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Big three or the new three?

thyname

thyname

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I am posting this under Gravity for obvious reasons 😉.

Say in 2050…. Which one is left standing? 1) The big three (GM, Ford, Stellantis) or the New three (Tesla , Rivian, Lucid)?

FYI, Trump is gone by then (not a political statement, just biology). I have a strong feeling solar, wind, EVs will survive.

I am 100% sure it’s the latter. The big three are gone. Chinese are replacing them easy peasy .

Thoughts?

pS: very US centric so please ignore if not in US
 
I don't think the US will allow any Chinese-made vehicles in the near future. Some Chinese-parent ones though, if made in the USA or EU (Geely group).
 
Of the two groups? Old three for sure. GM is deep in government and military and lobbying. Ford is the most popular truck by several magnitudes of anyone else.

Of the new three? Tesla (see above), Rivian and Lucid are inconsequential to the American economy.
 
thyname said:
Too big to fail? I am assuming since \you mentioned “trucks” stellantis will be OK with their RAM?
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Too economically necessary to fail. IDK about Stellantis they can make crappy products for decades and not go out of business.

Tesla's saving grace is that its a meme stock and if it ever went to its true value, half off wall street would collapse overnight. For better or worse.
 
thyname said:
that’s literally what I said: too big to fail. Please explain the difference
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Too big to fail (imo) is more of the "it looks bad if it fails" than it is "its to necessary to fail", with the difference being more of it's value is ingrained into the engine of the US economy on multiple levels, than just the bad PR of them actually failing. Not only physically but also back door shady business-ly, GM and Ford are old and entrenched.
 
DeaneG said:
I don't think the US will allow any Chinese-made vehicles in the near future. Some Chinese-parent ones though, if made in the USA or EU (Geely group).
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I recently had a ride in a BYD.
Have to say it blew Tesla 3 out of the water in terms of comfort, handling, and luxury.
Don't know anything about their software, range, or reliability, though.
BTW, the AC was much stronger than the Air.
1758937484580.webp
 
Companies that are supported by the US government will survive.

After Lehman Brothers failed, the US government intervened to make the next ones wouldn't: AIG, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs...

Same with the big three in the past and I think it'll be the same again in the future.

The US government loves the big three vehicles for military/police/Presidential/Secret Service purposes.
 
Tâm said:
After Lehman Brothers failed, the US government intervened to make the next ones wouldn't: AIG, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs...
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Hmmmmm….

1) Bear Stearns failed (just like Lehman )
2) Countrywide failed
3) Wachovia gone (swallowed by Wells Fargo for pennies on the dollar)
4) Merrill Lynch swallowed by Bank of America (for pennies on the dollar)
5) Washington Mutual failed and let go
6) Goldman Sachs saved by Warren Buffet
7) AIG saved by US government (counterparty risks)
8) Morgan Stanley saved by US government (too big to fail)
9) IndyMac failed (let go, not too big to fail)
 
thyname said:
Hmmmmm….

1) Bear Stearns failed (just like Lehman )
2) Countrywide failed
3) Wachovia gone (swallowed by Wells Fargo for pennies on the dollar)
4) Merrill Lynch swallowed by Bank of America (for pennies on the dollar)
5) Washington Mutual failed and let go
6) Goldman Sachs saved by Warren Buffet
7) AIG saved by US government (counterparty risks)
8) Morgan Stanley saved by US government (too big to fail)
9) IndyMac failed (let go, not too big to fail)
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The US intervened in order for others to swallow, buy up Bear Stearns, Countrywide...

Without the intervention, it's doubtful anyone would dare to buy them out.

After the buyouts, some would retain their old names while others would take on the buyers' names.

The idea is the same: the US government is important for a company survivability (with old names or new when being bought out. The US partially bought bought out Intel.)
 
EVCar said:
I recently had a ride in a BYD.
Have to say it blew Tesla 3 out of the water in terms of comfort, handling, and luxury.
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I saw a ton of them in Norway recently. They look great.
 
I see both threes surviving.
The Big Three will respond to Chinese offerings with EVs for the sake of global sales impact if they don't respond.
ICE vehicle offerings from the Big Three will be minimal, but still in demand.

The New Three will continue to grow to the extent their board of directors and shareholders communicate.

