Lucid Earth (midsize crossover): ready by summer 2027?

[joec]

2027?

And do you mean first customers globally or in the U.S., since production is going to start in Saudi Arabia?

Globally. But I don’t think US will be far behind SA and Europe.

Given the rest of the world doesn’t have its head up its collective butt when it comes to EVs, I think delivering elsewhere first makes sense.

 

[Need4Sleep]

Globally. But I don’t think US will be far behind SA and Europe.

Given the rest of the world doesn’t have its head up its collective butt when it comes to EVs, I think delivering elsewhere first makes sense.

I wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia gets midsize priority, given their deal to buy 50,000 vehicles from Lucid with an option to make it to 100,000 vehicles, and the deal includes other future models. So I'm assuming midsize will be a sizeable chunk of that deal

 

[joec]

I wouldn't be surprised if Saudi Arabia gets midsize priority, given their deal to buy 50,000 vehicles from Lucid with an option to make it to 100,000 vehicles, and the deal includes other future models. So I'm assuming midsize will be a sizeable chunk of that deal

I do think many of the 50k will be Midsize, too. Another good reason to start over there.

Though how many of those 50k get delivered in 2027 is anyone’s guess. My guess is those 50k will be spread over at least three or four years.

They may want to slow roll a bit in the States if for no other reason than to not overwhelm service. Though I have no idea what the service infrastructure looks like overseas. Is it easier or harder to ramp up service centers in other countries? I wonder?

But they’ll want to get it out in the States pretty soon after. That giant factory wasn’t built to deliver 15k Gravity and 5k Air per year.

 

[hmp10]

Given the rest of the world doesn’t have its head up its collective butt when it comes to EVs, I think delivering elsewhere first makes sense.

I do, too. In fact, as a stockholder, I'm really hoping Lucid puts a European / MidEast strategy on the front burner. We in the U.S. have got to start getting used to sucking hind tit on a lot of technology fronts since that's we're apparently so hellbent on doing.

 

[Leftlane]

They better hope that the Rivian R2 is either delayed or has a bunch of problems then - I think that could be a real winner for them as the reasonably priced alternative to the Model Y.

 

[Need4Sleep]

I do think many of the 50k will be Midsize, too. Another good reason to start over there.

Though how many of those 50k get delivered in 2027 is anyone’s guess. My guess is those 50k will be spread over at least three or four years.

They may want to slow roll a bit in the States if for no other reason than to not overwhelm service. Though I have no idea what the service infrastructure looks like overseas. Is it easier or harder to ramp up service centers in other countries? I wonder?

But they’ll want to get it out in the States pretty soon after. That giant factory wasn’t built to deliver 15k Gravity and 5k Air per year.

Yeah, given that the agreement is to purchase the vehicles over a 10-year period, it'll definitely be spread out over a long term

 

[Need4Sleep]

They better hope that the Rivian R2 is either delayed or has a bunch of problems then - I think that could be a real winner for them as the reasonably priced alternative to the Model Y.

Personally I believe that even with R2 beginning production ahead of midsize, there will still be a sizeable market big enough that both R2 and midsize can co-exist healthily

 

[TahoeMichael]

They took a 13% hit due to tariffs , mentioned in last earnings call.

I have no idea how I'd plan for tariffs I was running Lucid. Given the apparently deliberate strategy of chaos in the current administration's tariff policies, the tariffs of today might look nothing like the tariffs of 2027. Add in the uncertainty of the Supreme Court case, and it's a gambler's game, not an MBA's.

 

[Leftlane]

Personally I believe that even with R2 beginning production ahead of midsize, there will still be a sizeable market big enough that both R2 and midsize can co-exist healthily

Yeah, but they are going to be competing in the same space as the Model Y, which has been the best selling vehicle in the world, along with plenty of others. Being
late to the game means they need to have a better solution all around.

 

[Need4Sleep]

Yeah, but they are going to be competing in the same space as the Model Y, which has been the best selling vehicle in the world, along with plenty of others. Being
late to the game means they need to have a better solution all around.

We can look at the Hyundai/Kia group as an example. Even though they were how many years late to the EV game, their offerings sold out like crazy. There were absurdly long waitlists for the Ioniq 5 / EV 6. And with the level of design with the Air and Gravity that they've demonstrated (okay, probably software aside), I think Lucid has what it takes to make themselves stand out in the midsize price range.

I think we can also be in for a surprise with what kind of buyers would cross-shop to the midsize. I recall a sizeable Kia EV9 / Hyundai Ioniq 7 buyers were cross-shoppers from Range Rover because JLR was taking too long for an EV SUV.

