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Q1 deliveries much worse than expected

MJAir23TheGoat said:
“Hasn’t collapsed entirely” … Lol it was over $50 with the 1/10 reverse it’s trading at about $.85
That’s a catastrophic COLLAPSE 👍
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Buy low?!? 😁
 
A year ago I thought the stock could get to 7 or 8. I guess I was right, but its not taken the path I expected.
 
tmichael said:
I'm pretty comfortable Lucid will execute a package that won't be boxy, yet will allow for great interior packaging - they've done it before!

I love pulling up next to an X7, sitting lower and having more interior room while my roofline sits about mid-window of the X7.
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Minivans are much better for packaging and space than 3 row SUVs yet people buy SUVs anyway.

Boxy SUVs just sell better.

Someone mentioned that the Saudi investors might have pointed Lucid in this terrible direction, which is the best theory I've seen.

Leftlane said:
It’s a crazy strategy to piss off your wealthiest early adopter customers, who have the ability to be repeat buyers and brand ambassadors, and just assume they are willing to overlook all their challenges as you go downmarket.
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It's more about the profit margin (well, loss) per vehicle. Luxury buyers have far less of an issue with higher sales prices and higher depreciation. And you just have to look at Range Rover, Audi, and Mercedes buyers to understand their views on reliability. The equation changes when you target a 50k price point.

It's the same model that Tesla used. And it's very similar to what Rivian is doing. They just, smartly, skipped the sedan.
 
Leftlane said:
It’s a crazy strategy to piss off your wealthiest early adopter customers, who have the ability to be repeat buyers and brand ambassadors, and just assume they are willing to overlook all their challenges as you go downmarket.
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I think it's safe to assume that Lucid hoped to delivery higher quality products with both the Air and Gravity launches.
 
Leftlane said:
It’s a crazy strategy to piss off your wealthiest early adopter customers, who have the ability to be repeat buyers and brand ambassadors, and just assume they are willing to overlook all their challenges as you go downmarket.
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It’s even crazier to release your volume seller, find out your software sucks, have supply chain delays, production issues and then lose ALL your customers. Why do you think Tesla did the same?
 
MJAir23TheGoat said:
“Hasn’t collapsed entirely” … Lol it was over $50 with the 1/10 reverse it’s trading at about $.85
That’s a catastrophic COLLAPSE 👍
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Fair enough. But their market cap from the Nov '21 era represented an entirely unrealistic speculative frenzy, and it shouldn't surprise anyone who purchased at that price that the stock is way way way down from that time. My assumption is that people looked at the huge run-up in Tesla's stock price, and hoped to see something similar with Lucid. Hope alone doesn't tend to produce good investment results. That stock price represented two unrealistic bets combined together: that other successful EV companies would replicate Tesla's absurd valuation, and that Lucid would quickly become a successful EV company.
 
gaskiller said:
It’s even crazier to release your volume seller, find out your software sucks, have supply chain delays, production issues and then lose ALL your customers. Why do you think Tesla did the same?
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That only works if your entire process continually improves over time with each new product rollout and you learn from your mistakes. Lucid seems to be making the same mistakes with the Gravity that they made with the Air, and the rest of the business hasn’t evolved either - number of service centers, leasing partners, supply chain, marketing, communication, etc. Owners report the EXACT same issues now as they did several years ago when I started considering the Air. People said the Gravity rollout had to be perfect and was critical for success, and now that burden has been shifted to midsize. What if they release the midsize this year after all the software issues of Air and Gravity and it still sucks - what would that tell you about the company?

If you are going to copy Tesla’s path, then improve upon it. Otherwise, we can look forward to the cancellation of the Air and a pivot away from cars altogether at some point.
 
tmichael said:
Buy low?!? 😁
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If you're into picking individual stocks and betting on a company before it's clearly successful, Lucid wouldn't be an entirely crazy choice to buy right now. It's not the kind of investing I do, so I'm not recommending it. But Lucid is now reasonably priced for where they are, and we're starting to get close to the point of there being material news that could actually move their stock price. Although I do think the next 6 months or so is likely to see no meaningful movement in the stock, so I'd wait if I was going to do it.
 
Leftlane said:
That only works if your entire process continually improves over time with each new product rollout and you learn from your mistakes. Lucid seems to be making the same mistakes with the Gravity that they made with the Air, and the rest of the business hasn’t evolved either - number of service centers, leasing partners, supply chain, marketing, communication, etc. Owners report the EXACT same issues now as they did several years ago when I started considering the Air. People said the Gravity rollout had to be perfect and was critical for success, and now that burden has been shifted to midsize.

If you are going to copy Tesla’s path, then improve upon it. Otherwise, we can look forward to the cancellation of the Air and a pivot away from cars altogether at some point.
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I wasn't around for it, but the early Air buyers on this forum assure us that the Gravity launch actually did go better than the Air launch. So I guess they learned something from the Air experience. 🤷‍♂️

That's not to say it went well, of course.
 
