Will Lucid take Cosmos reservations?

[RajD]

I’ve seen a few execs say they aren’t taking Cosmos reservations and going ‘straight to orders’. This seems really short sighted to me.

Reservations build excitement and buzz around your car. People, for very little investment (and refundable at that) feel like they have a priority, and will definitely pay attention to the pre-launch announcements. It also gives Lucid a sense of what the public really thinks about their design, pricing, and options.

But now, Lucid will have none of that build up. They’ll have virtually no insight into how many people may want this car. Sure, reservations are not commitments,, but as long as you’re not waiting over a year like the R2 did to actually launch, why not build that momentum?

Personally, I have an R2 reservation because it was easy and fun to feel like a part of the process and hype. I even went to see one today at the studio. If I had not received that reservation email, I would never have known they were in stores to see now, and I would never have gone to see it. Hmmm , for Cosmos I guess that would have never happened were I totally new to Lucid.

Can someone educate me on why their strategy makes any sense? Seems like a massive blunder.

 

[Carbonzhp]

For reasons your state yourself, reservations don’t mean much in conversion to sales. Also I’d say it’s a better look to under promise, overdeliver. The internet will cry if they open reservations with an anticipated date and not meet that date.

 

[borski]

I’ve seen a few execs say they aren’t taking Cosmos reservations and going ‘straight to orders’. This seems really short sighted to me.

Reservations build excitement and buzz around your car. People, for very little investment (and refundable at that) feel like they have a priority, and will definitely pay attention to the pre-launch announcements. It also gives Lucid a sense of what the public really thinks about their design, pricing, and options.

But now, Lucid will have none of that build up. They’ll have virtually no insight into how many people may want this car. Sure, reservations are not commitments,, but as long as you’re not waiting over a year like the R2 did to actually launch, why not build that momentum?

Personally, I have an R2 reservation because it was easy and fun to feel like a part of the process and hype. I even went to see one today at the studio. If I had not received that reservation email, I would never have known they were in stores to see now, and I would never have gone to see it. Hmmm , for Cosmos I guess that would have never happened were I totally new to Lucid.

Can someone educate me on why their strategy makes any sense? Seems like a massive blunder.

They took reservations with both Air and Gravity. My assumption is they learned not to. It’s certainly not foreign to them.

 

[Gravitas]

Cosmos must be revealed and demoed 1st before we can begin talking about reservations.

 

[Ktw13]

I’ve seen a few execs say they aren’t taking Cosmos reservations and going ‘straight to orders’. This seems really short sighted to me.

Reservations build excitement and buzz around your car. People, for very little investment (and refundable at that) feel like they have a priority, and will definitely pay attention to the pre-launch announcements. It also gives Lucid a sense of what the public really thinks about their design, pricing, and options.

But now, Lucid will have none of that build up. They’ll have virtually no insight into how many people may want this car. Sure, reservations are not commitments,, but as long as you’re not waiting over a year like the R2 did to actually launch, why not build that momentum?

Personally, I have an R2 reservation because it was easy and fun to feel like a part of the process and hype. I even went to see one today at the studio. If I had not received that reservation email, I would never have known they were in stores to see now, and I would never have gone to see it. Hmmm , for Cosmos I guess that would have never happened were I totally new to Lucid.

Can someone educate me on why their strategy makes any sense? Seems like a massive blunder.

Back in 2021 they had around 43,000 refundable reservations for Air, many reserved hoping the stock profit could pay for the car, when the stock price went south a lot of reservations were cancelled, creating FUD for short sellers to spin.

As you have mentioned reservation would create hype, but this hype is only good for stock price, temporarily, but would soon come down even more as institution doesn't buy the hype that doesn't reflect on balance sheet (except meme like tesla and space x) and tends to offload shares with hyped up price helping shorts to hammer it down further. This has happened before.

 

[borski]

Back in 2021 they had around 43,000 refundable reservations for Air, many reserved hoping the stock profit could pay for the car, when the stock price went south a lot of reservations were cancelled, creating FUD for short sellers to spin.

As you have mentioned reservation would create hype, but this hype is only good for stock price, temporarily, but would soon come down even more as institution doesn't buy the hype that doesn't reflect on balance sheet (except meme like tesla and space x) and tends to offload shares with hyped up price helping shorts to hammer it down further. This has happened before.

This. They’ve tried it twice, and both times they seem to have regretted it, for good reason that had nothing at all to do with the vehicles themselves.

I suspect they’ve decided not to go on a third round of playing that game.

Many of us thought they shouldn’t have done it a second time, and there was some discussion of that for Gravity, but those of us that have seen both launches likely agree that orders, and not reservations, are the way to go.

But people can vary in their opinions, of course!