 

[tmichael]

They are building B&W for midsize at AMP-1 right now. Also acquired Nikola Coolidge facility will be a pilot line for the first midsize vehicles per Mark Winterhoff.

by "B&W" are you referring to "Body in white"?

 

[The_Don]

by "B&W" are you referring to "Body in white"?

Yes

 

[tmichael]

In a decade, the big 3 in Detroit will be in a lot of trouble. Solid state batteries will be here and they will be struggling to make good EVs. Short term profits but no long term vision.Detroit will be confined to selling gas guzzlers in North America while China takes over the rest of the world. I will never forgive Detroit for making Americans buy huge polluting monstrous vehicles that most never need just for their profits. You need to buy an SUV so you can feel safe around other huge trucks and SUVs. It’s a vicious cycle. Shame on them!

I wouldn't count Detroit out just yet...

Dodge Charger - you want it with ICE, we've got it. BEV? We've got it.

Detroit had to put lots of development dollars toward EVs in order to capitulate to regulations requiring timelines for shifting to EVs. I'm pretty confident the vehicles are still continuing in the development phase - they just don't have to re-tool plants to handle the switch as fast as they thought.

I believe as well that solid state batteries will be the death knell of new ICE powertrains, but to not continue to make a better ICE for those next 10 years would be detrimental to the customer. And, for an Escalade IQ example, solid state batteries would be plug and play replacements, offering lighter weight and better packaging options. The powertrain/suspension portion of the platform will benefit from smaller and lighter suspension components, etc, but those can be handled as iterative changes without redesigning the entire platform until a scheduled model makeover.

Living in Detroit with many auto industry clients, I hear it all the time - the time frame for the shift to EVs has changed, but not the eventuality of the result.

 

[hmp10]

Living in Detroit with many auto industry clients, I hear it all the time - the time frame for the shift to EVs has changed, but not the eventuality of the result.

That's good to hear.

It's a shame in a way that the advent of EVs got so tied up with the issue of climate change. Even if you believe the arguments that fossil fuels have nothing to do with climate change (which I don't, fwiw), so many scientific fields would be advanced by research into finding alternative ways to produce, capture, and store energy: safer nuclear production, capturing the solar energy that floods our planet daily through wind energy, capturing wave energy from gravitational pull, geothermal capture, less toxic battery chemistries that require less exotic elements, etc.

The move from depleting fossil resources that are increasingly difficult and expensive to access, that have spawned so much economic and military strife, and that will inevitably get increasingly expensive would produce and mature technologies that could apply to so much beyond vehicle propulsion . . . and all of this without any climate change calculations and accompanying political debates entering the equation at all.

 

[victoryroad]

That's good to hear.

It's a shame in a way that the advent of EVs got so tied up with the issue of climate change. Even if you believe the arguments that fossil fuels have nothing to do with climate change (which I don't, fwiw), so many scientific fields would be advanced by research into finding alternative ways to produce, capture, and store energy: safer nuclear production, capturing the solar energy that floods our planet daily through wind energy, capturing wave energy from gravitational pull, geothermal capture, less toxic battery chemistries that require less exotic elements, etc.

The move from depleting fossil resources that are increasingly difficult and expensive to access, that have spawned so much economic and military strife, and that will inevitably get increasingly expensive would produce and mature technologies that could apply to so much beyond vehicle propulsion . . . and all of this without any climate change calculations and accompanying political debates entering the equation at all.

Well said. Unfortunately, the political aspect of electric generation and EV adoption is extreme now. This will prolong adoption and development of EVs and supporting infrastructure but this is not news and progress is inevitable IMO. We are fortunate to have been on the Lucid journey with relatively highly evolved vehicles that have informed our perspective. The fact is that a few years of ownership and driving experience from local to cross country of the Lucid Air and recently Gravity are in another dimension from modern ICE alternatives.

 

[The_Don]

Range feels like the only remaining barrier to EV adoption. Objectively speaking, EVs are better than ICE vehicles in every other facet of daily driving. Unfortunately, there are still very few affordable EVs that can offer 350+ miles of range. I think once that becomes more commonplace, EV adoption will surge, regardless of what policies are in place in the US.

 

[thyname]

Range feels like the only remaining barrier to EV adoption.

Range is absolutely important. The next important part is the charging infrastructure (availability + charging speed). Especially during road trips. Many people make their car purchasing decisions based on extreme case scenarios (i.e. a road trip or two they take each year). The latter (charging infrastructure) becomes also very important for people who cannot charge at home (i.e. apartment buildings, condos, in cities, etc. etc.)