience in 2022. She said when they changed the name of the company to Meta, pushed the metaverse, and pushed out reels; an analyst said basically “I like the fact that you are taking these risks and the products seem like interesting bets, but why should I buy the stock now? Instead of waiting to see if it works out.” (Ben Thompson at Stratechery references this a lot.)

I think Lucid struggles with this. They have some amazing products, the runway is large, it’s a fun product. But why now? What are the near term catalysts?

Also, anyone giving actual buy sell investment advice here is clearly making a mistake.
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I have a more contrarian opinion, is that we are almost a peak bad news for it, EVs are hated, market doesn't think the company can turnaround, no permanent leadership, execution challenges....at least from a timing perspective. Against risk and prudent investing there are plenty of better places to put your money.
 
I picked up 500 more shares today (2000 total @ ~$19 avg). It's only a few% of my portfolio so I'm just taking a flier on it (fun money, so to speak). Like others said, it's mostly about the product being so good. Not the software, of course, but the designs that squeeze so much space and efficiency out of an EV in a way that few (if any) do.

It's definitely high risk. I wouldn't put any "can't afford to lose it" money in. If I didn't have the money to do that, I wouldn't have the money to buy a Gravity for $109k either.
 
illopp00 said:
I have a more contrarian opinion, is that we are almost a peak bad news for it, EVs are hated, market doesn't think the company can turnaround, no permanent leadership, execution challenges....at least from a timing perspective. Against risk and prudent investing there are plenty of better places to put your money.
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Generally agreed, except for the "EVs are hated" part. I would say EV subsidies are hated though.
 
borski said:
This source is banned because it is constantly a source of trash information. Please do not post links to it. Using it as a source is the equivalent of tossing a coin, except it’s liable to hit you in the face as you do it.
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This guy trying to take my spot as worst poster in the thread.

I don’t know enough about finance to know if this is good or bad. It sounds creative. They have a lot stacked against them, especially loss of that federal credit. At the same time, nobody that ever test drives a Lucid first would buy a Tesla. I think the only real competitor for the Air is a Mercedes EQS, which is a huge turd. If they can come up with something equivalent to the CLA class or Model Y, they might get huge.

I did read that the CEO mentioned become more of a licensing company, so 80/20 split of licensing/production. Something like Lotus perhaps?
 
socktucker said:
This guy trying to take my spot as worst poster in the thread.

I don’t know enough about finance to know if this is good or bad. It sounds creative. They have a lot stacked against them, especially loss of that federal credit. At the same time, nobody that ever test drives a Lucid first would buy a Tesla. I think the only real competitor for the Air is a Mercedes EQS, which is a huge turd. If they can come up with something equivalent to the CLA class or Model Y, they might get huge.

I did read that the CEO mentioned become more of a licensing company, so 80/20 split of licensing/production. Something like Lotus perhaps?
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Rawlinson brought up licensing. Not sure if that is the route PIF wants to go.

Their main competitor is the Rivian R2 which take away most of the market share after coming out mid 2026……I bet you Lucid base midsize won’t come till 2028…..after everyone loses interest. Lucid management not good at execution. They have one final chance with the midsize. If that flops like the Air and Gravity…….
 
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