 

[RajD]

This. They’ve tried it twice, and both times they seem to have regretted it, for good reason that had nothing at all to do with the vehicles themselves.

I suspect they’ve decided not to go on a third round of playing that game.

Many of us thought they shouldn’t have done it a second time, and there was some discussion of that for Gravity, but those of us that have seen both launches likely agree that orders, and not reservations, are the way to go.

But people can vary in their opinions, of course!

ok super helpful to know thanks!. I had a reservation for one of the first model Ss off the line in 2012. That was a different moment for EVs though. This history makes more sense to me now.

 

[RajD]

One thing I would still suggest - put something - anything - on the website about Cosmos. Theres literally no mention of it anywhere. Maybe allow people to sign up for updates? Someone going to their website would have literally no indication that a mid size was even coming.

I just feel like Lucid marketing is lost completely.

 

[Ktw13]

ok super helpful to know thanks!. I had a reservation for one of the first model Ss off the line in 2012. That was a different moment for EVs though. This history makes more sense to me now.

May I also add, if all that 43,000 reservation actually turned into order, its also bad news that Lucid manufacturing capacity can not keep up. We used to count cars in thr parking lot on Bears fly over.

 

[BS8899]

Pre-production hype and taking reservations is a tow-edge sword.

Q: didn't Tesla take reservation on the CyberTruck? And how did that turn out?

 

[RajD]

Pre-production hype and taking reservations is a tow-edge sword.

Q: didn't Tesla take reservation on the CyberTruck? And how did that turn out?

For cybertruck - I think the vehicle itself was the reason for its failure, not the hype. If it had actually been a more practical and actually functional vehicle, it would have done much better imo. Cybertruck felt like a Musk whim. But Tesla did make several great cars which all had reservations as I recall. And they did quite well with those.

Without a doubt, Cosmos has to be a great car first: design, performance, software, and customer experience. The best Lucid has ever made, or this company will fail.

 

[BS8899]

For cybertruck - I think the vehicle itself was the reason for its failure, not the hype. If it had actually been a more practical and actually functional vehicle, it would have done much better imo. Cybertruck felt like a Musk whim. But Tesla did make several great cars which all had reservations as I recall. And they did quite well with those.

Without a doubt, Cosmos has to be a great car first: design, performance, software, and customer experience. The best Lucid has ever made, or this company will fail.

Cosmo will come to the US market about 1 year (or more) after other competitors' entry. First, the HW/SW must be solid. The pricing has to be competitive, and the service network has to be there (capacity, locations) to support it.

Unlike the early Air and Gravity owners who out up with a lot of nonsense to own a Lucid and many owners have multiple vehicles and can afford to have their Lucid in the shop for 30+ days or more for service, I don't think the mid-size buyers will put up with such shenanigans. Given that, inasmuch as the Cosmo is "late" to the mid-size market, Lucid will need all that time to put the discipline and infrastructure in place. Lucid will not survive another new product launch like the Air and the Gravity!

 

[Northpointe]

Lucid’s short term focus should be on producing problem free Air’s and Gravity’s. Because right now any mention of a new vehicle will bring questions on its software reliability, production quality, and service center availability. Lucid needs to improve its capabilities in all three areas before launching Cosmos. They simply can’t afford to produce a mass market vehicle without fixing what ails the company first.

 

[RajD]

Lucid’s short term focus should be on producing problem free Air’s and Gravity’s. Because right now any mention of a new vehicle will bring questions on its software reliability, production quality, and service center availability. Lucid needs to improve its capabilities in all three areas before launching Cosmos. They simply can’t afford to produce a mass market vehicle without fixing what ails the company first.

I would argue that Lucid already has a near-stable software state on Air and Gravity with the recent updates. Customer experience and Service needs a lot of work. I think this forum attracts the owners with issues and not the majority. We are quite happy with our Air and Gravity.

I also think companies can’t single thread everything. They have to do both. If they wait for whatever a ‘problem free’ Air and Gravity is (which i think never exists for any car) before they start marketing Cosmos, well, they will be dead before Cosmos even launches. Air and Gravity are super low volume and won’t sustain Lucid.

 

[joec]

The main reason Cosmos isn’t featured on the site anywhere is that they haven’t revealed any real photos of it.

If they haven’t revealed what it looks like, nor any specs, there’s not much to put on a web site.

Also, that lack of an official reveal is a pretty clear indication that actual launch is still likely many months, maybe even a year, away.

They do not want to hype something they can’t sell. I think Rivian is going to find out revealing the R3 so early was maybe not the best way to hold people’s attention. They still haven’t even shipped R2 yet honestly, and it’s already hard enough getting anyone to talk about that. It’s not going to be easy to get attention when R3 actually ships, since there will be nothing “new” about it. Old news, as they say.

