The Changing EV Climate in the U.S.

Bdr100 said:

I agree that would be nice and might work in Blue States but would not fly in Red States like where you and I live.

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Florida has been kind of weird on the EV and solar energy front. Florida Power & Light has one of the most aggressive solar generation plans in the U.S. They have shut down their last coal-fired plant and now generate only with natural gas, nuclear, and solar with solar on track to be one-third of their generation by 2035. The state has passed laws preventing Homeowner Associations from blocking owners from installing solar panels and other energy-saving devices such as solar lighting tubes.

And Florida has the second-highest EV registration rate in the country, behind only California. It's really kind of the perfect place for EVs: very little cold weather, almost no drastic elevation changes, and many gas-consuming commutes (either due to congestion tie-ups or to long distances from suburbs or semi-rural areas, with few public transportation options). I live in a particularly deep red area, and the proliferation of EVs, especially Teslas, in the past few years has been astonishing. You can't sit at a red light at a major intersection without a half dozen or more Teslas passing through on every light change.

Of course, there have been some rollbacks of late and perhaps more coming. But so far not a particularly hostile EV climate here.

nashvillelucid said:

I honestly don’t think they will build broad charging infrastructure or change codes in red states unless more people have EVs. It’s a chicken and egg situation.

The majority of people still think of EVs as climate change mobiles or in some way associated with climate politics. It may be true that they are better environmentally but they are also better cars than ICE cars. More fun to drive, cheaper to operate, and the form factors are super flexible. Rivian and Lucid are showing that EVs can be differentiated and better than ICE cars. Small cheaper EVs are another vector that is a big opportunity. It just takes stunning amounts of money to build out the factory infrastructure since we have forbade Chinese manufactured vehicles. If the US can either produce or source cheaper batteries, I don’t think the tax credit elimination will be a big deal in a year or two.

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Correct the cost curve decline on EV batteries was already on track to halve in the next 3 years without the credits, now tariffs and supply chain may have slowed that down, but progress is progress. I don't know how we get the paying for charging to happen, both installing in Apartments and charging back to the customer without more EVs. But we also don't need to overprovision, a NEMA outlet with 220V and 15 amp should be good enough for 90% of daily driving.

I would add that we (collective EV owners) need to back off the EV's are everyone's future mantra a bit. They might be, eventually, but to ICE fans its nothing more than a veiled endorsement of those trying to ban ICE. Some here are completely ungrounded to myriad reasons why people choose ICE. ICE is going to coexist with EV's and whatever else comes around as a motivating power for decades. @dbsb3233 I would argue the same is true for the majority of buyers uninterested in EV's: They not avoiding them for political reasons, they just aren't compelling options to them.

illopp00 said:

Correct the cost curve decline on EV batteries was already on track to halve in the next 3 years without the credits, now tariffs and supply chain may have slowed that down, but progress is progress. I don't know how we get the paying for charging to happen, both installing in Apartments and charging back to the customer without more EVs. But we also don't need to overprovision, a NEMA outlet with 220V and 15 amp should be good enough for 90% of daily driving.

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Apartment complexes will eventually follow as demand for charging dictates, but that's only like 30% of the populace. Most of the natural growth should come from people already in ideal position: homeowners who can easily install their own EVSE.

Suburbanites with 2 cars are the perfect candidates. One EV + one ICE. Both bases covered.

When EV new car market share reaches 30-40%, apartment complexes and hotels will see more customers valuing chargers as an amenity, gradually missing out on business if they don't offer it.

jbawden said:

I would add that we (collective EV owners) need to back off the EV's are everyone's future mantra a bit. They might be, eventually, but to ICE fans its nothing more than a veiled endorsement of those trying to ban ICE. Some here are completely ungrounded to myriad reasons why people choose ICE. ICE is going to coexist with EV's and whatever else comes around as a motivating power for decades. @dbsb3233 I would argue the same is true for the majority of buyers uninterested in EV's: They not avoiding them for political reasons, they just aren't compelling options to them.

