Is this the bottom for LCID?

[gaskiller]

Not sure chest thumping about debt facilities is quite the win he thinks it is.

Also, if it falls below $5, any institutional investors that are left may bail - in addition to delisting worries, this is often one of the reasons for a reverse split. Funds can own below $5 but often don’t want to because of trading issues and cost.

Rivian stock up 50% this year, Lucid down 60%

Self explanatory on how they are managing their companies. Something drastic has to happen in management. They are spending too much and still not executing as needed.

Hopefully they learn, 3rd times a charm?

 

[Adnillien]

They are spending too much

Please elaborate, I have not seen you present any evidence of Lucid spending too much. Is Lucid spending too much on R&D, Marketing, Inventory, factories or salaries. Lucid has been very clear about their cash burn and the amount of cash needed to bring the midsize into production.

 

[The_Don]

Rivian stock up 50% this year, Lucid down 60%

Self explanatory on how they are managing their companies. Something drastic has to happen in management. They are spending too much and still not executing as needed.

Hopefully they learn, 3rd times a charm?

Rivian is at a very different stage in its life cycle. They've delivered 40k+ cars per year for a couple years now (which is how they've been able to achieve a gross profit) and R2 is set for delivery in 1H 2026, which should get them to ultimate profitability.

Lucid Air was never going to sell more than they've been able to because the market for luxury sedans is small (though I know early investor presentations suggest otherwise). Gravity only started achieving meaningful production in Q4 and it'll probably take them a year before they dial-in production costs. Good news is midsize is right around the corner.

 

[gaskiller]

Rivian is at a very different stage in its life cycle. They've delivered 40k+ cars per year for a couple years now (which is how they've been able to achieve a gross profit) and R2 is set for delivery in 1H 2026, which should get them to ultimate profitability.

Lucid Air was never going to sell more than they've been able to because the market for luxury sedans is small (though I know early investor presentations suggest otherwise). Gravity only started achieving meaningful production in Q4 and it'll probably take them a year before they dial-in production costs. Good news is midsize is right around the corner.

Hopefully midsize production and software won’t be a repeat. Im cautiously optimistic.

 

[Leftlane]

In all fairness Rivian stock is down about 85% since IPO compared to down 88% for LCID, so not much difference to an investor - they both torched your money.

 

[socktucker]

Rivian stock up 50% this year, Lucid down 60%

Self explanatory on how they are managing their companies. Something drastic has to happen in management. They are spending too much and still not executing as needed.

Hopefully they learn, 3rd times a charm?

I still can’t figure out if you want them to succeed or fail, shorted them, invested them, or just like to troll people with absurd takes.

But the gentleman in me will point out that the only thing Lucid and Rivian have in common is that they’re EVs. Rivian makes modestly reviewed electric pickups and SUVs. That’s it. They haven’t delivered half the stuff they promised either. It happens. Rivian also hasn’t made a dime, not a single penny. Lucid makes only two luxury vehicles, they’re a baby EV company.

Comparing Lucid to Rivian is like comparing Rivian to Tesla. They’re not different; but they aren’t the same either.

I would, and I expect some investors do too, anticipate Lucid to hover above $10. That explains the reverse stock split. If they didn’t think it could hit $10 they wouldn’t do it. If they thought it was hopeless, they’d just short it to hell, let it tank and bail. PIF could have easily destroyed the stock, picked it up for pennies on the dollar and made it private.

Instead, I think it will do exactly what it’s been doing: go up or down a buck or two for a year until we see what impact the midsize SUV has. They canned anyone remotely involved in the poor Gravity rollout. The CEO is toast. The head engineer got fired. The people that made the mistakes aren’t able to make them again.

 

[RL8]

My suggestion would be to not buy Lucid stock if you don’t have the ability or the willingness to deal with the volatility. Better off buying an index fund like VTI.

 

[gaskiller]

I still can’t figure out if you want them to succeed or fail, shorted them, invested them, or just like to troll people with absurd takes.

But the gentleman in me will point out that the only thing Lucid and Rivian have in common is that they’re EVs. Rivian makes modestly reviewed electric pickups and SUVs. That’s it. They haven’t delivered half the stuff they promised either. It happens. Rivian also hasn’t made a dime, not a single penny. Lucid makes only two luxury vehicles, they’re a baby EV company.

