People call EV range displays GOMs (Guess-O-Meters) for a reason. It's only an estimate. It's impossible for the car to know how and where you're doing to drive, what the temperature and wind will be, etc. It just knows what it WAS on your more recent drives and assumes the same (which is often very different).
For instance, I just got back from another 2500 mile road trip, with my worst range leg yet. (I too have the 5-seat small wheel 450 mile trim.) Left Green Valley Ranch in Las Vegas with a 100% charge and made it to the Tesla Supercharger in Ely NV 257 miles away with only 5% left. Calculates to just 270 total miles of range. I think that's my first sub-300 range leg. There is a 4300 foot elevation difference which always costs some range. But temperature was probably the bigger factor. This was the first cold trip I've done in the Gravity and the difference on that leg in particular was stark. I did that same drive in Aug and again in Sept. I don't remember exactly what I arrived at then but I think it was over 20% both times. The charge log shows 88 kWh delivered in Sept, and 112 kWh this week. Huge difference. And it wasn't even super cold this week, just around 40F most of the way.
The Dynamic range efficiency for that leg never dropped below 2.56 MPK (mi/kWh). But the whole leg calculated out to 2.36.
Strangely though, the rest of the legs home in similar temps were not nearly that bad. Worse than summer legs, of course, but there was something about that one leg to Ely that was extra bad. I didn't notice any wind (another common culprit). I'm puzzled on that one. First time I've had range anxiety in the Gravity. Was watching the estimated arrival% steadily drop down to 7%, at which point I turned off the cabin heat, turned on Energy Saver, and slowed down from 75 to 68 MPH for the final hour. That's a charging desert so making it to Ely is do-or-die.
This is my 6th year of heavily road-tripping EVs so I'm familiar with the routine. But each EV is a little different, particularly with how much cold impacts it. Reports from the usual YouTubers suggest the cold affects Gravity range even more than most, so I knew to expect it. But I was still surprised to only see 270 miles of range on that leg, especially since it wasn't even below freezing yet. I'll have some trips that will get down to 10F-20F.
