Q2 ‘25 Production/ Deliveries

[LucidfanAZ]

https://media.lucidmotors.com/en/ne...ies-sets-date-for-second-quarter-2025-results

Missed analyst estimates but up YoY and QoQ by a healthy margin. My main concern is that they will drastically reduce their 20k target on their earnings call. Not good for stock price.

 

[HC_79]

It was always going to be about 12K for the Air. It’s about as much as the car has in it (especially in the US) for a YoY basis. So unless they can do 4000 Gravity Q3 & in Q4 it’s going to be a tough number to achieve. Not sure if Gravity is still parts constrained but if it is, then I would expect a downward revision is coming in the earnings call in August.

 

[NoseyReporter]

I said the run rate didn't make sense months ago.... Not at the rate they were ramping.

 

[TahoeMichael]

I said the run rate didn't make sense months ago.... Not at the rate they were ramping.

For the first 6 months of the year, they effectively were not ramping Gravity at all, only beginning deliveries right at the end of June. I think no one has any clue what their production and delivery rate will be now that they've started delivery. It's entirely possible that they're hopelessly behind, and cannot catch up. But it's also possible that they have worked through the quality control process that motivated them to initially predict an extremely slow ramp, and will now be producing at a fairly high rate. We'll have to wait and see. The delay in delivery probably means that missing their target is more likely than not, however.

 

[Pragmatic]

Disappointed they did not break out production and delivery by models.

 

[thyname]

It was always going to be about 12K for the Air. It’s about as much as the car has in it (especially in the US) for a YoY basis. So unless they can do 4000 Gravity Q3 & in Q4 it’s going to be a tough number to achieve.

I looked at the numbers (deliveries). I think they can still deliver 20,000 in 2025 (Air + Gravity). Typically, and not just Lucid, second part of the year, especially Q4, have the highest sales. Maybe wishful thinking, but I am still hopeful they will hit the 20K deliveries target.

 

[merveille07]

I looked at the numbers (deliveries). I think they can still deliver 20,000 in 2025 (Air + Gravity). Typically, and not just Lucid, second part of the year, especially Q4, have the highest sales. Maybe wishful thinking, but I am still hopeful they will hit the 20K deliveries target.

I think it's 20K production, which I believe they will hit, not sure is the goal is 20K for delivery too. Normally, you should deliver more than you make, but let's see how it goes.

 

[merveille07]

Disappointed they did not break out production and delivery by models.

I respectfully disagree with your assessment. I think it's a great number taking into consideration all the unknown they have to deal with. I love Peter, but I think he did a big disservice to Lucid by rushing that December delivery just to get his bonus.

 

[NoseyReporter]

14000/ (365/2)

Yes I know it's not that simple but entertain the idea. That's ~76 cars per day, every single day until the year ends.

6000/ (365/2)

They are currently at a production rate of slightly half 76 per day, ~33

Let's just make it simple and assume for H1, all 33 cars produced per day are Airs. If Lucid maintains that rate, they produce 12k Airs for 2025. It also means they need to produce ~43 Gravities per day from July 1st to the end of the year.

33 Airs per day
43 Gravities per day

They obviously are not producing 43 Gravities per day.

I was shocked they reiterate their 20K target on their last call. Unless these fly overs show a SHIT ton of Gravities flying out the door Lucid is going to revise down their target by a significant amount.

6k + 30(182.5) + 15 (182.5) or roughly 13-14k for 2025.

They really need to ramp Gravity to a significant production rate per day. Or have a HUGE sustained surge for Airs, but they just made the Air more expensive, right?

Full Year Production numbers:
2022 - 7180
2023 - 8428
2024 - 9029
2025 - 20,000?!?!?!

 

[NoseyReporter]

Last thing, I like the product and I'll be snatching up a Gravity here myself; as soon as they are willing to sell me one.

I'm just being extremely critical about the smoke being blown up our asses here.

 

[illopp00]

and I think the ratio is typically 20% GT, 40% Touring, 40% Pure. So if they open Gravity Touring orders I will start to believe they are back on track.

 

[MJAir23TheGoat]

Bought some qty of LCiD yesterday at $2.02 level. I don’t see 20 K deliveries happening, but stock is so cheap. At current levels it’s worth a flyer long-term.

 

[Genghis]

Last thing, I like the product and I'll be snatching up a Gravity here myself; as soon as they are willing to sell me one.

I'm just being extremely critical about the smoke being blown up our asses here.

We’ve seen this 3 years in a row now. Starts with aggressive production and delivery numbers in Q1 earnings call, then followed by downforecasting these numbers in subsequent quarters.

 

[DBV]

Will be curious of when the $7500 lease incentive goes away of what Lucid does and how it affects their sales numbers. That makes a big difference on a lease. Of course other EV’s mfg’s have the same issue, but think it really helped Lucid, since they are still just getting going.

 

[RMSko]

Will be curious of when the $7500 lease incentive goes away of what Lucid does and how it affects their sales numbers. That makes a big difference on a lease. Of course other EV’s mfg’s have the same issue, but think it really helped Lucid, since they are still just getting going.

I’m wondering the exact same thing. I think it will certainly impact EV leasing numbers. The only offset is the $10k interest deduction for American made cars, which would include Lucid, but there are AGI limitations and I would think it likely that most people buying a Lucid exceed the AGI limits.

 

[illopp00]

The tax cuts would help with discretionary income, but rate cuts would help immensely on getting Lease and Financing payments down much more than the tax credit, I was not a fan of it distorting the market and resale anyways. Would be great if they found a permanent CEO sometime soon too.

 

[Genghis]

Finally a 'Buy' rating from an analyst after meeting with the CFO. Still doesn't answer the question of 7,000 20,000 to year end?

https://www.investing.com/news/anal...nchmark-despite-q2-delivery-miss-93CH-4130360

 

[californiaboy935]

Finally a 'Buy' rating from an analyst after meeting with the CFO. Still doesn't answer the question of 7,000 20,000 to year end?

https://www.investing.com/news/anal...nchmark-despite-q2-delivery-miss-93CH-4130360

They maintained their buy rating. More need to get onboard, tho. Excited to see the $5.00 buy rating, but need more firms to up the rating.