Maybe Wall street agrees with Mr Napoli? Too early to tell.
Marc Winteroff out
- Thread starter gaskiller
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Besides watching the issues reported and resolved here, I have been daily watching the inventory for the builds I am interested in both for volume changes and price/incentives over several months before just recently committing to leasing one just a couple days ago w/delivery on 26 my hopefully within about a week. Mid month incentive increases have not been uncommon, but they are usually small compared to the total incentive package. End of quarter, mid month incentives are usually a bit better and that is true now too, but not crazy better additional $500 merch credit and $1,000 demo/sales add on credit. Since they lowered the trade in credit $1,000 from last month this is not wild. They are approving site select $5,000 credit more freely, I think as they added it on to my build which was from 3/26. That change of site select from the traditional $3k to $5k is the major delta.
They have a good amount of inventory, yes, but at least for the small gt gravity slice I have been looking at, it has been shrinking at a brisk pace the last 30 days. I know it is not sustainable and I worry about the touring trim being a flop (range vs price proposition makes no sense), but even if they have to give up their margin at this point, monetizing the ~$billion in inventory into cash back on hand is essential because nobody thinks they are going to be profitable until solidly after cosmos ramp has occurred and cash is needed.
I was not impressed with mark as interim ceo, but can’t evaluate him at all on operations, hope this is an ok move with the cosmos/midsize platform being forced to ramp at a new, international plant because of pif requirement. This feels like a logistical nightmare oh, and there is a part-time war next door too!
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My experience was the same last month.
One persons horrible experience doesn’t mean the whole company is doomed. It’s human nature to hate on a company when you had such an experience. I won’t fault him for that.OK, OK. Don't know if you are trying to rein in @socktucker or actually think opinion needs to be based on a independent source, however he has certainly had a horrible ownership experience and is entitled to his opinion. No offense meant.
For every one horrible experience, there are 1000 awesome experiences!
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I'm not surprised they let Winterhoff go. I actually expected that would be one of the first moves. I never expected Dlala to be shown the door. This company has proven its engineering prowess, but hasn't delivered from an operational standpoint. So at its most elementary, you could say Dlala's job contributed to what the company does right and Winterhoff's job didn't (or at least didn't fix their problems with supply chain, service, manufacturing operations, etc).
Now we're left with a still nascent EV company in an extremely competitive market who must focus on innovative engineering in both hardware and software if they want to succeed. They've seemingly eliminated all of their hardware innovators, perhaps never had the right software innovators, and installed a guy from an elevator company. To be fair, I don't know much about him but last I checked elevator companies were neither highly innovative nor particularly competitive.
All of this is just my personal opinion but I'm really at a loss as to what they're trying to do. Turning Lucid into an elevator company cranking out predictable low cost widgets is not going to get people to switch from Tesla/Toyota/Honda/BMW..... to a car company they've literally never heard of. They don't need to focus on profitability as the only target right now. Starting a new car company is a monumental endeavor and if they don't focus on long term innovation, it won't matter if they squeak out 2 quarters of better financial performance.
Now we're left with a still nascent EV company in an extremely competitive market who must focus on innovative engineering in both hardware and software if they want to succeed. They've seemingly eliminated all of their hardware innovators, perhaps never had the right software innovators, and installed a guy from an elevator company. To be fair, I don't know much about him but last I checked elevator companies were neither highly innovative nor particularly competitive.
All of this is just my personal opinion but I'm really at a loss as to what they're trying to do. Turning Lucid into an elevator company cranking out predictable low cost widgets is not going to get people to switch from Tesla/Toyota/Honda/BMW..... to a car company they've literally never heard of. They don't need to focus on profitability as the only target right now. Starting a new car company is a monumental endeavor and if they don't focus on long term innovation, it won't matter if they squeak out 2 quarters of better financial performance.
I’m not talking about my personal experience at all. That is irrelevant to the stock price. I’m talking about the reported news and what I think is going to happen.
I’m also tempted to buy 1000 shares just cuz.
If you were the CEO, what steps would you take currently to turn things around? And I mean realistic steps.
Yeah, I’m glad old school has gone. They fubbed the Air and Gravity release. Keeping them on for the midsize is suicide.
Right now cutting bloated costs is a must. Everything else is secondary. You can’t spend your way into profit when demand is not what you expected. You pivot. And they need to get rid of the old team.
I have had one of the awesome experiences.
Accountability... investors have been asking for it the last few years.
The 2nd quarter call in August will be a nice change from the last 18 months.
its fair to say they don't disagree. It's not even dipped below 5.
I think at this point we can acknowledge that Gravity sales are weak. I'd say a lot of that is attributable to the Gravity's botched launch, but it really doesn't matter at this point. Assuming demand is weak, it was a good idea to cut the 2nd shift from AMP 1, even if that means they are maxing out the first shift's production capacity. They need every dollar they can get to bridge them to their midsize production ramp.
On Marc, he seems like a nice guy and it's always unfortunate to see folks laid off. I think we can all agree there are a lot of issues with Lucid's operations, and someone had to be held accountable for that.
On Marc, he seems like a nice guy and it's always unfortunate to see folks laid off. I think we can all agree there are a lot of issues with Lucid's operations, and someone had to be held accountable for that.
