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What is your perspective on the "flood" of used Lucid Air Lease Returns affecting Lucid's Sales in the coming years?

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BS8899

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Just wondering about how the many Lucid Air lease-returns affect Lucid's new car (Gravity) sales.

I haven't done any modeling.
 
It seems like Lucid’s plan is to deemphasize the Air and push towards the gravity. More people want that sized vehicle. So the used Airs probably only affect the very small Air market.
 
nashvillelucid said:
It seems like Lucid’s plan is to deemphasize the Air and push towards the gravity. More people want that sized vehicle. So the used Airs probably only affect the very small Air market.
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That's certainly one perspective.

If I can buy a 3 year old Air for $35,000 to experience Lucid's superb driving experience and a decked out R2 for $55000 for my daily usage, that's still less than a Gravity!
 
I thought Lucid implied most would switch over to Gravity....They probably have a decent idea of how many Air leases switched over. Used Airs have become quite affordable to a new group of buyers, although that still doesn't fix the service capacity convenience factors.
 
I think it mostly comes down to product and customer experience. Every car company deals with lease returns - it’s not unique to Lucid. The difference is whether those customers actually want another one when the lease ends. Based on my experience so far, I wouldn't buy another Lucid, but that could change.

If people like the Air and had a good lease experience, those returns could turn into an upgrade to the Gravity. If not, they’ll just go somewhere else. I don’t see lease returns as inherently negative.
 
Agree with @agarner that in general, lease returns vs new buyers are two separate segments of buyers. The lease returns expand the market to folks that want to reduce exposure but still sample an EV. The sedan segment has been in decline for years so to me it would be irresponsible to prioritize the Air over Gravity and related future product.
 
The market for sedans is much smaller than the SUV market. And the Air is a niche sedan within that market. Brand loyalty is something that's built over time and it's hard to say how many Air purchasers will stick with Lucid and move to the Gravity. Add to that the fact that lease customers are different than those that purchase new or pre-owned vehicles. They move from vehicle to vehicle every few years and like to drive different things. They tend to be more focused on payments and incentives which can vary from vehicle to vehicle and brand to brand.

In short, who knows.
 
Northpointe said:
The market for sedans is much smaller than the SUV market. And the Air is a niche sedan within that market. Brand loyalty is something that's built over time and it's hard to say how many Air purchasers will stick with Lucid and move to the Gravity. Add to that the fact that lease customers are different than those that purchase new or pre-owned vehicles. They move from vehicle to vehicle every few years and like to drive different things. They tend to be more focused on payments and incentives which can vary from vehicle to vehicle and brand to brand.

In short, who knows.
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Here is a recent post. No accidents.


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BS8899 said:
Just wondering about how the many Lucid Air lease-returns affect Lucid's new car (Gravity) sales.

I haven't done any modeling.
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I don't see used Airs being more available as having a big impact on the Gravity. Some people leaving an Air lease might decide to buy a Gravity, and that could be the biggest impact. It does seem like the leases expiring now are from earlier in the Air sales ramp, and the absolute numbers probably aren't all that high relative to the expected sales of the Gravity. I'd expect that the number of people cross shopping a used Air and a new Gravity probably isn't large. Longer term, used Lucid vehicles will expose more people to the brand, and raise awareness amongst people considering a new vehicle. Hopefully in a positive way. 🤣
 
How many Airs have sold in total over its entire lifetime? 25k? Whatever it is, it won't be much of a flood, and I'd guess a decent percentage of the people turning in their Air lease are going to a Gravity. I don't see a potential Gravity customer (5-7 passenger SUV ~$100k) cross-shopping a used Lucid Air sedan. Lucid's issue is not Air lease turn-ins, it's everything else (key fobs that don't work, bad software, supply chain issues, terrible marketing, increasing competition from BMW et al, did I mention key fobs that don't work....)
 
There's a very limited number of Lucid Air off-lease vehicles available. Those that do hit the market are introducing the brand to a whole new potential customer set. The more they are seen on the road, the more interest there will likely be in the brand. I expect it to be a non-issue (says the guy who bought a 3-year old AGT lease return). FWIW - I would not have bought an AGT at sticker price. Too many other options available at that price point and TBH if I spend that much on a car it's probably fiberglass with a V8 and a retractable hardtop. But at the price I bought mine it was a friggin' steal and a ridiculously great car and value.
 
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