Q4/25 EV Deliveries...

[Buffalo Bob]

If it is good news, maybe they’re optimizing the share price impact by releasing the info tomorrow instead of on a weekend.

The problem with your speculation is that it suggests there would be an alternate course of action if it were bad news, and you just can't go there. (I also trust that Lucid would never put itself in that untenable position.) My ONLY suggestion is that, like Rivian, Lucid should be in a position to report production and deliveries within 24 hours of quarter-end. As simple as it is to track two SKUs, two final assembly points, and a direct sales model, I have to believe that they already are in that position.) Delaying the tally of information, or choosing to sit on it for a while typically leads to investors relying on third party estimates. When the data is released, not breaking it down into its components leads to speculation about poor sales of the new kid on the block. IMO, the best thing for a company to do is to control the narrative by removing the cause for speculation. Whether the story is a good one or a bad one really should have nothing to do with it, but in this case I agree that it's quite likely a good one.

 

[Adnillien]

As we expected, production of 18378 for the year. Just above the lowered target set by Lucid.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2008176890578641043

 

[prgarg]

Almost 3k diff between built and delivered... hope that's just a sign of year end timing and not low demand for inventory vehicles

 

[Adnillien]

Almost 3k diff between built and delivered... hope that's just a sign of year end timing and not low demand for inventory vehicles

The cumulative inventory is about 3.7 months of deliveries which is better than it was at the end of 2024. Even if it is not out of line with prior quarters, it does seem a bit high for a direct to consumer sales model.

 

[LucidfanAZ]

The difference likely include vehicles in transit to KSA as recent flyovers showed many cars sitting outside the SKD building at AMP-1.

 

[Smorgasbord]

The difference likely include vehicles in transit to KSA as recent flyovers showed many cars sitting outside the SKD building at AMP-1.

Yeah, Tesla went through this in its Model 3 ramp up and then decided to batch deliveries to different locales to minimize the number of in-transit at the EOQ. This involved shipping to further away locales first and then in those a day or two drive from the Factory.

What's the story on international for Lucid? For Europe or Middle East, those cars can sit on boats for weeks.

 

[Adnillien]

The difference likely include vehicles in transit to KSA as recent flyovers showed many cars sitting outside the SKD building at AMP-1.

Vehicles in transit to KSA are Work in Progress and are not counted in completed production.

 

[RajD]

Vehicles in transit to KSA are Work in Progress and are not counted in completed production.

I imagine that deliveries are not counted until a customer has the car, right? I wonder if Lucid had trouble getting all of those cars shipped to delivery centers nationally and then in the hands of the customers that ordered them. AMP-1 footage confirmed a ton of cars waiting to be trucked away. Would that explain the gap?

 

[Adnillien]

I imagine that deliveries are not counted until a customer has the car, right? I wonder if Lucid had trouble getting all of those cars shipped to delivery centers nationally and then in the hands of the customers that ordered them. AMP-1 footage confirmed a ton of cars waiting to be trucked away. Would that explain the gap?

I think you are correct. Lucid ramped the factory output very effectively but was behind in ramping up transportation logistics, PDI capacity and delivery. I hear Lucid is doing PDI for the states supported by Scottsdale at the old Coolidge Nikola factory. I need to get over there and see what is happening at that site.

 

[GMan]

@Adnillien what does PDI mean?

 

[Sandvinsd]

We picked up our Gravity on 12/30, so we helped the Q4 numbers
Now a 2 Lucid family.

 

[thyname]

@Adnillien what does PDI mean?

PDI = Pre Delivery Inspection

 

[L-Dude]

@Adnillien what does PDI mean?

I believe it is Pre Delivery Inspection

 

[merveille07]

One thing that I have yet to understand is why Lucid stock get no love.
Lucid miss guidance: the stock crashes
Lucid meets or beat guidance: stock barely move or still go down

I would love someone with stock acumen to help me understand the strange behavior of Lucid stock compared to peers.

 

[Buffalo Bob]

One thing that I have yet to understand is why Lucid stock get no love.
Lucid miss guidance: the stock crashes
Lucid meets or beat guidance: stock barely move or still go down

I would love someone with stock acumen to help me understand the strange behavior of Lucid stock compared to peers.

I don't profess to have stock acumen, but I think the biggest factor is that Lucid is a very easy target for short sellers to manipulate. The vast majority of the outstanding shares belong to the PIF, and are not actively traded, so that leaves a relatively thin trading volume for shorts to go after, and the sophisticated ones have some very effective ways to both program-trade stocks and influence the narrative about the company's prospects.

 

[gaskiller]

One thing that I have yet to understand is why Lucid stock get no love.
Lucid miss guidance: the stock crashes
Lucid meets or beat guidance: stock barely move or still go down

I would love someone with stock acumen to help me understand the strange behavior of Lucid stock compared to peers.

Stock will only turn around when Wall Street decides….just like they did with Rivian…..once positive momentum is sustained. With threat of another dilution, shorts will still be all over this stock. Once they pass that phase, I’m positive the stock will rocket. It’s accumulation phase for me. Just taking advantage and buying every paycheck.

Never sell here, it’s stupid to do that…..selling near the bottom is the best way to lose money.

 

[illopp00]

Right, for the stock it's all about Cash Flow/Cash Burn compared to runway. Until that troughs and bottoms, which isn't likely until post dilution and mid-size ramps a bit. Unless they report that despite higher deliveries they managed to reduce cash burn because of economies of scale. And I agree with @Buffalo Bob, the company and EVs are just an easy target to hate on right now..