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Part of the recent cuts (sorry for the dark humor
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new management should really consolidate the options available on gravity and air to make manufacturing simpler and make it easier for customers to find a car they want in the inventory.
number of possible combinations of options excluding exterior color/trim appearance, wheels, and interior color:
gravity touring: 192
gravity grand touring: 32
air touring: 32
rivian r1s dual standard, tri, quad: 1
rivian r1s dual: 2 (4 if counting battery size)
cybertruck: 2
sure one can argue that with lucid you can customize the vehicle exactly to your liking, like in the german cars, but with this many variants especially for a new company trying to ramp up a lower volume product, i think it may be wiser to consolidate all options and include hardware into the vehicle and software lock some (like ddpro, similar to tesla fsd and rivian autonomy+). that way you dont build up inventory with randomly generated configurations that no one wants to buy. if an inventory car includes all the hardware already from factory, customer can just pay to activate what they want. doesnt have to be a subscription, but can be a one time purchase. also why is lucid charging for options in a 100k luxury suv that 45k model y includes for free like heated seats and steering wheel? while existing mb, porsche, and bmw customers are probably used to stuff like this, i think it is worth trying to capture some of the massive tesla and rivian customer base. there are reasons why model y and model 3 are by far the best selling evs, and i wouldnt be surprised if r2 is up there also.
number of possible combinations of options excluding exterior color/trim appearance, wheels, and interior color:
gravity touring: 192
gravity grand touring: 32
air touring: 32
rivian r1s dual standard, tri, quad: 1
rivian r1s dual: 2 (4 if counting battery size)
cybertruck: 2
sure one can argue that with lucid you can customize the vehicle exactly to your liking, like in the german cars, but with this many variants especially for a new company trying to ramp up a lower volume product, i think it may be wiser to consolidate all options and include hardware into the vehicle and software lock some (like ddpro, similar to tesla fsd and rivian autonomy+). that way you dont build up inventory with randomly generated configurations that no one wants to buy. if an inventory car includes all the hardware already from factory, customer can just pay to activate what they want. doesnt have to be a subscription, but can be a one time purchase. also why is lucid charging for options in a 100k luxury suv that 45k model y includes for free like heated seats and steering wheel? while existing mb, porsche, and bmw customers are probably used to stuff like this, i think it is worth trying to capture some of the massive tesla and rivian customer base. there are reasons why model y and model 3 are by far the best selling evs, and i wouldnt be surprised if r2 is up there also.
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Looking at elevators as just 'dumb boxes' misses what that industry actually is today. It’s actually a massive tech, logistics, and hardware-software integration ecosystem, which is exactly where Lucid needs to scale right now.
Over the last decade, the major elevator players have shifted entirely to AI and cloud connected platforms. They manage millions of connected units globally, utilizing real time sensor telemetry, predictive maintenance algorithms, and massive cloud infrastructure. It’s heavy software defined engineering, just vertical.
Furthermore, the industry is fiercely competitive on hardware efficiency and software integration-handling advanced robotics, magnetic levitation (maglev) linear motors, and destination dispatch algorithms that optimize traffic flow using complex data modeling.
Lucid has already proven it has world class foundational EV engineering. What it needs now isn't just another visionary startup inventor; it needs a CEO who understands complex global supply chains, heavy industrial scaling, high-uptime software networks, and razor-thin margin execution in an ultra-competitive global market. If this new CEO can bring that level of rigorous corporate scaling and tech integration to Lucid's manufacturing and OTA pipelines, it might be exactly the operational pivot the company needs to survive and scale.
Where is the Cosmos slated to be built?
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AMP-2 not AMP-1
If I were the CEO Lucid would have gone bankrupt before Gravity.
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I'd frame it less driven as cutting costs and more driven by: Taking the operating model down to the studs to simplify / accelerate whatever decisions needs to be made. Costs coming out is a by-product not the main goal. $100 M of headcount over 1 year is doing nothing to get Lucid to financial viability.
But what could get them there is by taking away all the noise makers. Here's how I would see it from the turnaround lens.
Prior World
1.) Focused on increasing production / volume (to amortize fixed cost)
Problem: Because they aren't ready to scale -> Service, warranty, demand etc, this is creating a negative feedback loop.
Solution Approach: Stop pour gas on the fire. Basically game theories out that gravity + air isn't going to get Lucid to cash flow positive anyways so why sort deck chairs.
2.) Lots of exec (less not but still lots) with talent, but higher coordination cost
Problem: Can't move as fast.
Solution Approach: CEO takes active operational control. (Winterhoff / Emad out actually thins out reporting lines / agency). Maybe needed at this stage to move fast or die.
To me it's shaping up like the equivalent of thinning out the playbook and trying to execute on a smaller playbook. Maybe a lower team ceiling, but one that gets wins on the board. Time will tell if there's enough space to do this given innovation in the EV space. Not a great time to be doing a turnaround, but it's better late than dead. Lucid's company history feels like a greek tragedy of "bad market timing".
But what could get them there is by taking away all the noise makers. Here's how I would see it from the turnaround lens.
Prior World
1.) Focused on increasing production / volume (to amortize fixed cost)
Problem: Because they aren't ready to scale -> Service, warranty, demand etc, this is creating a negative feedback loop.
Solution Approach: Stop pour gas on the fire. Basically game theories out that gravity + air isn't going to get Lucid to cash flow positive anyways so why sort deck chairs.
2.) Lots of exec (less not but still lots) with talent, but higher coordination cost
Problem: Can't move as fast.
Solution Approach: CEO takes active operational control. (Winterhoff / Emad out actually thins out reporting lines / agency). Maybe needed at this stage to move fast or die.
To me it's shaping up like the equivalent of thinning out the playbook and trying to execute on a smaller playbook. Maybe a lower team ceiling, but one that gets wins on the board. Time will tell if there's enough space to do this given innovation in the EV space. Not a great time to be doing a turnaround, but it's better late than dead. Lucid's company history feels like a greek tragedy of "bad market timing".