Cosmos incoming ……

[HC_79]

Q2 earnings call. And initial deliveries will be in the KSA. We might see a few US deliveries in late 2027 but I wouldn’t bet on it. They’re putting an emphasis on getting it right out of the gate. I’m guessing sales won’t scale up until 2028. And frankly they need the time. There are service centers right now where the backlog and repair time is approaching a quarter. And the stated goal of improving wait times by 30% doesn’t put a big dent in that. They need to put some distance between the service center issues and the new model launch. And keep in mind that a significant part of the backlog is resolving production issues which Silvio Napoli acknowledged have occurred because their products were rushed to market.

I don't think the Q2 call actually said initial deliveries would be in KSA. Napoli only gave production timing (AMP-2 ready in 2H 2027) and said nothing on which market gets cars first or when the US gets any. KSA first is the logical read, but it's not set in stone.

What concerns me most is the plant choice. AMP-2 has never built a full vehicle. Today it only assembles kits shipped from Arizona. Yet it's been picked to build the car Lucid's survival depends on?? Air and Gravity both had painful launches, and AMP-1 is the plant that learned from them and has full production capability today. The lower-risk plan would have been to build Cosmos at AMP-1 first for the larger US market, then bring AMP-2 up for EMEA once the process is proven.

It looks like the PIF money came with the compromise of building Cosmos in a factory that's still being finished.

 

[HC_79]

Could not agree more. Expecting perfection out of the gate is a sure fire way to set yourself up for disappointment.

The hope is that because Cosmos is easier to build (just fewer parts, and the benefit of years of design / factory experience) it will have far fewer issues out of the gate, and those issues will be fixable quickly.

Anything that comes off an assembly line will have the occasional dud. That's inevitable. It's when every car coming off the line immediately needs maintenance the you have a real problem.

Yet they chose AMP-2 that has never built a car from A to Z, only kit assembly to build the most critical car for the companies survival. That’s a big risk in itself.

 

[Adnillien]

I don't think the Q2 call actually said initial deliveries would be in KSA. Napoli only gave production timing (AMP-2 ready in 2H 2027) and said nothing on which market gets cars first or when the US gets any. KSA first is the logical read, but it's not set in stone.

What concerns me most is the plant choice. AMP-2 has never built a full vehicle. Today it only assembles kits shipped from Arizona. Yet it's been picked to build the car Lucid's survival depends on?? Air and Gravity both had painful launches, and AMP-1 is the plant that learned from them and has full production capability today. The lower-risk plan would have been to build Cosmos at AMP-1 first for the larger US market, then bring AMP-2 up for EMEA once the process is proven.

It looks like the PIF money came with the compromise of building Cosmos in a factory that's still being finished.

I completely agree with this. It does not make sense to do an initial ramp in a factory that has never assembled a full car.

 

[joec]

Yet they chose AMP-2 that has never built a car from A to Z, only kit assembly to build the most critical car for the companies survival. That’s a big risk in itself.

True, but the folks with the purse strings made that demand, I am sure.

My guess is a whole lot of folks who've been working in Arizona are going to have a 6-12 month relocation to KSA. Certainly the managers are going to be spending most of their time there in the short term.

 

[HC_79]

True, but the folks with the purse strings made that demand, I am sure.

My guess is a whole lot of folks who've been working in Arizona are going to have a 6-12 month relocation to KSA. Certainly the managers are going to be spending most of their time there in the short term.

If it's true, that's my concern. Money with strings attached isn't a problem when the strings line up with what's best for the company. When they don't, it can do real damage. Cosmos is the car Lucid needs to get right, and the plan puts it in a plant that hasn't built a full vehicle yet.

I'm not saying the PIF is wrong to want a Saudi base. I just hope Lucid's leadership is pushing back where the timeline or the plant readiness isn't there. Napoli's delay to 2H 2027 suggests he is, which is a good sign.

Lucid just can’t afford to have a 3rd production disaster which is why the decision to launch in AMP-2 baffles me, especially when AMP-1 is nowhere near producing at capacity. Fingers crossed it all goes smoothly.

 

[Northpointe]

I don't think the Q2 call actually said initial deliveries would be in KSA. Napoli only gave production timing (AMP-2 ready in 2H 2027) and said nothing on which market gets cars first or when the US gets any. KSA first is the logical read, but it's not set in stone.

What concerns me most is the plant choice. AMP-2 has never built a full vehicle. Today it only assembles kits shipped from Arizona. Yet it's been picked to build the car Lucid's survival depends on?? Air and Gravity both had painful launches, and AMP-1 is the plant that learned from them and has full production capability today. The lower-risk plan would have been to build Cosmos at AMP-1 first for the larger US market, then bring AMP-2 up for EMEA once the process is proven.