I suspect a true reveal of Cosmos sometime toward the end of this year. And then they will get it into customer hands likely around May or June of next year at the earliest. That’s if all goes well. Earth should follow by the end of next year, maybe.

 

[BS8899]

I would argue that Lucid already has a near-stable software state on Air and Gravity with the recent updates. Customer experience and Service needs a lot of work. I think this forum attracts the owners with issues and not the majority. We are quite happy with our Air and Gravity.

I also think companies can’t single thread everything. They have to do both. If they wait for whatever a ‘problem free’ Air and Gravity is (which i think never exists for any car) before they start marketing Cosmos, well, they will be dead before Cosmos even launches. Air and Gravity are super low volume and won’t sustain Lucid.

Perhaps. Lucid got itself into this predicament as it left the SW/HW languished on both the Air and the Gravity. Once you launched a product, the impact and remedies become much more convoluted and costly. That's why most high-tech products developers engage knowledgeable beta testers that rigorously exercise the beta products and remedy issues before production.

Now, I am sure Lucid engaged beta testers. But the proof of the pudding suggests either the beta testing pool was not up to the task or Lucid did not take their feedback seriously. A beta tester is not a person who just want to try out an early sample of a new car and give glowing reports. Often, the best beta testers are the ones who are technically competent and not afraid to offend the manufacturer with honest but productive feedback. The beta testers should not be part of the company's "inner circle".

 

[Northpointe]

Selling cars to brand enthusiasts is not the same as selling a mass market vehicle. My Air has been relatively problem free. However, the handful of times I’ve had it in the service center have been to fix production issues (trim issues, wind noise, squeaks and rattles, etc.).

I had a couple of these issues that needed attention recently. Nothing that kept me from driving the car and I’m only 30 miles from the service center. I had to wait a month for an appointment followed by another two weeks at the service center. From the repair order I can see the issues were fixed in a few hours. So we’re talking about a six week wait for a simple repair of something that should have been addressed at the factory in production or QC. Those issues have become more pronounced with the introduction of Gravity. It’s not sustainable or scalable.

The company, as it presently exists, isn’t executing on the blocking and tackling of being a competent car company. That’s an objective take from a relatively satisfied owner. Early adopters may accept this or become very vocal in sharing their displeasure. Neither reaction is wrong. But it should give the company pause as it considers what lies ahead as it looks to scale. And I’m certain that Lucid is well aware of that.

 

[RajD]

Selling cars to brand enthusiasts is not the same as selling a mass market vehicle. My Air has been relatively problem free. However, the handful of times I’ve had it in the service center have been to fix production issues (trim issues, wind noise, squeaks and rattles, etc.).

I had a couple of these issues that needed attention recently. Nothing that kept me from driving the car and I’m only 30 miles from the service center. I had to wait a month for an appointment followed by another two weeks at the service center. From the repair order I can see the issues were fixed in a few hours. So we’re talking about a six week wait for a simple repair of something that should have been addressed at the factory in production or QC. Those issues have become more pronounced with the introduction of Gravity. It’s not sustainable or scalable.

The company, as it presently exists, isn’t executing on the blocking and tackling of being a competent car company. That’s an objective take from a relatively satisfied owner. Early adopters may accept this or become very vocal in sharing their displeasure. Neither reaction is wrong. But it should give the company pause as it considers what lies ahead as it looks to scale. And I’m certain that Lucid is well aware of that.

Totally agree that service bandwidth is a huge risk to the company right now, and even more so as they look to scale.

It also speaks to having released Gravity too early. Many of these things should have been fixed in beta testing as noted earlier, before ever making their way into service centers. They cannot repeat this mistake.

Once they settle on a reveal date, I am hopeful they will start to market the Cosmos ‘reveal coming soon’ with the shrouded image they’ve shared to date. Something to tell potential mass market customers - not we enthusiasts - that it’s on its way. Most families are evaluating cars long in advance of actually buying a car. If they know something is coming they may wait to see before buying that R2 or ix3.

 

[DeaneG]

...Lucid got itself into this predicament as it left the SW/HW languished on both the Air and the Gravity....

I've had a Gravity since March, and its software has made very meaningful strides since then. Definitely not languishing.
If you mean that Gravity was initially shipped before its software was ready, I'd very much agree.

 

[borski]

I've had a Gravity since March, and its software has made very meaningful strides since then. Definitely not languishing.
If you mean that Gravity was initially shipped before its software was ready, I'd very much agree.

The Air has also not had software languish. I’m not sure where this idea came from.

Both cars were launched before their software was fully ready; that, I agree with.

But “languish” applies to neither vehicle.