Two important metrics for Lucid?

[digiboxer]

1) BACKLOG. On the 1Q22 earnings call much was made of 30,000 Air orders. For reasons familiar to all of us, low deliveries will only reduce that number by +/- 1000. Im very curious to know how much orders have grown No idea what their business plan assumed about Air adoption in the marketplace..a steady X’000 every year? But what should we consider an encouraging number as/of 6/30…40k? 50k? More? What did they project in order to get the Saudi $ into the deal (we will never know). There is a break point above which the Air is a real player in the luxury space and below which it’s a niche player, which is clearly not their ambition.

2) PDI 2.0. I get the sense Lucid is spending much more on warranty work than they expected. With $5b in the bank and only 1000 cars outstanding this is managable. But spread over 30,000 cars it could be a serious problem (especially if the above backlog is much bigger than 30k, which everyone wants). It seems they overhauled the PDI process. Is there measurable improvement?

I think because of past guidance they will be forced to address #1 on the Aug earnings call. I doubt they will volunteer anything re #2 unless asked in QA which is unlikely

Just MHO, but before Id buy the stock I’d want to know more on these two points.

[Disclaimer: this isn’t a bash..I’m not a troll…I’ve ordered a car…I’m carefully considering buying stock..etc, etc]

 

[Compy]

I agree with your concerns. As for reservations, I wonder how many are valid. Many people here have mentioned they have multiple resrvations in, but are they valid ? Not all.

 

[MorganB]

Hopefully as they identify warranty issues they will isolate the common issues and implement improvements in parts / production prior to scaling up volume which would help limit the warranty claims / costs. Also I suspect they are timing service center / studio openings based on volume of cars they are able to produce. No need to have the overhead if you are not producing enough cars to support it.

 

[LCIDdreams]

I agree with your concerns. As for reservations, I wonder how many are valid. Many people here have mentioned they have multiple resrvations in, but are they valid ? Not all.

I think for all car manufacturers that have backlogs there will be questions about whether they are seeing reservation cancellations (due to people reserving multiple cars before deciding what they want, plus the general economic downturn).

I also think most manufacturers will answer in fairly vague terms.

 

[Steveinarizona]

I agree with your concerns. As for reservations, I wonder how many are valid. Many people here have mentioned they have multiple resrvations in, but are they valid ? Not all.

Many also have reservation deposits with multiple car companies. Some will go with whatever becomes available first; others have first choices, second choices, etc. I have a deposit on a Lucid Air Pure which is my first choice. In case anything goes wrong with Lucid (or if it doesn't honor the pricing promise because once I am lied to by a car company, it is goodbye for me), I also have a deposit on a Cadillac Lyriq but for me, that is a clear second choice only if something goes wrong with Lucid. But some might go the other way with Lucid a second or third choice.

So factoring that all in, the number of actual purchasers will be somewhat smaller. However, I do believe that Lucid is most likely the first choice (as it is for me) for most of these folks.

 

[joec]

1) BACKLOG. On the 1Q22 earnings call much was made of 30,000 Air orders. For reasons familiar to all of us, low deliveries will only reduce that number by +/- 1000. Im very curious to know how much orders have grown No idea what their business plan assumed about Air adoption in the marketplace..a steady X’000 every year? But what should we consider an encouraging number as/of 6/30…40k? 50k? More? What did they project in order to get the Saudi $ into the deal (we will never know). There is a break point above which the Air is a real player in the luxury space and below which it’s a niche player, which is clearly not their ambition.

2) PDI 2.0. I get the sense Lucid is spending much more on warranty work than they expected. With $5b in the bank and only 1000 cars outstanding this is managable. But spread over 30,000 cars it could be a serious problem (especially if the above backlog is much bigger than 30k, which everyone wants). It seems they overhauled the PDI process. Is there measurable improvement?

I think because of past guidance they will be forced to address #1 on the Aug earnings call. I doubt they will volunteer anything re #2 unless asked in QA which is unlikely

Just MHO, but before Id buy the stock I’d want to know more on these two points.

[Disclaimer: this isn’t a bash..I’m not a troll…I’ve ordered a car…I’m carefully considering buying stock..etc, etc]

I'm not sure Lucid's reservation numbers are going to hit serious highs until they a) start shipping the Pure, b) release Gravity, and then c) release something closer to $50-$60k.

They REALLY won't hit anywhere near Tesla numbers until they basically ship a Model Y of some sort. That's just the reality of the US market. Tesla wasn't setting the world on fire until the 3 and then the Y were released, either.

Until they ship the Pure, there won't be enough cars on the road for word of mouth to spread. Most people are simply not going to know who Lucid is. We're a strange bunch, the folks who actually scour the web looking for brand new EV alternatives.

Gravity will get Lucid a lot more press, just because it's an SUV. And 'murica loves those damn SUVs. But Gravity will also be too expensive to help Lucid go mainstream. It's a step forward, but not the ballgame.

