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Reframing investing in Lucid Apr 26' - it's 0-0

Lucid market cap - 2.39 billion, Debt 3.2 billion, expected revenue in 2026, 2.25 billion. production capacity at both sites- 245k vehicles.

Rivian market cap is about 20 billion, with expected revenue 6.9 billion in 2026. Debt 6.65 billion. This excludes the DOE 6.6 billion loan- which will be drawed in 2028 to fund Georgia plant expansion. Annual capacity right now is 215k vehicles.

Either Rivian stock is too expensive or Lucid is too cheap…..

If Lucid reaches 2 billion revenue, expect stock to fly. Average selling price of vehicles right now in Q1 is around 92k. As gravity sales increase , and air proportion decreases, If they can sell 20-21k vehicles, they will make it. That is 6k vehicles every quarter.
 
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DreamTour said:
Translation: Science projects like the "Augmented Reality HUD" are cool, but if that distracts from executing software fundamentals it's not going to be prioritized. Imagine if the software resources that were put against HUD were put against making the keys work?
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I cannot think of a more fundamentally polar opposite dumb idea to spend money on than an AR Hud against Autonomous driving. Why on earth would a self-driving car have a HUD? I did remember from the Investors meetings they did discuss the view of the future of cars being pretty binary split - either you are driver and like performance, dynamics and feel or you want an appliance that drives for you and they could be able to do different vehicles for both (ie Air Pure or Sapphire and then Luna robotaxi).
 
illopp00 said:
I cannot think of a more fundamentally polar opposite dumb idea to spend money on than an AR Hud against Autonomous driving. Why on earth would a self-driving car have a HUD? I did remember from the Investors meetings they did discuss the view of the future of cars being pretty binary split - either you are driver and like performance, dynamics and feel or you want an appliance that drives for you and they could be able to do different vehicles for both (ie Air Pure or Sapphire and then Luna robotaxi).
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Actually, I like the HUD in my Hyundai. Wouldn’t mind having one in my Lucid.
 
illopp00 said:
I cannot think of a more fundamentally polar opposite dumb idea to spend money on than an AR Hud against Autonomous driving. Why on earth would a self-driving car have a HUD? I did remember from the Investors meetings they did discuss the view of the future of cars being pretty binary split - either you are driver and like performance, dynamics and feel or you want an appliance that drives for you and they could be able to do different vehicles for both (ie Air Pure or Sapphire and then Luna robotaxi).
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Going all-in on a bet that autonomous driving works out is a pretty high risk. I imagine they think they need to maintain a competitive set of features for human drivers until autonomous driving is proven. After all, there's an established track record of autonomous driving taking a lot longer to be developed that people promise.
 
DreamTour said:
Science projects like the "Augmented Reality HUD" are cool, but if that distracts from executing software fundamentals it's not going to be prioritized.
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Or, offload it to a third party and use in house to do exactly what the rest of your post suggested. "Do what you do well and outsource what you don't"
 
gaskiller said:
Agree

Now it’s all about sales/ service/ supply chain as they get the Cosmos ready. They know if get burned again with software, they will all be without jobs.

No need to rush Cosmos, but they should speed up validation in case a last minute hiccup occurs. Be ready for production in Q4. And no monkey business like the dozen gravities they “ sold” in 2024, right Rawlinson?
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I will be shocked if they produce customer-ready vehicles this year. "Starting production" does not equal "producing vehicles for customer delivery". They've learned what "a rush to customer deliveries" can do...
 
Lucid is a large enough company to be working on several things at the same time. Problems and opportunities don't need to be tackled sequentially, nor would they get done faster just by putting more people on them. Having new senior management will hopefully make sure all the things being worked on have sufficient value, have adequate resources to accomplish them, and are getting executed on in a timely manner.
 
gaskiller said:
You would think they would announce massive increase in service centers on prep for midsize
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Or a massive increase in mobile service. It's a novel experiment that works to some extent for Tesla - you can't be shipping vehicles around the country on flatbeds or, as in my case, having mobile drive 2.5 hours each way to address issues - especially just to swap summer and winter tires.

I had my local tire guys swap summer to winter, told Lucid about it, nothing they could do on the software side, swapped winters back to summers, told Lucid about it and they said we're back to where it was delivered. So the odometer was off by some miniscule amount for 4 months - I'm not worried, not was Lucid.
 
Hammerthyme said:
Lucid is a large enough company to be working on several things at the same time. Problems and opportunities don't need to be tackled sequentially, nor would they get done faster just by putting more people on them. Having new senior management will hopefully make sure all the things being worked on have sufficient value, have adequate resources to accomplish them, and are getting executed on in a timely manner.
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The biggest problem is their cars are still locking major reviewers out of their cars 4 years after release. It would be a meme if it wasn’t so incredibly frustrating.
 
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