Lucid's Future Amidst The Middle East Conflict

[Aka-none]

Particularly one where an arbitrator ruled in favor of the company. But he now has two choices. He can argue his case in a court of law or air his grievances in the court of public opinion. He's obviously chosen to do the later.

To be fair he is doing both
I do admire his zeal to ensure no one else gets to experience Lucid, good or bad. I mean if someone reads his posts and misses a car like his, wheelhouse. But if someone doesn’t try a Lucid that’s was perfect in every way, or a reasonable facsimile thereof, well then that person really misses out.
Ever seen the movie The Razors Edge? Similar story

 

[Need4Sleep]

I'm not concerned about it for Lucid either. That attack was strategic to try and drive oil prices higher, which is about the only leverage they have in the conflict. And about all they're capable of anyway (at least without forcing the Saudis into a major retaliation).

Besides, Cosmos production is still a long way off. This whole situation is likely to be different by then. Probably better, although it is the Middle East so anything can happen at any time. The whole place is always one nuke away from total chaos.

Adding to this (and I want to be clear this is pure speculation on my end), given AMP-2's access to Chinese suppliers, I don't think China would be happy if shipments to a customer would get interrupted. So I can only guess that they would also have an interest in making sure Cosmos production and shipping can go on relatively smoothly ("relatively" doing a lot of heavy lifting when compared to, say, oil)

 

[gaskiller]

Adding to this (and I want to be clear this is pure speculation on my end), given AMP-2's access to Chinese suppliers, I don't think China would be happy if shipments to a customer would get interrupted. So I can only guess that they would also have an interest in making sure Cosmos production and shipping can go on relatively smoothly ("relatively" doing a lot of heavy lifting when compared to, say, oil)

Saudi has maintained a good relationship with China and Russia. Who says they don’t deepen that relationship since Trump said no when Saudi asked for help fighting the Houthis.

 

[socktucker]

Who says they don’t deepen that relationship since Trump said no when Saudi asked for help fighting the Houthis.

The current government exists solely because the USA assisted KSA in making it.

 

[gaskiller]

The current government exists solely because the USA assisted KSA in making it.

You mean US gov?

 

[socktucker]

You mean US gov?

Yes, the US supports the Saudi Military and the “internationally recognized government” in Yemen is anything but. The CIA overthrew the government in 2012 and put Hadi in (which was probably the best option at the time). The Saudis sorta support that government, but the Houthis never gave up control. Meanwhile the country is in famine, the government is terribly corrupt. It’s basically a proxy war between the USA and Iran. How much of this was really KSAs choice is debatable but they certainly wouldn’t have any interest there without USA backing. It’s a huge mess that just got messier. KSA is an economic and development powerhouse, but not really a great military.

It’s also a Sunni vs Shia issue. Iran and Yemen are Shia, Saudi is Sunni/Wahabbi.

Source: wasted a lot of time in college; have a Yemeni friend.

 

[fadooly]

From AI


Bottom line: it's not that Saudi Arabia passed over better-suited Lucid technology — it's that Ceer and Lucid were designed from the outset for different market tiers, different partner ecosystems, and different corporate structures (public vs. private), so licensing Lucid's premium EV platform into a mass-market brand likely never made strategic or legal sense in the first place.

They revealed the cars

2 halo cars

Be the first to own the exobot

CEER’s historical journey starts with the EXOBOT. Born in Saudi, engineered for tomorrow, the EXOBOT is limitless potential, unlimited ambition. Unlike any vehicle ever produced the EXOBOT is here because of you.

ceermotors.com

 

[socktucker]

They revealed the cars

2 halo cars

Be the first to own the exobot

CEER’s historical journey starts with the EXOBOT. Born in Saudi, engineered for tomorrow, the EXOBOT is limitless potential, unlimited ambition. Unlike any vehicle ever produced the EXOBOT is here because of you.

ceermotors.com

Omg
TEMU Cybertruck

 

[The_Don]

I think these look pretty cool

 

[illopp00]

Specs for the exobot sedan are pretty spicy, and suspiciously close to Sapphire/GT pack and range with some 23//24 wheels....2.6s 0-60, this doesn't seem like a low-end brand at all.

 

[Need4Sleep]

You can see what you think about the exobot vehicles, but these slides were what caught my interest the most:

In short, the involvement of Chinese suppliers and industries. The way I interpret it, these Chinese companies are not just involved financially, but they also have actual on-the-ground manufacturing lines in Saudi Arabia. This tells me that the Chinese suppliers (and to that extension, the Saudi Arabian government and the Chinese government) are legitimately serious about their engagement with manufacturing in Saudi Arabia. In turn, this gives me more confidence that the Saudi and Chinese manufacturing in the King Abdullah Economic City are in it for the long-haul, and that they are taking Lucid seriously when it comes to making sure Lucid gets what they need to ensure midsize's success.