Comparing Lucid to Rivian is like comparing Rivian to Tesla. They’re not different; but they aren’t the same either.

I would, and I expect some investors do too, anticipate Lucid to hover above $10. That explains the reverse stock split. If they didn’t think it could hit $10 they wouldn’t do it. If they thought it was hopeless, they’d just short it to hell, let it tank and bail. PIF could have easily destroyed the stock, picked it up for pennies on the dollar and made it private.

Instead, I think it will do exactly what it’s been doing: go up or down a buck or two for a year until we see what impact the midsize SUV has. They canned anyone remotely involved in the poor Gravity rollout. The CEO is toast. The head engineer got fired. The people that made the mistakes aren’t able to make them again.

I hope you are right about firings making a difference.

 

[SSJUltra]

To answer the original question - if the mid-size Earth takes off, and sells like the Model 3 then the equity value of this company takes off because the total capacity of vehicle production will be utilized and there is a real path to profitability. If mid-size Earth doesn't succeed then the future of this business as a going concern is highly uncertain. Given how the stock has traded and the short interest, it seems as though the market is assigning a very low probability for Earth basically saving Lucid. IF there is any pull forward in the Earth timeline that could potentially be an upside catalyst and any delay is a negative catalyst. They are in a race against time and money - not dissimilar to every operating business but their timeline isn't very long given the current quarterly burn rate. Everything is fluid but we'll see what they say at their capital markets day in Q1.

 

[borski]

To answer the original question - if the mid-size Earth takes off, and sells like the Model 3 then the equity value of this company takes off because the total capacity of vehicle production will be utilized and there is a real path to profitability. If mid-size Earth doesn't succeed then the future of this business as a going concern is highly uncertain. Given how the stock has traded and the short interest, it seems as though the market is assigning a very low probability for Earth basically saving Lucid. IF there is any pull forward in the Earth timeline that could potentially be an upside catalyst and any delay is a negative catalyst. They are in a race against time and money - not dissimilar to every operating business but their timeline isn't very long given the current quarterly burn rate. Everything is fluid but we'll see what they say at their capital markets day in Q1.

You’re right. But all the bets against Lucid will win extra for those that are betting on it today *if* the market is wrong. And the market is often wrong.

That said, it’s literally a guess. Nobody can predict the future, and with all the management changes there’s a lot of hope, but no guarantees.

 

[L-Dude]

Have they replaced the head of engineering yet?

 

[tmichael]

To answer the original question - if the mid-size Earth takes off, and sells like the Model 3 then the equity value of this company takes off because the total capacity of vehicle production will be utilized and there is a real path to profitability. If mid-size Earth doesn't succeed then the future of this business as a going concern is highly uncertain. Given how the stock has traded and the short interest, it seems as though the market is assigning a very low probability for Earth basically saving Lucid. IF there is any pull forward in the Earth timeline that could potentially be an upside catalyst and any delay is a negative catalyst. They are in a race against time and money - not dissimilar to every operating business but their timeline isn't very long given the current quarterly burn rate. Everything is fluid but we'll see what they say at their capital markets day in Q1.

Based on fundamentals, you’re100% correct. I wish valuations were based on fundamentals - unfortunately, they’re not. But, if the PIF ever withdraws support, it’s over. Lucid’s future lies in the PIF’ willingness to bet on a future automobile manufacturing industry in the KSA. I remain hopeful. Plus, I have a big position in the stock - could be a mistake - hope not.

 

[gaskiller]

Based on fundamentals, you’re100% correct. I wish valuations were based on fundamentals - unfortunately, they’re not. But, if the PIF ever withdraws support, it’s over. Lucid’s future lies in the PIF’ willingness to bet on a future automobile manufacturing industry in the KSA. I remain hopeful. Plus, I have a big position in the stock - could be a mistake - hope not.

Saudi won’t give up on Lucid, that is quite obvious.

Investors just don’t trust management anymore. The constant misses and mistakes.

And the fact that there is no news on a permanent CEO doesn’t help.
They have one final chance!

 

[gaskiller]

I also think a lot of retail investors lost interest in this stock, don’t blame them!