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Reverse Split

tonybot said:
I would love to hear your thoughts. I think I could benefit from your perspective. If you don’t want to post, would you mind sending a DM or starting a thread in the off-topic section?
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Ok I thought about it, and I'm just to lazy to make a new thread.

I'm going to post and just ask for forgiveness. *Dear mighty overloads of Lucidowners.com, please do not hit me with a ban hammer. I'm not trying to be an armchair CEO or COO*

My big question resolves around operations. I'm not an expert in manufacturing, but I've worked at a company that does manufacturing and I've also worked for a big ERP/MRP company; enough to kind of have an idea of what is roughly going on at a very VERY high level.

If Lucid is capable of forecasting 20K, and its not some bullshit number they are pulling out of thin air, then they should be doing everything possible to prepare manufacturing for that production level. This should include reviewing all build of materials, and the necessary components to produce them, and more than likely setting up purchasing agreements to insure these items arrive in correct quantities and at the correct time. An argument can be made that due to different configuration possibilities, edge case configuration might be more difficult to predict for and therefore maintain raw materials for. But lets be honest, the order book for the Gravity has been well known for awhile now.

When I hear that, the HUD doesn't have enough components, or that the magnets for the motors are having supply chain issues. I definitely pause. 450 complete HUDs is a KNOWN number, and have shouldn't be difficult to have prepared for well in advance. Magnets in a motor for a vehicle that has been on preorder for a very long time, shouldn't have been difficult to stockpile; especially when Lucid isn't pumping out thousands of Gravity per month. If the Gravity was beginning production in Dec of 2024, I'd imagine that raw materials and components should have should have arrived prior to this. Even if Dec start of production was a fluff I would assume materials should have started to arrive in Q1 of 2025 because Marc said in the Q1 call they'd have Gravities for delivery by end of March/early April.

So was the 20K number a bluff, and they never prepared themselves to produce 20K? Did someone in demand planning just drop the ball and completely forecast incorrect part requirements? Did someone in purchasing completely whiff supplier contracts?

All of it seems like a huge mess. It's sad, because the engineers really seem to be delivering but operationally, from the outside looking in, it seems like a mess. Is it really delay after delay? Or just a serious of ball drops from the operational side of the business?

All of this is speculative, and I'm just a person on the outside putting pieces together and coming up with a theory. I also own a lot of shares, and obviously own a Gravity.
 
NoseyReporter said:
Ok I thought about it, and I'm just to lazy to make a new thread.

I'm going to post and just ask for forgiveness. *Dear mighty overloads of Lucidowners.com, please do not hit me with a ban hammer. I'm not trying to be an armchair CEO or COO*

My big question resolves around operations. I'm not an expert in manufacturing, but I've worked at a company that does manufacturing and I've also worked for a big ERP/MRP company; enough to kind of have an idea of what is roughly going on at a very VERY high level.

If Lucid is capable of forecasting 20K, and its not some bullshit number they are pulling out of thin air, then they should be doing everything possible to prepare manufacturing for that production level. This should include reviewing all build of materials, and the necessary components to produce them, and more than likely setting up purchasing agreements to insure these items arrive in correct quantities and at the correct time. An argument can be made that due to different configuration possibilities, edge case configuration might be more difficult to predict for and therefore maintain raw materials for. But lets be honest, the order book for the Gravity has been well known for awhile now.

When I hear that, the HUD doesn't have enough components, or that the magnets for the motors are having supply chain issues. I definitely pause. 450 complete HUDs is a KNOWN number, and have shouldn't be difficult to have prepared for well in advance. Magnets in a motor for a vehicle that has been on preorder for a very long time, shouldn't have been difficult to stockpile; especially when Lucid isn't pumping out thousands of Gravity per month. If the Gravity was beginning production in Dec of 2024, I'd imagine that raw materials and components should have should have arrived prior to this. Even if Dec start of production was a fluff I would assume materials should have started to arrive in Q1 of 2025 because Marc said in the Q1 call they'd have Gravities for delivery by end of March/early April.

So was the 20K number a bluff, and they never prepared themselves to produce 20K? Did someone in demand planning just drop the ball and completely forecast incorrect part requirements? Did someone in purchasing completely whiff supplier contracts?

All of it seems like a huge mess. It's sad, because the engineers really seem to be delivering but operationally, from the outside looking in, it seems like a mess. Is it really delay after delay? Or just a serious of ball drops from the operational side of the business?

All of this is speculative, and I'm just a person on the outside putting pieces together and coming up with a theory. I also own a lot of shares, and obviously own a Gravity.
Click to expand...
Not disagreeing, but thigs to consider is.

450 HUD is a small number, their HUD has special patent and could have parts that's not readily available. With small order its difficult to gdt bigger company ro develope amd supply your parts.

Magnets issue is not only Lucid, Rivian production was down significantly in Q2.
Parts coming from China has their inheritance risk as the government their dictates.