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I agree. It does not help EV adoption when EVs are purchased without education. Early adopters are willing to take on the challenges of limited infrastructure, range challenges, understanding of efficiency, charging adapters, need for home charging and all of the other things that most people are not ready for. Things are improving fast, but we don't need people buying EVs that don't take the time to be prepared for the change it brings. They will just turn into vocal haters. There is much to learn and most people just don't want to be bothered. My 2 cents.

jbawden said:

I would add that we (collective EV owners) need to back off the EV's are everyone's future mantra a bit. They might be, eventually, but to ICE fans its nothing more than a veiled endorsement of those trying to ban ICE. Some here are completely ungrounded to myriad reasons why people choose ICE. ICE is going to coexist with EV's and whatever else comes around as a motivating power for decades. @dbsb3233 I would argue the same is true for the majority of buyers uninterested in EV's: They not avoiding them for political reasons, they just aren't compelling options to them.

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Agreed. The "agenda" has actually detracted from and gotten in the way of many people learning the virtues of EVs on their own merits. Not nearly enough effort is spent on selling potential customers on the benefit of home charging. If I were an EV manufacturer, that would be in every commercial.

People don't like to be told what they "better do, or else". Or be made to feel guilty, or extorted. What they like is to see how a product is useful to them, so they can make their own choice.

Much of the lack of education by the public on EV benefits is circumstantial. It would usually come from advertising. But pure EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, Lucid) do almost no conventional advertising.

Meanwhile legacy automakers don't sell EV advantages very hard because they don't want to cannibalize their ICE sales (which are profitable, unlike their EV sales).

... what will happen to all the ICE vehicles ?

ICE and oil have long been partners. early ice ran on ethanol, which is corrosive and absorbs water. Rocketfeller had this waste from making kerosene: gasoline. can you use it in cars ?? yeah, but we have to add lead because we can and no one will stop us.

so we can recycle everything but the legacy

I've been gradually switching to Li batteries in my lawnmowers and string trimmer. do not miss oil at all.

dbsb3233 said:

Much of the lack of education by the public on EV benefits is circumstantial. It would usually come from advertising. But pure EV makers (Tesla, Rivian, Lucid) do almost no conventional advertising.

Meanwhile legacy automakers don't sell EV advantages very hard because they don't want to cannibalize their ICE sales (which are profitable, unlike their EV sales).

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I agreed, I don't see EVs being advertised by the legacy auto either, mostly their CEOs (like Toyota, and he has been mostly right) saying they aren't all they were cooked up to be. But you would think some forward-thinking premium brand would actually try to do it...Cadillac and Volvo are doing pretty good in this regard.

Cosmo Cruz said:

... what will happen to all the ICE vehicles ?

ICE and oil have long been partners. early ice ran on ethanol, which is corrosive and absorbs water. Rocketfeller had this waste from making kerosene: gasoline. can you use it in cars ?? yeah, but we have to add lead because we can and no one will stop us.

so we can recycle everything but the legacy

I've been gradually switching to Li batteries in my lawnmowers and string trimmer. do not miss oil at all.

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Lawn equipment is just about the easiest electrification use case to me, all my stuff has 2 batteries, I have no downtime (Battery runs down, gets switched and work is done) and no obnoxious noises and fumes. The more powerful higher voltage stuff is just as good as cost effective as an ICE mower.

Although I might stand corrected, Misha's Lucid Sapphire Nurburgring Lap got 341K youtube views in 1 day so maybe the enthusiasm is there....

illopp00 said:

Lawn equipment is just about the easiest electrification use case to me, all my stuff has 2 batteries, I have no downtime (Battery runs down, gets switched and work is done) and no obnoxious noises and fumes. The more powerful higher voltage stuff is just as good as cost effective as an ICE mower.

