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I'm glad that this thread exists, consolidating the doomposting into one convenient location.
Target $0
- Thread starter sri
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Ramping the service infrastructure is critical for Lucid. The CEO said so on the last earnings call. I agree with you that it is entirely possible to happen before Cosmos sells in numbers in the US. The fact that Lucid undertook cold-weather testing in New Zealand during the North American summer implies some urgency to get Cosmos certified by regulatory agencies. It's more expensive to do that. If they were really far behind, they could have waited until winter in the US for cold-weather testing.
Getting Cosmos built and into the hands of paying customers will depend on too many variables to list, but they mostly fall under four general pillars: When will AMP-2 be ready? When will Cosmos be at spec, ready to build? Is the software ready? Are suppliers ready to deliver parts in quantity?
I could be wrong, but it seems like getting AMP-2 ready may be the easy part. Fixing their systemic problems (software, service, reliability, etc) has been the big problem.
Although that could just be my "existing customer" bias talking hoping they get all that fixed. I really only care about Cosmos for the sake of keeping the company in business to service my Gravity for the next decade.
I often forget that my perspective is that of a disappointed current customer.
Just chill out folks, if you think Lucid is doomed, short the stock. If you think they will be fine, buy the stock and average down. If you don’t know, then either sell and move on or just keep your stock and hope for a revival. It’s as simple as that.
The constant posting every time the stock drops doesn’t change anything. I’m just averaging down. I believe in the company long term and I’m holding my stock another 10 years so don’t care what the stock does in the short term.
Turnaround takes time, it’s doesn’t happen at a snap of a finger.
The constant posting every time the stock drops doesn’t change anything. I’m just averaging down. I believe in the company long term and I’m holding my stock another 10 years so don’t care what the stock does in the short term.
Turnaround takes time, it’s doesn’t happen at a snap of a finger.
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Well, that is what "Investor Chat" is about. People coming here to celebrate on big moves up, and vent on big moves down, is pretty much why this subsection of the forum exists. Nothing wrong with that.
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Indeed it is. But we are witnessing the aftermath of the Q2 earnings call and its revelations.
Four closing lows in a week and a 33% month while Tesla and Rivian held up. I get the frustration. But nothing has happened since August 4. The Q2 earnings call moved Cosmos to late 2027, starting in Saudi Arabia, with Casa Grande six to twelve months behind, and every session since has been the market digesting that one event on ordinary volume with no news. That's a grind, not a repricing, and grinds don't tell you anything new. It is still painful to watch in real time.
Our common shares stand in line behind about $5.5 billion of debt and PIF preferred stock, and that line grows every quarter whether or not anything happens. So the stock can drift lower on no news. Watching it daily doesn't change that. It's just time and money.
What matters comes November 4 with Q3 results: how fast they're borrowing from PIF, whether inventory is coming down, and whether the filing clearly restates PIF's commitment to fund the company. Then year-end guidance, where I'll be looking for a specific, dated commitment to build Cosmos at Casa Grande, not just a general statement that US production will follow. Tariffs make Saudi-built Cosmos unworkable here, so that commitment is the whole US question.
Until then, the daily price is noise. Usual caveat: I'm a happy Lucid Air GT owner and an unhappy shareholder, not a financial advisor, so take this as one guy's read and not stock advice.
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Back to the 3’s end of week
I feel bad for people who keep averaging down 15 14, 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 etc
There are way better places to park your money long-term
I feel bad for people who keep averaging down 15 14, 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 etc
There are way better places to park your money long-term
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I got out myself. Might jump back in down the road
And so everyone thinks…..no one can predict the future.
But at 1/14th market cap of Rivian, it’s very tasty.
Napoli gets full performance incentive if Lucid reaches a 17.5 billion market cap and stays there for 45 days on June 2031. So expect the market cap to be at least 20 billion. That will be a share price of $50. Even if you cut that by half due to dilution as a worst case scenario, $25.
If you believe turnaround will happen, then it’s worth a serious look.
There will be some dilution in the future, it’s just we don’t know how it is structured. Napoli did mention it will be favorable to shareholders. I expect Uber to increase their stake after Robotaxi release. They are committing 10 billion to robotaxis.
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I've just been holding. Not ready to dump and run but certainly not going to keep pumping money into a company that almost constantly fails to deliver on its targets. When Lucid starts meeting its goals and targets then I will jump back in but until then you can get better returns elsewhere. Not like the stock is going to magically jump to $20 overnight so when it starts to climb back up you can still jump back in and make some money (hopefully)
Lucid has less than one hundred 2026 Gravity models in inventory in the US. They overproduced roughly five thousand 2026 model year vehicles in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 combined. Some are probably Airs, but looks like they have sold almost all their 2026 inventory. Things seem to be moving up. If cost cuts materialize as Napoli mentioned, should end the year on a high note.
Finally selling off their final hundred or so 2026 Gravitys so late in the year is not a sign of "things moving up" because it has required large incentives to move inventory. Canceling a shift/laying off production staff at AMP-1 to reduce costs/payroll is not good for a company in its growth phase. The latest earnings call made it pretty clear that they're cutting costs so they have enough money to make it to Cosmos's launch. That's not a reassuring sign. It's a sign that this company is in survival mode.
Yes, PIF can always invest more money into the company (further diluting shares in the process) but CEER is them hedging their bet. If CEER, somehow (and I doubt they would), shows more promise, Lucid might be cut off from further funding. Or even just delayed funding if PIF wants CEER to succeed more. Even if CEER ends up failing, it still doesn't change the fact that Lucid's future is about as murky as it's ever been.
The only thing that matters for the company is making sure Cosmos is bulletproof when it goes on sale. And even then, it might not matter if they're aiming for an audience that isn't large enough to meet their (and PIF's) revenue target.
For your education…..
You cannot run a car industry without parts suppliers. Historically, major auto suppliers (like tire makers, battery component manufacturers, and electronics providers) wouldn't move to Saudi Arabia because there wasn't enough production volume to justify it. [1]
- By anchoring both Lucid's international manufacturing plant and Ceer’s mega-factory right next to each other in the King Abdullah Economic City (KAEC), the Kingdom creates a massive cluster of demand.[1, 2]
- Their combined manufacturing volume gives top-tier global suppliers a lucrative reason to co-locate in Saudi Arabia, building a localized supply base
That was for Gravity overproduction though. Cosmos (which is their next chapter) is built in KSA. Why would they need excess capacity here? Smart move I think. Spend the money on service.