Additional ev companies backed/parented by Chinese companies will exist in the US.

The evolution of autonomous driving (AD) and the related regulatory policies will be a huge factor in determining success.
AD technology and the level of integration will greatly influence the prevelance of ICE vehicles on the road from the Big Three.
 
Love my Lucid. I love the look of the Rivians. I wouldn’t be surprised if both are purchased in the next 5 years or so. Both are great products that would benefit from a bigger company sourcing materials for them and co-developing software. I keep thinking about Facebook. They are on a HUGE spending spree and need places to put their AI products. If they spent 20billion rolling up car manufacturers to fully take on Tesla, would that shock anyone? Or MSFT? Or Amazon? I could really imagine a non-traditional buyer emerging to justify their AI spending. But maybe a Euro, Japanese, or Korean manufacturer wants a jump start in EVs.

I just don’t see either brand becoming dominant on their own. But maybe I’m a pessimist
 
I suspect one of the big companies will go under, or at least shrink to a pale shadow. The US government can't fully shield them from international competition.
 
TahoeMichael said:
I suspect one of the big companies will go under, or at least shrink to a pale shadow. The US government can't fully shield them from international competition.
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Yes, 2 of the big three went bankrupt during the downturn of 2009. The gas price was high, income was down, and the consumers switched their taste from a big US gas guzzler Hummer to a smaller Japanese car.

On the other hand, the US is quite good at keeping China away such as arresting the CFO of Huawei for almost 3 years and now Chinese consumers can access tri-fold phones first while the rest of the world is trying to play catch up.
 
nashvillelucid said:
Love my Lucid. I love the look of the Rivians. I wouldn’t be surprised if both are purchased in the next 5 years or so. Both are great products that would benefit from a bigger company sourcing materials for them and co-developing software. I keep thinking about Facebook. They are on a HUGE spending spree and need places to put their AI products. If they spent 20billion rolling up car manufacturers to fully take on Tesla, would that shock anyone? Or MSFT? Or Amazon? I could really imagine a non-traditional buyer emerging to justify their AI spending. But maybe a Euro, Japanese, or Korean manufacturer wants a jump start in EVs.

I just don’t see either brand becoming dominant on their own. But maybe I’m a pessimist
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It's always a fun game to play, to imagine what cash-rich tech companies can buy and integrate with. Google, Apple, Meta, Nvidia—hell, both Lucid and Tesla use Nvidia systems for their infotainment. It of course doesn't happen b/c tech companies generally don't want to deal w/ the logistics of car manufacturing, and even if they did, it's not clear that the customer brands + values we like would transfer. There was an outcry, for instance, when Meta forced Facebook logins for their Meta/Oculus systems and tried to push hard on social network use cases instead of what people wanted for VR (e.g., games). Imagine getting shopping ad interludes in your Lucid. 🫠

On a more optimistic note, I'm curious if something like Slate Auto can make it work. Every new EV player is executing the same playbook as Tesla: high-end first, then use the learnings + scale to move to mass market, but it means they have to get a lot right to make it in the luxury segment. If battery costs get low enough, starting from the bottom up would be more classically "disruptive" and would encourage more to try.
 
socktucker said:
Of the two groups? Old three for sure. GM is deep in government and military and lobbying. Ford is the most popular truck by several magnitudes of anyone else.

Of the new three? Tesla (see above), Rivian and Lucid are inconsequential to the American economy.
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The big three will survive or perhaps consolidate into two but will they be known as car companies? Just like Boeing is starting to fail as an aircraft builder, their government contracts and other non airliner products will keep them a float. An argument could be made that as a car builder Tesla is the most vulnerable as a car builder mainly because of their recent lack of innovation. However, they will survive because of all their non automotive revenue streams; space, AI, software, robotics, etc. That's where the other new two have to catch up is that their alternative streams of revenue are still in its infancy.
 
DeaneG said:
I saw a ton of them in Norway recently. They look great.
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Wondering what the Norwegians think about national security and related issues, or are they just overblown here in the States?
 
Allnatt said:
...space, AI, software, robotics, etc. That's where the other new two have to catch up is that their alternative streams of revenue are still in its infancy.
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Tesla only acquired SolarCity but not SpaceX.
 
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