I leased because of the crazy End of the Model year incentive. I got 31.25K off my 25 Air GT. Made me get out of our Touring 6 months early. I did the math and leasing then buyout at the end is better than straight financing in my case. Get the incentives if its available for lease. Unfortunately they didnt put incentives for financing.
LUCID Gravity Lease vs Finance
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100%. Leasing can make sense with crazy incentives like they had in the Air.
Need help validating these numbers and understanding the buy vs lease then buy-out differences. Based on prior reading it seems the consensus is that lease then buy-out would be hugely more expensive than cash purchase up front. However, when i intput this into Chat GPT the difference is <$10,000.... That doesn't seem like a high price to pay to hedge against new tech, problems with the Gravity software, or Lucid's probability of surviving (which I'm not particularly concerned about...). Is chat GPT incorrectly assuming a lower residual value? Can't the residual value be explicitly calculated?
Adjusted Cap Cost = Vehicle Price + Fees – Rebates – Deposit
= $125,400 + $2,286 – $7,500 – $1,000
≈ $119,186
This is roughly the “amount financed” by the lease before residual.
The lease payment is basically:
Payment=Depreciation charge+Finance charge\text{Payment} = \text{Depreciation charge} + \text{Finance charge}Payment=Depreciation charge+Finance charge
Where:
If we assume 50% residual, residual = $125,400 × 0.50 ≈ $62,700.
Plugging this in:
Depreciation charge ≈ (119,186 – 62,700)/36 ≈ $1,566/month
That leaves $1,989 – $1,566 = $423/month as the finance charge.
Finance charge = (Cap + Residual) × MF
(119,186 + 62,700) × MF ≈ $181,886 × MF
So MF ≈ $423 / 181,886 ≈ 0.00233
Money Factor × 2400 ≈ APR
0.00233 × 2400 ≈ 5.6% APR
This is the “interest rate” you’re effectively paying on the lease portion.
Due at delivery (likely first payment + fees): $2,983.40
Total cash outlay for lease period ≈ $71,614 + $2,983 = $74,597
At lease end, if you want to buy the car, you’ll pay the residual value (likely around $62,700 + taxes/fees).
Total if you lease then buy:
Implicit APR on lease: ~5.5–6%
Residual (estimated): ~$62,700 (≈50%)
Here is another set run with assumption of 55% residual value I saw assumed in another thread. Still only $16k cost for the hedge. Higher but not absurd.
1. Breaking down the lease math
Your inputs:- Cap cost (vehicle price): $125,400
- Order deposit: $1,000
- Fees: $1,291 + $995 = $2,286
- Rebate: $7,500
- Down payment: $0
- Lease term: 36 months
- Monthly payment: $1,989.27
- Due at delivery: $2,983.40
Adjusted Cap Cost = Vehicle Price + Fees – Rebates – Deposit
= $125,400 + $2,286 – $7,500 – $1,000
≈ $119,186
This is roughly the “amount financed” by the lease before residual.
2. Residual value estimate
You weren’t given the residual directly, but we can back-calculate it:The lease payment is basically:
Payment=Depreciation charge+Finance charge\text{Payment} = \text{Depreciation charge} + \text{Finance charge}Payment=Depreciation charge+Finance charge
Where:
- Depreciation charge = (Cap cost – Residual) ÷ Term
- Finance charge = (Cap cost + Residual) × Money Factor
- Payment = $1,989.27
- Term = 36 months
- Cap = ~$119,186
If we assume 50% residual, residual = $125,400 × 0.50 ≈ $62,700.
Plugging this in:
Depreciation charge ≈ (119,186 – 62,700)/36 ≈ $1,566/month
That leaves $1,989 – $1,566 = $423/month as the finance charge.
Finance charge = (Cap + Residual) × MF
(119,186 + 62,700) × MF ≈ $181,886 × MF
So MF ≈ $423 / 181,886 ≈ 0.00233
Money Factor × 2400 ≈ APR
0.00233 × 2400 ≈ 5.6% APR
This is the “interest rate” you’re effectively paying on the lease portion.
3. Total cost of lease over 36 months
Monthly: $1,989.27 × 36 = $71,613.72Due at delivery (likely first payment + fees): $2,983.40
Total cash outlay for lease period ≈ $71,614 + $2,983 = $74,597
At lease end, if you want to buy the car, you’ll pay the residual value (likely around $62,700 + taxes/fees).