Once they get their equivalent of a Model Y going (a cheaper, smaller Gravity, basically) then they can really start using all that factory space. But that's likely 2030.

And there will be a lot more competition by 2030.

I'd be surprised, in other words, if the reservation numbers are going to be a good enough story to drive Lucid stock anytime soon. They have to go up, of course. But I can't see six-figure numbers for a few more years. I'd love to be wrong about that.

Of course, this is just in the US. In Europe and in Saudi Arabia, they could pick up steam a lot faster. I could see Lucid doing better in the short term worldwide than they do in the US, given their luxury-sedan focused strategy.

I still see LCID as a very long-term play. Without an Elon cult-of-personality-type of leader, they won't be overvalued again anytime soon. But I can foresee making some real money on the stock in 5 or 10 years. It's a patience game.

Heck, I bought Apple stock when it was $6 and everyone thought they'd be bankrupt in a few years. That worked out okay. I see buying some LCID at $13 in much the same way.

 

[digiboxer]

I'm not sure Lucid's reservation numbers are going to hit serious highs until they a) start shipping the Pure, b) release Gravity, and then c) release something closer to $50-$60k.

They REALLY won't hit anywhere near Tesla numbers until they basically ship a Model Y of some sort. That's just the reality of the US market. Tesla wasn't setting the world on fire until the 3 and then the Y were released, either.

Until they ship the Pure, there won't be enough cars on the road for word of mouth to spread. Most people are simply not going to know who Lucid is. We're a strange bunch, the folks who actually scour the web looking for brand new EV alternatives.

Gravity will get Lucid a lot more press, just because it's an SUV. And 'murica loves those damn SUVs. But Gravity will also be too expensive to help Lucid go mainstream. It's a step forward, but not the ballgame.

Once they get their equivalent of a Model Y going (a cheaper, smaller Gravity, basically) then they can really start using all that factory space. But that's likely 2030.

And there will be a lot more competition by 2030.

I'd be surprised, in other words, if the reservation numbers are going to be a good enough story to drive Lucid stock anytime soon. They have to go up, of course. But I can't see six-figure numbers for a few more years. I'd love to be wrong about that.

Of course, this is just in the US. In Europe and in Saudi Arabia, they could pick up steam a lot faster. I could see Lucid doing better in the short term worldwide than they do in the US, given their luxury-sedan focused strategy.

I still see LCID as a very long-term play. Without an Elon cult-of-personality-type of leader, they won't be overvalued again anytime soon. But I can foresee making some real money on the stock in 5 or 10 years. It's a patience game.

Heck, I bought Apple stock when it was $6 and everyone thought they'd be bankrupt in a few years. That worked out okay. I see buying some LCID at $13 in much the same way.

Nice analysis…some would say with headwinds like rising rates, likely recession, slow charging rollout, high burn rate etc it’s still overpriced

 

[MoniputerLM]

I agree with your concerns. As for reservations, I wonder how many are valid. Many people here have mentioned they have multiple resrvations in, but are they valid ? Not all.

I have (6) EV reservations and (1) ICE. I only want one of them but with delays and ridiculous dealer markups, I am hedging my bets.

 

[digiboxer]

I'm not sure Lucid's reservation numbers are going to hit serious highs until they a) start shipping the Pure, b) release Gravity, and then c) release something closer to $50-$60k.

They REALLY won't hit anywhere near Tesla numbers until they basically ship a Model Y of some sort. That's just the reality of the US market. Tesla wasn't setting the world on fire until the 3 and then the Y were released, either.

Until they ship the Pure, there won't be enough cars on the road for word of mouth to spread. Most people are simply not going to know who Lucid is. We're a strange bunch, the folks who actually scour the web looking for brand new EV alternatives.

Gravity will get Lucid a lot more press, just because it's an SUV. And 'murica loves those damn SUVs. But Gravity will also be too expensive to help Lucid go mainstream. It's a step forward, but not the ballgame.

Once they get their equivalent of a Model Y going (a cheaper, smaller Gravity, basically) then they can really start using all that factory space. But that's likely 2030.

And there will be a lot more competition by 2030.

I'd be surprised, in other words, if the reservation numbers are going to be a good enough story to drive Lucid stock anytime soon. They have to go up, of course. But I can't see six-figure numbers for a few more years. I'd love to be wrong about that.

Of course, this is just in the US. In Europe and in Saudi Arabia, they could pick up steam a lot faster. I could see Lucid doing better in the short term worldwide than they do in the US, given their luxury-sedan focused strategy.

I still see LCID as a very long-term play. Without an Elon cult-of-personality-type of leader, they won't be overvalued again anytime soon. But I can foresee making some real money on the stock in 5 or 10 years. It's a patience game.

Heck, I bought Apple stock when it was $6 and everyone thought they'd be bankrupt in a few years. That worked out okay. I see buying some LCID at $13 in much the same way.