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Agree on lawn equipment for homeowners doing their own lawn. But a majority of lawn care is done by landscaping crews who do 15-20 lawns per day. They will continue to use ICE.

hmp10 said:

Florida has been kind of weird on the EV and solar energy front. Florida Power & Light has one of the most aggressive solar generation plans in the U.S. They have shut down their last coal-fired plant and now generate only with natural gas, nuclear, and solar with solar on track to be one-third of their generation by 2035. The state has passed laws preventing Homeowner Associations from blocking owners from installing solar panels and other energy-saving devices such as solar lighting tubes.

And Florida has the second-highest EV registration rate in the country, behind only California. It's really kind of the perfect place for EVs: very little cold weather, almost no drastic elevation changes, and many gas-consuming commutes (either due to congestion tie-ups or to long distances from suburbs or semi-rural areas, with few public transportation options). I live in a particularly deep red area, and the proliferation of EVs, especially Teslas, in the past few years has been astonishing. You can't sit at a red light at a major intersection without a half dozen or more Teslas passing through on every light change.

Of course, there have been some rollbacks of late and perhaps more coming. But so far not a particularly hostile EV climate here.

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Yeah, my son actually works in the EV charging industry. He says although California is very pro EV, their regulatory environment makes it very expensive and time consuming to build any charging infrestructure. Texas is opposite in that it does not support the EV market and has even taken some anti EV and anti solar/wind production steps, but if a developer wants to build chargers, minimal regs to slow that down or increase expense, so much cheaper and quicker to build than California. Florida he says has been kind of a happy middle ground in that they lightly support EV growth but also have little regulatory issues.

Bdr100 said:

Yeah, my son actually works in the EV charging industry. He says although California is very pro EV, their regulatory environment makes it very expensive and time consuming to build any charging infrestructure. Texas is opposite in that it does not support the EV market and has even taken some anti EV and anti solar/wind production steps, but if a developer wants to build chargers, minimal regs to slow that down or increase expense, so much cheaper and quicker to build than California. Florida he says has been kind of a happy middle ground in that they lightly support EV growth but also have little regulatory issues.

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Yep, Florida Power & Light is even putting in EV chargers. There's a station near us at a Mattress City parking lot.

This discussion reminds me of the people who told me most people would never use laptops. Because desktop computers would always be more powerful and cheaper.

The industry has already seen the writing on the wall with EVs and is heading there, regardless. Sure the established brands always take too long, but they will get there.

EVs are a better product. Period. Everything holding them back now is solvable with time and technology.

The customers will buy EVs when they have no other choice. There are always holdouts in any major technological shift. And they always fold when the world moves on without them.

No person in a suit with a pen is going to prevent the inevitable. Try as they might.

The longer the big brands wait, the more they will suffer long term. If not from startups here in the US like Lucid, then from China or other parts of the world.

The state of the art only goes in one direction. And that’s not ICE.

The way I see it, all efforts to the contrary are tilting at windmills. Temporary delays from unfortunate folks who aren’t thinking straight.

Zero chance ICE vehicles are the norm decades from now. Zero. They’ll exist, but they will not be the predominant mode of personal transport.

Consider this: no ICE vehicle is ever going to have level 5 autonomy. As much as I’m on the record saying level 5 is still a ways off, it’s not several decades off. Toss in other advanced tech made possible via AI, things folks will not want to live without, and it becomes clear ICE vehicles are not going to meet people’s needs much longer. They will never be where the newest tech is.

Remember, most people don’t want to drive. It’s a necessary tool to get through the day to day. And as soon as the parts of driving that suck can be taken out of their hands, people will jump at the opportunity. Most will, anyhow.

Heck, in decades we may be living in a world where most city dwellers no longer own cars at all. Laugh all you want, but watch it as it happens. High rise apartment buildings are already being built with zero public parking. More and more cities are being reconfigured to be navigated by bike. Ride share services are going to get cheaper and easier.

And for those who still have the means and the need to drive themselves: Charging here in CA used to look like it does in Wyoming now. Doesn’t anymore.