Total if you lease then buy:
- Lease outlay ≈ $74,600
- Residual buyout ≈ $62,700
- Total ≈ $137,300 + taxes on the buyout
4. Compare to buying outright
If you just pay cash:- $125,400 + $2,286 fees ≈ $127,686 upfront
(less any financing costs because you’re paying cash)
5. Summary Table
| Scenario | Upfront | Monthly | Term Cost | Residual/Balloon | Total Paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lease only (36 mo) | $2,983 | $1,989 | $74,600 | Return car | $74,600 |
| Lease + buyout | $2,983 | $1,989 | $74,600 | $62,700 | $137,300 |
| Cash purchase | ~$127,700 upfront | $0 | $0 | You own car | $127,700 |
Residual (estimated): ~$62,700 (≈50%)
Here is another set run with assumption of 55% residual value I saw assumed in another thread. Still only $16k cost for the hedge. Higher but not absurd.
Key Numbers
- MSRP: $125,400
- Fees: $2,286
- Adjusted Cap Cost: ~$119,186
- Residual Value (55%): $68,970
- Monthly Lease Payment: $1,989.27
- Upfront at Delivery: $2,983
Total Costs
| Scenario | Upfront | Monthly | Term Cost | Residual/Balloon | Total Paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lease only (36 mo, return car) | $2,983 | $1,989 | $71,613 | Return car | $74,597 |
| Lease + buyout | $2,983 | $1,989 | $71,613 | $68,970 buyout | $143,567 |
| Cash purchase | $127,686 upfront | $0 | $0 | You own car | $127,686 |
Interpretation
- Residual value: $68,970 (55% of MSRP).
- Total lease outlay (return car): $74.6k over 3 years.
- Lease + buyout: $143.6k total (≈$15.9k more than paying cash up front).
- Cash purchase: $127.7k up front; you own it from day one.
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I didn’t go line by line, but I’ve not seen any analysis here that shows leasing is “hugely more expensive” than buying. It’s all fairly close.
Where folks get wound up is if you have $127,000 today in cash, and you’re disciplined and invest it today and then “draw down” on it for lease costs, will the interest and appreciation of that core principal grow to exceed the difference between lease and buy. It’s all TVM. Conversely, what’s the opportunity cost of the $127k if you throw it all into a depreciating asset today? That’s where assumptions get personal and folks kind of justify whatever they want the outcome to be.
I've seen numerous people here and elsewhere say in fairly strong language that essentially Leasing under the current terms is for suckers and from there I drew the conclusion that it must be due the final result being significantly more expensive.
Even when I input various drawn down strategies for investing $125k up front and paying for financing/lease etc it ends up being a difference of a few or several thousand dollars one way or the other, not really numbers that break the bank.
Sounds like I'm over thinking it. Lease seems completely financially reasonable if somebody values the hedge against new tech, bad car, or bad company.
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The implied interest rate is not “highway robbery” but it’s also nothing like what they provide for the Air.
The question (in my mind) is residual. The sole reasons I leased were 1) to hedge against insanely fast depreciation (eg our 2022 X is now worth 46% of what we bought it for in 2022 - not ideal) and 2) in case Lucid had financial issues. I am no longer worried about #2 after driving my Gravity as I believe someone big would buy Lucid for all its proprietary tech. It’s not disappearing like Fisket.
You've received your Gravity? Were you able to pin them down explicitly on Cap cost, residual value, and money factor?
My process has been escalated and I'm allegedly getting my fully spec GGT in 1-2 weeks. It's left the factory a few days ago.
FWIW - I believe strongly that Lucid's product is superior, will be refined with time, and the company is viable long term. I have *just* enough concern about the stability of the software and lack of adequate refinement that I'm choosing to lease instead of Buy/Finance. If I can't reliably unlock the car and put it in drive I'm going to lose my mind.
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Residual, yes. It was something like $67,000 on a $123,000 all in coat (excludes taxes). It’s high (to me) That’s clear in the docs. I listed the info somewhere in this thread. I have to go back and try to back into the other numbers again. Your ChatGPT was pretty close, if I remember correctly.