Leftlane said:
That only works if your entire process continually improves over time with each new product rollout and you learn from your mistakes. Lucid seems to be making the same mistakes with the Gravity that they made with the Air, and the rest of the business hasn’t evolved either - number of service centers, leasing partners, supply chain, marketing, communication, etc. Owners report the EXACT same issues now as they did several years ago when I started considering the Air. People said the Gravity rollout had to be perfect and was critical for success, and now that burden has been shifted to midsize. What if they release the midsize this year after all the software issues of Air and Gravity and it still sucks - what would that tell you about the company?

If you are going to copy Tesla’s path, then improve upon it. Otherwise, we can look forward to the cancellation of the Air and a pivot away from cars altogether at some point.
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It’s because you make mistakes is why you don’t start with your breadwinner!
 
Leftlane said:
That only works if your entire process continually improves over time with each new product rollout and you learn from your mistakes. Lucid seems to be making the same mistakes with the Gravity that they made with the Air, and the rest of the business hasn’t evolved either - number of service centers, leasing partners, supply chain, marketing, communication, etc. Owners report the EXACT same issues now as they did several years ago when I started considering the Air. People said the Gravity rollout had to be perfect and was critical for success, and now that burden has been shifted to midsize. What if they release the midsize this year after all the software issues of Air and Gravity and it still sucks - what would that tell you about the company?

If you are going to copy Tesla’s path, then improve upon it. Otherwise, we can look forward to the cancellation of the Air and a pivot away from cars altogether at some point.
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I am not having the same issues I had 4 years ago, not sure what you are talking about.
 
The_Don said:
Unfortunately I don't think it's readily apparent because it's a welding issue on seatbelt brackets.
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Wonder how they found that out, and aren’t you supposed to have quality control on all supplier parts before installation- at least to make sure they conform to agreed on design?
 
gaskiller said:
Wonder how they found that out, and aren’t you supposed to have quality control on all supplier parts before installation- at least to make sure they conform to agreed on design?
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I guess its part of the learning process I keep hearing about.
 
The_Don said:
Market is risk-off right now, so there is a corresponding selloff of EV stocks. In other words the Iran war is having a broader impact on the market.
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Cox reported EV sales down 22% YoY as well....of course that is skewed by lots of vehicles coming off the market of sale, Lucid, Rivian and Tesla missing or flat. Only Toyota and Cadillac did well.
 
tmichael said:
I'm pretty comfortable Lucid will execute a package that won't be boxy, yet will allow for great interior packaging - they've done it before!

I love pulling up next to an X7, sitting lower and having more interior room while my roofline sits about mid-window of the X7.
Click to expand...
I parked next to an Expedition the other day for funsies, even in highest ride heigh the beltline of the Gravity is 6 inches lower than where the window starts. Otherwise I can be very smug that I don't need 25 gallons of $4.5 gas and can still smoke it at everything.
 
erigion said:
Minivans are much better for packaging and space than 3 row SUVs yet people buy SUVs anyway.

Boxy SUVs just sell better.

Someone mentioned that the Saudi investors might have pointed Lucid in this terrible direction, which is the best theory I've seen.


It's more about the profit margin (well, loss) per vehicle. Luxury buyers have far less of an issue with higher sales prices and higher depreciation. And you just have to look at Range Rover, Audi, and Mercedes buyers to understand their views on reliability. The equation changes when you target a 50k price point.

It's the same model that Tesla used. And it's very similar to what Rivian is doing. They just, smartly, skipped the sedan.
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Are they though? The R1T pickup truck sells less than the Air and burns way more money virtue of having an 80% bigger battery....
 
TahoeMichael said:
If you're into picking individual stocks and betting on a company before it's clearly successful, Lucid wouldn't be an entirely crazy choice to buy right now. It's not the kind of investing I do, so I'm not recommending it. But Lucid is now reasonably priced for where they are, and we're starting to get close to the point of there being material news that could actually move their stock price. Although I do think the next 6 months or so is likely to see no meaningful movement in the stock, so I'd wait if I was going to do it.
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I need to see them consistently overdeliver (ie exceed their quarterly deliveries or raise delivery guidance and earnings) for 2 quarters to see any movement of the stock to get momentum...Instead they continue to make mistakes that seem to be recoverable from but delaying all their progress, very much 3 steps forward 2 steps backward....
 
illopp00 said:
very much 3 steps forward 2 steps backward
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I think it's more like 2 steps forward 3 steps back. The moment they start to get momentum they tend to get in the way and mess it up again and at some point in time, Lucid needs to stop blaming everyone else for their woes and accept the fact that they're playing a role in these constant missteps. Sick of hearing its the suppliers fault in every single earnings call.
 
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