It looks like the PIF money came with the compromise of building Cosmos in a factory that's still being finished.

Correct. The commitment to deliver cars to the KSA first was not mentioned on the call but the assumption is that's the way it may go since they have a commitment to a certain number of orders. We won't really know what the roll-out will look like until they open US orders. And even then things could be a bit murky as production timing and delivery timing could be quite different.

I do think it's important to remember that the PIF has its own objectives and priorities in funding Lucid. And the missteps in launching the Air and Gravity may have influenced how they treated their investment in AMP-2. But that's what happens when you're heavily dependent on a third-party for survival. There's also a question of how receptive US consumers will be to a car built in the KSA. That may or may not be an issue.

 

[TahoeMichael]

Thank you for the suggestion....now I can live in peace....

I did the same to the guy who recently showed up extolling all things Tesla. It made reading the forum much more pleasant. And reading replies quoting his comments that I cannot see is sometimes oddly humorous.

 

[TahoeMichael]

Yet they chose AMP-2 that has never built a car from A to Z, only kit assembly to build the most critical car for the companies survival. That’s a big risk in itself.

I'm not so sure. If they set up a Cosmos line in AMP-1, it's still a new assembly line. And we have no idea how staff might move from an Air or Gravity line in AMP-1 to a Cosmos line in either AMP-1 or AMP-2. I think it's far from clear that an AMP-1 assembly line would produce a higher quality vehicle.

 

[Need4Sleep]

True, but the folks with the purse strings made that demand, I am sure.

My guess is a whole lot of folks who've been working in Arizona are going to have a 6-12 month relocation to KSA. Certainly the managers are going to be spending most of their time there in the short term.

I've been seeing a lot of employees doing a lot of back and forth rotations between the US and KSA. I've also noticed some relocations of some US-based staffing to the KSA to support AMP-2.

It's totally fair to be worried about the build quality and experience of the staffing of AMP-2.

And judging from the movement I'm seeing on the employees (both from the US and the KSA), I think Lucid (and to an extent, the KSA government) is well aware of this concern too.

I remain cautiously optimistic that both Lucid and the KSA are taking it seriously if they're going as far as having AMP-2 staff do rotations and training in the US. Plus, I don't see it in the sense that the KSA talent pool will be going in entirely blind. After all, there are now suppliers and other car companies who have also set up shop in the King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC), such as Hyundai and Ceer and their associated suppliers. Plus there are also dedicated facilities in the KAEC such as the National Automotive Vehicle Academy (NAVA)

 

[mwscan]

I don't think the Q2 call actually said initial deliveries would be in KSA. Napoli only gave production timing (AMP-2 ready in 2H 2027) and said nothing on which market gets cars first or when the US gets any. KSA first is the logical read, but it's not set in stone.

What concerns me most is the plant choice. AMP-2 has never built a full vehicle. Today it only assembles kits shipped from Arizona. Yet it's been picked to build the car Lucid's survival depends on?? Air and Gravity both had painful launches, and AMP-1 is the plant that learned from them and has full production capability today. The lower-risk plan would have been to build Cosmos at AMP-1 first for the larger US market, then bring AMP-2 up for EMEA once the process is proven.

It looks like the PIF money came with the compromise of building Cosmos in a factory that's still being finished.

Not to make too fine a point, but there’s potentially a significant tariff issue by building an AMP-1. That I believe is part of the reason for leading with AMP-2.

 

[borski]

Could not agree more. Expecting perfection out of the gate is a sure fire way to set yourself up for disappointment.

The hope is that because Cosmos is easier to build (just fewer parts, and the benefit of years of design / factory experience) it will have far fewer issues out of the gate, and those issues will be fixable quickly.

Anything that comes off an assembly line will have the occasional dud. That's inevitable. It's when every car coming off the line immediately needs maintenance the you have a real problem.

Yeah but I bet you can do it with home assistant

 

[borski]

Not to make too fine a point, but there’s potentially a significant tariff issue by building an AMP-1. That I believe is part of the reason for leading with AMP-2.

It is possible, I suspect, that we may see seem some changes related to tariffs and other such concerns over the next couple years.

 

[Pragmatic]

As long as Chinese batteries can be installed in KSA and completed vehicles can come into the US under favorable tariffs (KSA rates not China rates) the KSA produced vehicles will be imported to the US. At least that's what Lucid was saying last year.