Earnings call August 3rd

[joec]

Lucid officially announced their earnings call info.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1549741379202547717

 

[rbbarry]

Please your bets...

 

[MPawelek]

No corporation is going to come out and take any responsibility for their mistakes. We will hear more Covid, parts shortage, downturn in the economy, transportation, inflation, war in Ukraine etc. It will be all smoke and mirrors for the stock holders. Also a great time to give upper management a bonus for their hard work.

 

[joec]

I'm more interested in the guidance for Q3 and Q4 than what has to be a fairly dismal Q2. I want to hear that supply constraints are easing, that production is (finally) ramping up, and most importantly and selfishly for me, that Touring is still on track to be shipping by the end of the year.

Estimates for total cars produced this year will likely finally be reduced. I'm hoping only down to about 8k or so, rather than 4 or 5k. 5k would basically mean they expect to not ramp up at all, which would be terrible. They produced around 2.5k so far this year, with a six-week shut down. They have to be able to do at least a little better in the second half of the year, I'm thinking.

I expect the stock to take a hit, of course, but it's been up the past few days on all the good reviews, so hopefully, it'll only be bumped back down to about $13 or $15? At that point, I may pick up a few extra shares.

I still believe Lucid has a big mountain to climb, but it has all the chance in the world of making it work, ultimately. They are shipping cars to actual customers. That already puts them ahead of most others who try to start a new car company. They've proven they can adjust their processes when things aren't working. They just need to get through the next few years.

 

[HC_79]

I agree, Q2 numbers are going to dismal but Lucid has always said that from a supply chain standpoint that things would pick up from June and looking at what's sitting on the lot in the last few weeks it does seem that things are on the up. In the recent media reviews some articles still had Lucid saying Pure's and Touring's to be delivered in Q4. Numbers will no doubt be revised or somehow they're going to need to start pumping out 500+ cars a week to meet guidance.

Reservation numbers will be interesting to see. With inflation and interest rate hikes the luxury car market is never a good business to be in when heading into a recession. I think the call will be a typical call though, Peter will bang on about how great and efficient the car is and its world class, he'll drop all the recent success stories from the recent round of media reviews and skip everything about why deliveries got stalled etc.

 

[joec]

I agree, Q2 numbers are going to dismal but Lucid has always said that from a supply chain standpoint that things would pick up from June and looking at what's sitting on the lot in the last few weeks it does seem that things are on the up. In the recent media reviews some articles still had Lucid saying Pure's and Touring's to be delivered in Q4. Numbers will no doubt be revised or somehow they're going to need to start pumping out 500+ cars a week to meet guidance.

Reservation numbers will be interesting to see. With inflation and interest rate hikes the luxury car market is never a good business to be in when heading into a recession. I think the call will be a typical call though, Peter will bang on about how great and efficient the car is and its world class, he'll drop all the recent success stories from the recent round of media reviews and skip everything about why deliveries got stalled etc.

I agree, he will try to gloss over the bad news. I wonder if any good reporters will force some answers on that front, though. Like I said, I'm much more interested in the future than the past, but it would be interesting to hear the company's take on what the heck happened in May / June.

 

[daydreamer223]

I agree, Q2 numbers are going to dismal but Lucid has always said that from a supply chain standpoint that things would pick up from June and looking at what's sitting on the lot in the last few weeks it does seem that things are on the up. In the recent media reviews some articles still had Lucid saying Pure's and Touring's to be delivered in Q4. Numbers will no doubt be revised or somehow they're going to need to start pumping out 500+ cars a week to meet guidance.

Reservation numbers will be interesting to see. With inflation and interest rate hikes the luxury car market is never a good business to be in when heading into a recession. I think the call will be a typical call though, Peter will bang on about how great and efficient the car is and its world class, he'll drop all the recent success stories from the recent round of media reviews and skip everything about why deliveries got stalled etc.

My bet is still that they’ll technically sell maybe one or two tourings/pures before end of year just to say that they did, but still continue to actually just be delivering GTs at any real volume ... or at least that’s what I would do. They haven’t even committed to a final spec sheet, nor started any touring confirmations yet as far as we know, which makes real deliveries this year a fleeting idea.

 

[Sandvinsd]

I was expecting that they would confirm the first Tourings before the earnings call, just so that they could say they are starting production. But perhaps, that is too optimistic, but they still have two weeks!

 

[Tesla2.0]

Processes enhancement
Labor challenges
Software enhancements
Production ramp up
AMP-1 & AMP-2 progress report
Europe expansion
Gravity timeline

These will likely be focus of Earning Call is my guess.

 

[LCIDdreams]

Perhaps a positive sign they are not putting the call off as long as they possibly can?

 

[Sandvinsd]

Perhaps a positive sign they are not putting the call off as long as they possibly can?

Actually it is about as late as it can be. Required to be within 35 days after the quarter ended on June 30th (60 days after Q4)

 

[LCIDdreams]

Actually it is about as late as it can be. Required to be within 35 days after the quarter ended on June 30th (60 days after Q4)

I thought it was 60 days for some reason. Wasn’t the Q4 earnings report & call in late February?

Edit - just noticed Q4 note. That’s what confused me (Q4 call was late Feb)

 

[Sam6062]

I'm more interested in the guidance for Q3 and Q4 than what has to be a fairly dismal Q2. I want to hear that supply constraints are easing, that production is (finally) ramping up, and most importantly and selfishly for me, that Touring is still on track to be shipping by the end of the year.

Estimates for total cars produced this year will likely finally be reduced. I'm hoping only down to about 8k or so, rather than 4 or 5k. 5k would basically mean they expect to not ramp up at all, which would be terrible. They produced around 2.5k so far this year, with a six-week shut down. They have to be able to do at least a little better in the second half of the year, I'm thinking.

I expect the stock to take a hit, of course, but it's been up the past few days on all the good reviews, so hopefully, it'll only be bumped back down to about $13 or $15? At that point, I may pick up a few extra shares.

I still believe Lucid has a big mountain to climb, but it has all the chance in the world of making it work, ultimately. They are shipping cars to actual customers. That already puts them ahead of most others who try to start a new car company. They've proven they can adjust their processes when things aren't working. They just need to get through the next few years.

Some chartist predicting anywhere from 17.25 to 13.25 or even lower. I have sold half my position in anticipation of the announcement regarding reduced deliveries from 14K to perhaps 7-8k and they wont even make it OR the quality will be even worse. Will look to enter back in at 13.25 or otherwise I am OK with the reduction. Bought some RIVN, for some diversification. Amazon says they are actually using some of their Vans for deliveries now. Saw a whole Car carrier full of R1T‘s coming to town. They look really nice.

 

[Sam6062]

Perhaps a positive sign they are not putting the call off as long as they possibly can?

Ha Ha NO, THIS has been their modus-operandi so they can embellish with the first months Deliveries from the next quarter. They made a big deal about the April deliveries the last time until they had the stoppage SOOOO without talking about JULY the report about deliveries will look awful. SAD… I was so convinced they had what it takes. I know its one car amongst 2500 but I keep finding stuff that other call minor but not m. Shows poor quality control process despite multiple pre delivery checks. If this forum is any indication most people only care about the driving experience and THAT is a HUGE PLUS for them IF they can ramp up Production.