Lucid Motors slashes 12% of its workforce as it seeks profitability (Feb 2026)

[Gravitas]

Forget layoffs, their guidance of only 25k to 27k cars produced in 2026 isn't encouraging!

What number would be encouraging for you; 38k-40k?
For context, Rivian's 2026 production guidance is 62k-67k, an increase of 47-59% from 2025.

Lucid's 2026 production guidance is 25k-27k, an increase of 40-51% from 2025.
That's not bad at all for a company valued at $3.2B, vs. Rivian at $19.2B.

This isn't 2020, 2021 or 2022, with historic low interest rates and immense liquidity.
It'll likely be many years before we see such economic conditions again.
IMHO, your expectations should adjust accordingly.

 

[Northpointe]

Having spent my career working in finance in Fortune 500 companies, the layoffs and timing are predictable. While top line revenue has grown beyond expectations, it’s only deepened the earnings problem. The announcement of the impending layoffs before the release of year-end results and the analyst call was an attempt to get ahead of the questions surrounding profitability. You simply can’t continue to grow revenue at the expense of earnings and do nothing about it.

 

[tmichael]

Having been employed or associated with the car industry for 45 years, I can assure you the design of midsize is complete for metal parts and most interior parts. Small moldings (wheel well trim, interior trim) may not be finalized, but tooling for body panels and large interior parts (dash, consoles, door panels) are finalized. They are putting together vehicles, virtually all handmade, with pre-production tooling - they aren't going to change sail panels or bends and creases in the major parts. Production tooling is years in the making, so they know what the car is going to look like.

What amazes me is we haven't seen spy shots coming out of the factory - with the "Big Three" ( I know, I know...) someone on the factory floor would already have sold some pics to a blog

 

[Adnillien]

What number would be encouraging for you; 38k-40k?
For context, Rivian's 2026 production guidance is 62k-67k, an increase of 47-59% from 2025.

Lucid's 2026 production guidance is 25k-27k, an increase of 40-51% from 2025.
That's not bad at all for a company valued at $3.2B, vs. Rivian at $19.2B.

This isn't 2020, 2021 or 2022, with historic low interest rates and immense liquidity.
It'll likely be many years before we see such economic conditions again.
IMHO, your expectations should adjust accordingly.

Since Lucid finished Q4 with a production run rate of 7500, their forecast of 25k to 27k is an indication that Gravity demand is not high enough to support production of 30k or more in 2026. To me this is a rather negative indication for Gravity.

 

[HC_79]

Since Lucid finished Q4 with a production run rate of 7500, their forecast of 25k to 27k is an indication that Gravity demand is not high enough to support production of 30k or more in 2026. To me this is a rather negative indication for Gravity.

The Gravity launch has been an absolute disaster for them. They lost a whole 6 months last year due to production issues and then the back half of the year they were scrambling to fix shoddy software. To still be not be delivering the full suite of colors really is quite poor form.

The damage has been done with Gravity, many people no doubt walked away and now they’ve got to somehow try and get that momentum back. To me, they literally destroyed themselves with the mismanagement of the launch and are now paying the price for that with lower then expected sales.

Also, it’s a bad pattern that keeps repeating itself. How many sales were lost with Air because Lucid took way too long to get to the Pure and now with a year of production with Gravity they still can’t get paint sorted!! Lucid makes great cars but their execution is appalling and to me, this is the big red flag for the midsize.

 

[socktucker]

Since Lucid finished Q4 with a production run rate of 7500, their forecast of 25k to 27k is an indication that Gravity demand is not high enough to support production of 30k or more in 2026. To me this is a rather negative indication for Gravity.

Gravity is a commercial flop but will always have a place with enthusiasts I think. If you like EVs and you like 3 row SUVs, and you can get one without problems, then it’s for you.

 

[tmichael]

I sure wish I could have a beer with Peter Rawlinson and get him to spill the reason he left - calls for early Gravity release, not enough service available, etc. One could go on and on with reasons... but, i don't think it was his desire to play more golf.

 

[Northpointe]

Since Lucid finished Q4 with a production run rate of 7500, their forecast of 25k to 27k is an indication that Gravity demand is not high enough to support production of 30k or more in 2026. To me this is a rather negative indication for Gravity.

There’s going to be a limited demand for $100K electric SUV’s with today’s economic headwinds. It’s a challenge that’s not unique to Lucid. And at that price point buyers are going to expect a fully sorted vehicle at delivery.

 

[tmichael]

Gravity is a commercial flop but will always have a place with enthusiasts I think. If you like EVs and you like 3 row SUVs, and you can get one without problems, then it’s for you.

I'm driving what i believe is the best 3 row vehicle available on the planet - BUT, it is fresh back from a 3 weeks in service with a whole bunch of new parts. So, we all know what might happen. For now, BEST DAMN CAR EVER!

 

[tmichael]

There’s going to be a limited demand for $100K electric SUV’s with today’s economic headwinds. It’s a challenge that’s not unique to Lucid. And at that price point buyers are going to expect a fully sorted vehicle at delivery.