The possible improvement IMO is Marc can sugar coat the situation abit, like saying Lucid in house capability can build 30k+ Gravity no problem, but for high tech complex vehicle like this some parts needs to be purchased from other company, as simple as magnets to patented HUD components something like that.
 
NoseyReporter said:
From the outside looking in, operationally, the company still seems like a mess. Every. Single. Time. It's a some kind of supply chain issue. You aren't even building these cars at some crazy scale!
Click to expand...
The logistics are actually easier when you get to scale. You can access upper tier suppliers. When you have a custom widget like the HUD, the supplier will be a lot happier tooling up to make the custom thing if you're ordering thousands per month than a few hundred. Larger suppliers can show a track record of producing at scale.
NoseyReporter said:
450 Gravity Dream editions. You're telling me manufacturing couldn't forecast out that you needed at least 450 HUDs by the start of 2025
Click to expand...
Of course they did. I suspect they even got them delivered...but a bunch of them were unusable.
 
NoseyReporter said:
Magnets in a motor for a vehicle that has been on preorder for a very long time, shouldn't have been difficult to stockpile; especially when Lucid isn't pumping out thousands of Gravity per month.
Click to expand...

Any magnet agreements they had went right out the window in the tarrif/trade war. This article lays out the timeline and points out that all export licenses for magnets were cancelled.

mainrichmagnets.com

2025 China Magnet Ban Explained for Global Buyers - Mainrich Magnets

Learn how China’s 2025 rare earth export controls affect neodymium magnets, pricing, and global supply. Insights from a China-based magnet manufacturer.
mainrichmagnets.com mainrichmagnets.com
 
johnse said:
The logistics are actually easier when you get to scale. You can access upper tier suppliers. When you have a custom widget like the HUD, the supplier will be a lot happier tooling up to make the custom thing if you're ordering thousands per month than a few hundred. Larger suppliers can show a track record of producing at scale.
Click to expand...

Absolutely.

I also wonder if the cost cutting initiatives from Finance may have affected their "stockpiling" efforts.

I'm sure as speculative as my post is, internally I'm sure there is a firestorm to solve the problem. I just can't swallow this 20k estimate. If Lucid manages to hit their new revised 18-20k estimate, I'll buy a midsized too.
 
merveille07 said:
You nailed it. This is why it's bad for retail investors. The only reason Lucid is doing it is for giving themselves room for dilution. The only way it's good is if price keeps increasing after RS which I am 90% sure won't happen. Retail investors who usually don't have a lot of money to play might not be able to buy even if the stock price fall after RS (they share loose value and they can't average down because of the price). Anyway, no or yes vote means nothing; only what the PIF want matter. Now if Lucid can start delivering car constantly, all these will be history. Let's hope they do.
Click to expand...
Can you not all buy fractional shares on automatic in your brokerages?
 
illopp00 said:
Can you not all buy fractional shares on automatic in your brokerages?
Click to expand...
Of course, I know I can buy fractional shares. Anyway; I am now for the RS because it seems like the stock price won't budge no matter how good the news are because of short. After, it will cost them much more to short; so I am in for the RS. Tired of the short bs.
 
merveille07 said:
Of course, I know I can buy fractional shares. Anyway; I am now for the RS because it seems like the stock price won't budge no matter how good the news are because of short. After, it will cost them much more to short; so I am in for the RS. Tired of the short bs.
Click to expand...
While I would love it, I don't see how a reverse split will materially affect short seller activity as a % of the float. Please elaborate.
 
Buffalo Bob said:
While I would love it, I don't see how a reverse split will materially affect short seller activity as a % of the float. Please elaborate.
Click to expand...
In two ways (more obviously) but you are correct % of the float stays the same and is proportional.

But in Lucid’s case, firstly, if demand for shorting stays the same the borrow rates (the cost to short) may increase because supply is tighter. (Fewer shares)

And secondly, after the split, the higher share price may make the stock margin lendable (LOC collateralized by LCID) again at some brokers, and allow the stock to be held long term which would de incentivize short sellers who prefer to not have sophisticated institutional buyers on the other side of the transaction.
 
I do hope it passes and sends short sellers elsewhere.
 
liggy said:
I do hope it passes and sends short sellers elsewhere.
Click to expand...
I always thought that a high percentage of short sellers could be a positive if Lucid were to have some unexpected good news. The shorts would have to rush to buy the stock to close out their position otherwise they could be on the hook for infinite losses. . I remember 5-6 years ago when Tesla had an extremely high short position. The stock went to the stratosphere as the shorts were in a mad scramble too close out their position, sending the stock higher than it would have normally gotten to if the short position was not there. I would not worry about the short position. In the long term it is irrelevant. The stock will achieve its proper price based on how Lucid performs regardless. I tend to buy stocks with high short positions if I think a turnaround is possible. That's how you make the big money. "If" being the key word here.
 
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