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Insane residual on a 2024 LAT @ 18 month lease: 86%

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tanjavsa

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Lucid Air Touring
Signed an 18month lease, and the residual value is insane at 86%. Is that normal?
 

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Alphadisiac said:
They will end up with a pile of 18-month used Lucids that lessors can't afford to purchase at the end of the contract and will rival the cost of a two-year new vehicle. It makes for a great lease price!
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My guess is lucid is hedging on survival for 18 months. If the gravity turns them around, they are good, otherwise they’ll just write off the returns.
 
momo3605 said:
Pull a Fisker? Lol yea that’s likely too.
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I am relying on basic economics.
it there is an oversupply of something reducing prices can help move the item, have you noticed how many '23s lucid moved by lowering the lease rates? in 18 months when they are swimming in off lease '23s they might be forced to wheel and deal in order to shed the cars from their books. of course this is speculation, they could just strip the cars of batteries and processing units and crush what is left but that is also speculation.
 
If you are Lucid, think of this way:

Lucid is getting paid $10k to rent out a new air to you for 18 months, then selling them direct or wholesale at market rates (which will make it more accessible to a buyer with a 45-50k budget instead of a 75k budget when the lease is turned in. (You cover the interest during this time essentially)

At 45-50k, they are able to "compete" with model 3 / y new buyers. If you were a model 3 / y buyer would you cross shop a 18 month old air with warranty? I'd think so.

If they didn't move the car, they are floating the capital costs and the storage costs.

So this is a way of getting the inventory they have paid for over 2 buyers instead of 1 without undercutting their total purchase price. Basically the US government is paying for it with the $7500 credit for the lease
 
DreamTour said:
If you are Lucid, think of this way:

Lucid is getting paid $10k to rent out a new air to you for 18 months, then selling them direct or wholesale at market rates (which will make it more accessible to a buyer with a 45-50k budget instead of a 75k budget when the lease is turned in. (You cover the interest during this time essentially)

At 45-50k, they are able to "compete" with model 3 / y new buyers. If you were a model 3 / y buyer would you cross shop a 18 month old air with warranty? I'd think so.

If they didn't move the car, they are floating the capital costs and the storage costs.

So this is a way of getting the inventory they have paid for over 2 buyers instead of 1 without undercutting their total purchase price. Basically the US government is paying for it with the $7500 credit for the lease
Click to expand...
This is the best explanation of this I've seen. Thanks.
 
Forgot to mention, there's the chance of a double dip too in california. Maybe in other states too. Probably won't ever qualify for federal since the limit there is 25k.

Home | PG&E Pre-Owned EV Rebate

evrebates.pge.com evrebates.pge.com
 
Let’s hope our 22 ‘s owned ( not leased) GT’s are worth more than 50-55k in the next 18 months.

lol
 
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joec said:
This is the best explanation of this I've seen. Thanks.
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This is a great explanation. So taking a 18 months lease would be the safest option even though the monthly payment is higher than 36 months lease ?
 
DreamTour said:
If you are Lucid, think of this way:

Lucid is getting paid $10k to rent out a new air to you for 18 months, then selling them direct or wholesale at market rates (which will make it more accessible to a buyer with a 45-50k budget instead of a 75k budget when the lease is turned in. (You cover the interest during this time essentially)

At 45-50k, they are able to "compete" with model 3 / y new buyers. If you were a model 3 / y buyer would you cross shop a 18 month old air with warranty? I'd think so.

If they didn't move the car, they are floating the capital costs and the storage costs.

So this is a way of getting the inventory they have paid for over 2 buyers instead of 1 without undercutting their total purchase price. Basically the US government is paying for it with the $7500 credit for the lease
Click to expand...
the msrp for a BASE car is 70. That means they have to be able to sell it for 60-62.5k after 18 month to break even. That’s definitely not happening. They will lose another 12k-15k as these will be going for below 50k.

Not to mention we know most of the cars people are leasing are not base, some are 2023 GTs that have $1xxk msrp for the same small lease payments. Most are probably in the 80-90k msrp range. Having to fire sale them used for 45-50k is going to lose them a lot of money, especially when the cost to build is like 3x the msrp.

The only way this works out is if the Gravity is a hit and they can become cash positive. It’s going to be tough. The rivian R1T/R1S are best selling 7 seater EV and they are still running very negative.
 
momo3605 said:
the msrp for a BASE car is 70. That means they have to be able to sell it for 60-62.5k after 18 month to break even. That’s definitely not happening. They will lose another 12k-15k as these will be going for below 50k.

Not to mention we know most of the cars people are leasing are not base, some are 2023 GTs that have $1xxk msrp for the same small lease payments. Most are probably in the 80-90k msrp range. Having to fire sale them used for 45-50k is going to lose them a lot of money, especially when the cost to build is like 3x the msrp.

The only way this works out is if the Gravity is a hit and they can become cash positive. It’s going to be tough. The rivian R1T/R1S are best selling 7 seater EV and they are still running very negative.
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This is the more realistic explanation. The lease deals and economics appear to be geared toward moving volume now, create buzz, show the market they are not a tiny volume manufacturer and survive until Gravity.

At at $130k MSRP, they will earn approx $15k from me for my 18 month GT lease, and then resale pre-owned for $60-70k? At best, that’s a $45k hit to what they expected (no idea on profit margins, if any yet).

My speculation is that they know this, are expecting it, and are planning on taking the lease returns as knock-down kits, shipping them to Saudi, then reassembling as “new” with certain refreshed components. Or maybe not, but the Saudi piece plays a part somewhere in all of this.
 
tanjavsa said:
Signed an 18month lease, and the residual value is insane at 86%. Is that normal?
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Normal, no. Definitely winning: took delivery of my Pure AWD in Jan for considerably more upfront and monthly. What state is this deal?
 
Yeah, I’m gonna plan on moving my GT in the next 12 months not gonna wait for the glut of leases to come back as the market will plummet
The current market on the 22’ GT is about 72K with 10-15K miles. I figure in another 12 months it’ll be low 60’s. Move to a new gravity or aused Taycan turbo S as DD.
 
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