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In certain state such as mine (Texas), if you plan on buying out the lease, you get double taxed. You pay 6.25% tax on the full car price at start of lease and then if you buy out, you pay an additional 6.25% tax on the residual amount when you buy it out, which wipes out most of the $7500 lease bonus.
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1) If you’re going to buy it out I think it makes more sense to do it in the 19 month, that way you get the benefit of the $7,500 EV credit, but also reduce total amount you finance by eliminating the last 18 months of interest. 2) Something between your two “Lease+Buyout” scenarios doesn’t intuitively make sense. Why would the higher 55% residual value scenario have higher Total Paid? You’re financing less depreciation in the second scenario.
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In the se
In the send scenario with a higher residual value you would have a lower payment, since you’re depreciating the car less. You’re showing the same payment and finance charges for both scenarios.
Was just told by SA:
MSRP $125,400
Adjust Cap cost $118895
Residual value: $71,440
Money Factor - 0.00263
Thus:
*MSRP + fees.
MSRP $125,400
Adjust Cap cost $118895
Residual value: $71,440
Money Factor - 0.00263
Thus:
5. Compare Scenarios
| Scenario | Upfront | Monthly | Term Cost | Residual/Balloon | Total Paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lease only (return car) | $2,983 | $1,989 | $71,604 | Return car | $74,587 |
| Lease + buyout | $2,983 | $1,989 | $71,604 | $71,440 buyout | $146,027 |
| Cash purchase | $127,686 upfront* | $0 | $0 | You own car | $127,686 |
6. Interpretation
- Your lease’s interest component is ~6.3% APR.
- The residual value is $71,440 (~57% of MSRP).
- If you return the car, you’ve paid about $74.6k over 3 years.
- If you buy it after leasing, total cash outlay ≈ $146k vs. $127.7k to just buy outright — about $18k more over three years.
- Now if you have the cash up front and instead assume investing the $125k, 8% returns, periodic withdraw from this fund for the cost of lease payment and then buy out at the end:
Results at the End of 3 Years
Cost Difference in Plain TermsScenario Starting Investment Cash Paid for Car Investment Balance After 3 Yrs Car Ownership Net Position (Car + Cash) Buy Outright $0 (you spend it all upfront) $127,686 at t=0 $0 Own car Car only (no cash) Lease + Buyout $125,000 invested Paid from investment: 36×$1,989 + $71,440 at end ≈$6,700 left Own car Car + $6,700 cash
- Upfront cash purchase: you give up ~$127.7k immediately and you own the car. No investment growth.
- Lease + buyout using investment: you let $125k compound at 8 % while drawing out for lease + buyout. After 3 years you still own the car and you still have about $6.7k cash left (plus you’ve earned returns along the way).
- That $6.7k is your “advantage” relative to simply writing a check on day one — but only if you actually earn the 8 % return and don’t pay taxes/fees on the investment.
So bottom line - If you have the money to pay cash but choose leasing and stay invested reasonably, leasing will actually be the better financial choice. I'm sure you can get a slightly lower APR with financing vs leasing but then you don't have the advantage of the hedge against new tech, bad car, or LUCID going under and the financial upside is small.
I'm done here. Going to sign the lease and move on. The difference is not meaningful in either direction in any of these scenarios. Lease, finance, buy. Do whatever feels right to you.
A few days ago I got those numbers from my SA.
Vehicle price: $115,200
Lucid Advantage Credit (EV credit): -$7,500
Net Capital Cost (with fees and credits): $110,345
Down payment: $0
Term: 36
Money Factor: 0.00265 (6.36%)
Annual Mileage: 10,000
Residual Value: $66,569.45
Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,863.40 (includes tax)
Annual Mileage: 7,500
Residual Value: $67,924.91
Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,825.74 (includes tax)
In my specific circumstances (I invest) the loan doesn't even come close to what I can get with lease. Based on my calculations even 0% (yes, 0%) 36 month loan is worse than this 10k, 36 month lease. To beat this I would need to find a 72 month loan with 3.96% or less APR. It's hard to beat $7,500 EV credit. Considering the fact that lease comes with a few extra perks I think I'll be happy with it (I can leave the car after 36 months if there are issues, I don't like the car, Lucid goes down, new generation is much better, it's my first EV and I don't know what to expect).