As for my own personal speculation, I don't think China would be happy if so much of their investment and efforts into the KAEC would go up in smoke, so they would have an inherent interest in making sure manufacturing remains stable and on-track relative to everything else currently going on

 

[The_Don]

In short, the involvement of Chinese suppliers and industries. The way I interpret it, these Chinese companies are not just involved financially, but they also have actual on-the-ground manufacturing lines in Saudi Arabia. This tells me that the Chinese suppliers (and to that extension, the Saudi Arabian government and the Chinese government) are legitimately serious about their engagement with manufacturing in Saudi Arabia. In turn, this gives me more confidence that the Saudi and Chinese manufacturing in the King Abdullah Economic City are in it for the long-haul, and that they are taking Lucid seriously when it comes to making sure Lucid gets what they need to ensure midsize's success.

While this is going to be great for Lucid's European business due to competitive supplier pricing, it also means they'll likely have an expensive and complicated supply chain for the early production vehicles, which are slated for delivery in the US. They will no doubt have different supply chains for US vehicles vs global vehicles. In other words, their decision to start production in KSA will likely mean it'll take even longer to achieve profitability because Lucid's Cosmos destined for the US likely won't be profitable until they are produced in the US due to tariffs.

 

[prgarg]

You can see what you think about the exobot vehicles, but these slides were what caught my interest the most:
View attachment 41220

View attachment 41221
View attachment 41222

In short, the involvement of Chinese suppliers and industries. The way I interpret it, these Chinese companies are not just involved financially, but they also have actual on-the-ground manufacturing lines in Saudi Arabia. This tells me that the Chinese suppliers (and to that extension, the Saudi Arabian government and the Chinese government) are legitimately serious about their engagement with manufacturing in Saudi Arabia. In turn, this gives me more confidence that the Saudi and Chinese manufacturing in the King Abdullah Economic City are in it for the long-haul, and that they are taking Lucid seriously when it comes to making sure Lucid gets what they need to ensure midsize's success.

As for my own personal speculation, I don't think China would be happy if so much of their investment and efforts into the KAEC would go up in smoke, so they would have an inherent interest in making sure manufacturing remains stable and on-track relative to everything else currently going on

I missed this... does Foxconn make the cars for them?

 

[gaskiller]

While this is going to be great for Lucid's European business due to competitive supplier pricing, it also means they'll likely have an expensive and complicated supply chain for the early production vehicles, which are slated for delivery in the US. They will no doubt have different supply chains for US vehicles vs global vehicles. In other words, their decision to start production in KSA will likely mean it'll take even longer to achieve profitability because Lucid's Cosmos destined for the US likely won't be profitable until they are produced in the US due to tariffs.

US is way behind Europe in EV adoption. Saudi exports to Europe. Regarding US, if supply chain is set up in Saudi, there won’t be any Chinese tariffs. I’m sure they figured all this out.

 

[The_Don]

US is way behind Europe in EV adoption. Saudi exports to Europe. Regarding US, if supply chain is set up in Saudi, there won’t be any Chinese tariffs. I’m sure they figured all this out.

That's not true. Even with supplier production in Saudi Arabia, if those suppliers are Chinese entities they are still subject to a number of US regulations. A couple examples:

1) Cars imported to the US are not allowed to have connected electronics (bluetooth, wifi, ADAS hardware, etc.) sourced from Chinese entities. European countries have no such ban.

2) Unless KSA develops an non-Chinese or in-country chemical supply chain for battery packs manufactured in Saudi Arabia, they will still be subject to 25% tariffs, while missing out on manufacturing tax credits for battery production in the US. European countries have no such tariff.

In other words, assuming some of KSA production will be coming to the US before AMP 1 starts midsize production, then they will likely start of with a more complicated (i.e. expensive) supply chain until they're able to shift AMP 2 production to be entirely non-US.

 

[The_Don]

Upon further reflection, the real economic issues for production in KSA aren't really (1) above, they're (2) plus the ~25% vehicle import tariffs. I'm highly sceptical that cost savings from production in KSA will negate these additional costs for US-bound vehicles. Not great for Lucid's bottom line in the short term....

 

[gaskiller]

That's not true. Even with supplier production in Saudi Arabia, if those suppliers are Chinese entities they are still subject to a number of US regulations. A couple examples:

1) Cars imported to the US are not allowed to have connected electronics (bluetooth, wifi, ADAS hardware, etc.) sourced from Chinese entities. European countries have no such ban.

2) Unless KSA develops an non-Chinese or in-country chemical supply chain for battery packs manufactured in Saudi Arabia, they will still be subject to 25% tariffs, while missing out on manufacturing tax credits for battery production in the US. European countries have no such tariff.

In other words, assuming some of KSA production will be coming to the US before AMP 1 starts midsize production, then they will likely start of with a more complicated (i.e. expensive) supply chain until they're able to shift AMP 2 production to be entirely non-US.

Lucid batteries made in Japan and South Korea….not sure where electronics come from. Either way, Saudi committed to buying 100k vehicles produced in Amp 2. That should help alleviate tariffs.