I don't think buyers in $100K market are worried about price. But the expectation for a fully sorted vehicle, I agree 100%. Not everyone is an early adopter and I don't think many buyers are - this forum does not represent the typical luxury EV buyer. My wife will know the vehicle is solid when I let her drive the Gravity - I drove her Polestar while it was getting sorted out. Now, the Polestar is HER car and she loves it.

 

[The_Don]

I might be doing mental gymnastics with this, but maybe not the worst thing if Gravity sales aren't that high this year. They won't be able to achieve economies of scale until the midsize starts production anyways, so any incremental sales between now and then will just compound their losses.

 

[Dolphins4ever]

Forget layoffs, their guidance of only 25k to 27k cars produced in 2026 isn't encouraging!

Agree. I may have missed it, but these are now production for global sales. Is casa grande running near capacity at this level? I always heard that if a plant falls below 70mph percent of capacity fixed costs crush them or is the design made for lowish scale production?

 

[Dolphins4ever]

the photograph says midsize robotaxi in 2029. Also in the investor call Winterhoff said that Gravity robotaxis are scheduled for delivery this year

The uber/nuro deal is with gravity, the image depicts midsize platform robotaxi. Seems different, is this copying Tesla and selling cybercabs to individuals?

 

[illopp00]

Agree. I may have missed it, but these are now production for global sales. Is casa grande running near capacity at this level? I always heard that if a plant falls below 70mph percent of capacity fixed costs crush them or is the design made for lowish scale production?

They are guiding pretty conservatively, but the primary bottleneck is cash burn, service center capacity, generally higher prices, and studio center locations (they can't really do volume sales direct to consumer in a lot of states and these may not be aligned with metro areas that have the median income to buy their cars). I'd like to see some British or Euro journalist starting to get Gravities to indicate they are making some progress launching in EU this year.

 

[borski]

The uber/nuro deal is with gravity, the image depicts midsize platform robotaxi. Seems different, is this copying Tesla and selling cybercabs to individuals?

No.

 

[Need4Sleep]

Having been employed or associated with the car industry for 45 years, I can assure you the design of midsize is complete for metal parts and most interior parts. Small moldings (wheel well trim, interior trim) may not be finalized, but tooling for body panels and large interior parts (dash, consoles, door panels) are finalized. They are putting together vehicles, virtually all handmade, with pre-production tooling - they aren't going to change sail panels or bends and creases in the major parts. Production tooling is years in the making, so they know what the car is going to look like.

What amazes me is we haven't seen spy shots coming out of the factory - with the "Big Three" ( I know, I know...) someone on the factory floor would already have sold some pics to a blog

I feel like you've probably seen this image or some version of it like a million times, thought you'd get a kick out of it

Bringing it back more in line with the topic, during the investor's call, Winterhoff kept on stressing how much of a big change midsize's cost structure will be like. I'm genuinely curious to see what Lucid has done if they keep bringing up this point.

Could we be seeing multiple welds replaced with larger high-pressure die castings? More use of injection-molded plastics? Part reduction by designing individual parts to serve more than one purpose? More parts sharing across the the entire lineup, from the Pure to Grand Touring (maybe even to a Sapphire variant if it were to materialize)? A supplier-agnostic battery architecture?

 

[HC_79]

I feel like you've probably seen this image or some version of it like a million times, thought you'd get a kick out of it
View attachment 36973

Bringing it back more in line with the topic, during the investor's call, Winterhoff kept on stressing how much of a big change midsize's cost structure will be like. I'm genuinely curious to see what Lucid has done if they keep bringing up this point.

Could we be seeing multiple welds replaced with larger high-pressure die castings? More use of injection-molded plastics? Part reduction by designing individual parts to serve more than one purpose? More parts sharing across the the entire lineup, from the Pure to Grand Touring (maybe even to a Sapphire variant if it were to materialize)? A supplier-agnostic battery architecture?

I believe Winterhoff has said in the past that it’s got half the bill of materials compared to US rivals and fewer parts than the Model Y.

 

[Need4Sleep]

I believe Winterhoff has said in the past that it’s got half the bill of materials compared to US rivals and fewer parts than the Model Y.

Half the BoM and fewer parts? Insane!

I hope they'll reveal more of this at the investor day!

 

[dbsb3233]

Gravity is a commercial flop but will always have a place with enthusiasts I think. If you like EVs and you like 3 row SUVs, and you can get one without problems, then it’s for you.

I wouldn't say the Gravity as a vehicle is a flop. It's first year roll-out execution was a flop though, plagued with delays and (fixable) software bugs. $100k luxury vehicles are never gonna have huge sales numbers, so even with a perfect rollout it would only be in the 10's of 000s.

If by "commercial flop" you mean in the context of profitability, yes, I don't think that was ever in reach with just their 2nd model. But it better be in reach with the 3rd (Earth) no later than year 3.

 

[DreamTour]

Guidance seems like very conservative forecasting from an interim CEO who owns the number this year and wants to under promise / over deliver instead of what they've been doing all the way till now. Needs to win over credibility and has no benefit to pump the stock at this stage. Would be better off showing overperformance and evidence of progress later in the year when they might actually want to raise more $$.

E.g. has enough business sense to manage expectations.