Vehicle price: $115,200
Lucid Advantage Credit (EV credit): -$7,500
Net Capital Cost (with fees and credits): $110,345
Down payment: $0
Term: 36
Money Factor: 0.00265 (6.36%)
Annual Mileage: 10,000
Residual Value: $66,569.45
Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,863.40 (includes tax)
Annual Mileage: 7,500
Residual Value: $67,924.91
Estimated Monthly Payment: $1,825.74 (includes tax)
In my specific circumstances (I invest) the loan doesn't even come close to what I can get with lease. Based on my calculations even 0% (yes, 0%) 36 month loan is worse than this 10k, 36 month lease. To beat this I would need to find a 72 month loan with 3.96% or less APR. It's hard to beat $7,500 EV credit. Considering the fact that lease comes with a few extra perks I think I'll be happy with it (I can leave the car after 36 months if there are issues, I don't like the car, Lucid goes down, new generation is much better, it's my first EV and I don't know what to expect).
I've looked at this as well. Leasing would result in a higher monthly payment versus purchase (assumed a 72 month loan). Loan takes on risk of higher depreciation and risk of Lucid failing. Able to sell if not happy with the vehicle with a loan, but might take a big hit.
Lease - only a 36 month commitment, but expensive. Still have to pay full taxes (TX). Only benefit is if something happens to lucid, then not stuck owning an unsupported vehicle whose value would drop (aka Fisker).
Price wise - would be happier if a lower end trim comes to market later (aka Touring level trim).
Not sure the 7500 savings really makes a huge impact in the grand scheme.
Side note - does one have to take delivery of the vehicle to get the 7500 rebate by 9/30 or just ordered? (air or gravity) -- I live ~4 hours from a delivery center, so would need delivery to be setup.
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Lucid has made clear if you’ve ordered a gravity by 9/30 you will get the $7500 capital reduction on a lease assuming delivery by year end.
Lease an eligible Lucid Gravity and receive the $7,500 Credit even if you take delivery after September 30th. Must order by September 30, 2025 to receive offer.
Design Yours
$7,500 Lucid Advantage Credit
Lease an eligible Lucid Gravity and receive the $7,500 Credit even if you take delivery after September 30th. Must order by September 30, 2025 to receive offer.
Design Yours
It makes huge impact for me. In WA state I need to pay taxes on a car whether I lease or take a loan.
36 month, 0.00265 MF (6.36%), 10k miles lease cost me with taxes around $1,863.40 monthly. In total if I keep the lease for the whole term I'll pay around $16,877.64 in financing only.
If I get 72 month, 5%, $100k loan I'll have $1,610.49 monthly payment and $15,955.52 in interest over the term. Sounds lovely, but the problem is I got pre-approved for $100k only so I need to cover anything above that. Car costs $115,200. If we add taxes and fees I get $31,126.00 that I need to pay from my pocket at delivery compared to around $3,5k I paid for lease (which includes 1 month of lease). I have $31,126.00 - $3.5k = $27,626 and add $7.5k EV credit = $35,126 less money invested from the get go when picking the loan. There is possibility I could get loan for bigger amount, but I already spent enormous amount of time shopping for other stuff.
In the end. If I take everything into account and assume 10% average investment gains (very conservative considering that over last 3 years annualized S&P500 growth is 23.87%) I end up with $28,5k extra cash after 72 months of lease (36 months of lease + car buyout with tax at the end) while with the above loan I'll have $23.8k. In my particular case lease wins. And the bigger investment gains the better lease gets.
But even if you just look at the interest. The difference it very small $16,877.64 vs $15,955.52 while I also get $7.5k cheaper car with lease. Based only on this the whole cost of leasing is $6,577.88 cheaper than this particular example on the loan.
PS. It only gets worse for loans the shorter term. I save more on interest payments, but I lose a lot in opportunity cost. But like I said before. Investments can go anywhere in short term so I could still lose money.
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There are covered call ETFs that pay 10% yield, you could darn near cover a monthly lease cost with the income from that on a $127K position....
I just cancelled my order since the price they were asking was not what was talked about when I ordered. Guess I'll wait to see if some good deals come down the pike like it did for the Air when it was released. I'll let you guys work out the kinks this time while I potentially wait 