They used to let you smoke indoors in Wyoming, too. And California was a decade ahead on that trend, too.

Time solves all.

I’m think that this is why Mr. Scaringe didn’t mention Lucid in his interview. Lucid Air took the lead in luxury sedans, a category that Rivian does not compete in BUT now Lucid is ramping up Gravity which is in the heart of Rivian’s sweet spot. My guess is Rivian is worried that as Lucid Motors presence continues to rise in US consumer awareness the Gravity will do the same thing to their SUV. Why would Scaringe want to increase Lucid awareness by talking about them? The more people who are unaware of Lucid and the Gravity the better for Rivian. Also, no doubt that Lucid is firmly on GM’s radar given how the Gravity has kicked Cadillac’s arse in prominent publications.

JMason said:

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I’m think that this is why Mr. Scaringe didn’t mention Lucid in his interview. Lucid Air took the lead in luxury sedans, a category that Rivian does not compete in BUT now Lucid is ramping up Gravity which is in the heart of Rivian’s sweet spot. My guess is Rivian is worried that as Lucid Motors presence continues to rise in US consumer awareness the Gravity will do the same thing to their SUV. Why would Scaringe want to increase Lucid awareness by talking about them? The more people who are unaware of Lucid and the Gravity the better for Rivian. Also, no doubt that Lucid is firmly on GM’s radar given how the Gravity has kicked Cadillac’s arse in prominent publications.

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As somehow who is considering the Gravity and owns a Rivian, I can't fully agree that the Gravity is here to eat Rivian's lunch. Both are great SUVs, but outside of being 3 row EVs, they are vastly different. I don't think RJ intentionally left out Lucid, nor do I really think he sees Lucid as some sort of threat. In his own words, more competition is actually a good thing (and IMO, healthy). Rivian's immediate concern is the R2. They know that will be the money maker, and seeing how well the Model Y sells globally, this is likely the reason he only mentioned Tesla and Rivian as the startups. This is the market they are hoping to win over. Lucid will get here eventually, likely with an even more competitive option, and honestly, that will be a win for us all and I think RJ would agree. He often says the public does not have many compelling EV choices under $50k, so the R2 and the eventually Lucid midsize will be viewed as a really good thing. Once we are there, I'm sure Rivian and Lucid will also be in the same breath as Tesla when people think of ground up EV companies.

Bdr100 said:

Agree on lawn equipment for homeowners doing their own lawn. But a majority of lawn care is done by landscaping crews who do 15-20 lawns per day. They will continue to use ICE.

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Yes. This is the case where I live: enormous (4000sqft+) houses on an acre of grass. Everyone hires a lawn service, but not the same one, so there is always a mower/leaf-blower going in earshot: 24/7.

One of the mowers came over to look at my electric string trimmer. I told him it only lasts about 20 minutes / charge, but I have several Li batteries to swap in (and fit several yard tools). This is not practical for a lawn service. The energy density of gasoline kills the competition. But for those who do their own yardwork: Lithium batteries are a godsend. I hope I can get rid of the lawn tractor the same way, but for now gasoline rules. It would be much easier to get rid of the lawn... let it go "wild" ?
this book scared me.

So the answer is getting rid of lawns. I cut mine in half by planting trees, shrubs and perennials, but still have more lawn than I want.
Last year I planted winter wheat as a cover crop.. It grew. In spite of weather, weeds, and wildlife I harvested 8 kg of wheat berries from my former vegetable garden.


I wish I could convince the wife we need to stay, dig a well, install wind, solar and battery back-up, and farm more lawn. She want to move to a condo in the city and get rid of the cars.

U.S. investment in EV battery production being pulled back:

hmp10 said:

Scaringe is an automotive engineer and apparently a pretty good one. If he's looking over his shoulder to see where the technology threats are coming from, he's looking over the wrong shoulder if what he sees is Tesla.

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There has never been more true of a statement.