Re-reading this begs a question: if you're right and L was never shooting for wide adoption of the Air, but saw it as a brand-builder for lower
-priced products (which are YEARS off---Gravity is another six-fig aardvark) what's the cash-flow plan.? I'm too lazy to look up the IPO prospectus -- what analysts are covering the stock? Their credibility is at stake---anyone have any links? I don't see JOEC's path as viable....

 

[hydbob]

Re-reading this begs a question: if you're right and L was never shooting for wide adoption of the Air, but saw it as a brand-builder for lower
-priced products (which are YEARS off---Gravity is another six-fig aardvark) what's the cash-flow plan.? I'm too lazy to look up the IPO prospectus -- what analysts are covering the stock? Their credibility is at stake---anyone have any links? I don't see JOEC's path as viable....

The Air was a proof of concept and to show everyone that L ins't a hack and actually has good patents and technology.

 

[Slam08]

The Air was a proof of concept and to show everyone that L ins't a hack and actually has good patents and technology.

Lucid is different from most of the other EV companies. They have tech patents and are winning the efficiency game right now.

 

[Tesla2.0]

Lucid is different from most of the other EV companies. They have tech patents and are winning the efficiency game right now.

There is a higher efficiency EV, it’s just not car, more like motorcycle with Coeficient Drag of 1.0.

Thread 'Auto-Cycle?'
https://lucidowners.com/threads/auto-cycle.1963/

 

[digiboxer]

The Air was a proof of concept and to show everyone that L ins't a hack and actually has good patents and technology.

Pls elaborate on “PROOF“…

 

[thecodingart]

Lucid is different from most of the other EV companies. They have tech patents and are winning the efficiency game right now.

Eh, sorry. Being an owner of many many EVs, Lucid isn’t “winning” the efficiency game atm. They are in line with manufacturers that have similar battery sizes and whatnot. My experience with Lucid has been 1:1 with my EQS experience(not exceeding). There’s plenty other EVs out there hitting in the low 300 range that are on par with Lucid as it stands from my experience.

To be clear, Lucid’s claim of > 400 miles in real life driving (especially highway) is totally bullish and hyper conditional.

 

[hydbob]

Eh, sorry. Being an owner of many many EVs, Lucid isn’t “winning” the efficiency game atm. They are in line with manufacturers that have similar battery sizes and whatnot. My experience with Lucid has been 1:1 with my EQS experience(not exceeding). There’s plenty other EVs out there hitting in the low 300 range that are on par with Lucid as it stands from my experience.

To be clear, Lucid’s claim of > 400 miles in real life driving (especially highway) is totally bullish and hyper conditional.

I think of their efficiency prowess as more of the ability to package it all together. But mainly it's because their motors are so damn good compared to others.

 

[Sandvinsd]

Eh, sorry. Being an owner of many many EVs, Lucid isn’t “winning” the efficiency game atm. They are in line with manufacturers that have similar battery sizes and whatnot. My experience with Lucid has been 1:1 with my EQS experience(not exceeding). There’s plenty other EVs out there hitting in the low 300 range that are on par with Lucid as it stands from my experience.

To be clear, Lucid’s claim of > 400 miles in real life driving (especially highway) is totally bullish and hyper conditional.

You also have to look at size and weight of the different car models. My Leaf is a much smaller, lighter car. We are talking about a curb weight of only 3500 pounds vs 5200. It it takes the same amount of power to travel in the Leaf as the Lucid, then the Lucid is more efficient. My Leaf gets 3.4-3.5 miles mer kWh historical over 4 years. Currently my Lucid runs at 2.9 to 3.2 so, yes, it currently takes more energy to move it a mile, but, again the Lucid is hauling more weight and I imagine that the Lucid number will improve over time.

 

[LCIDdreams]

Pls elaborate on “PROOF“…

They have created a product that is extremely competitive in it’s class and are making it and delivering to customers.

 

[Slam08]

Eh, sorry. Being an owner of many many EVs, Lucid isn’t “winning” the efficiency game atm. They are in line with manufacturers that have similar battery sizes and whatnot. My experience with Lucid has been 1:1 with my EQS experience(not exceeding). There’s plenty other EVs out there hitting in the low 300 range that are on par with Lucid as it stands from my experience.

To be clear, Lucid’s claim of > 400 miles in real life driving (especially highway) is totally bullish and hyper conditional.

You’re confusing efficiency with range. They are related but not the same.

 

[Slam08]

I think of their efficiency prowess as more of the ability to package it all together. But mainly it's because their motors are so damn lightweight compared to others.

FTFY

Its the power vs weight on the motors that give Lucid the advantage in that area.

That’s their innovation that others don’t have

Now if Lordstown could get those hub motors to work maybe that would be even better!

 

[thecodingart]

You’re confusing efficiency with range. They are related but not the same.

The EQS weighs more than the air and is getting better range. I’m honestly not confusing anything. I noted the EQS as they have similar battery sizes and weight…

I’m not sure why people on here jump to conclusions.