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dbsb3233 said:
They were never gonna generate truly sizable demand for a $100k vehicle. That's what $50k Cosmos & Earth are for (if they make it that far and if they get the costs low enough to sell them for that and make a profit... all big IFs).
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That's always been the big disconnect with me. They invested billions in building 2 manufacturing plants that are capable of 200K+ cars annually when the guidance has been in the mid to high teens since they started production. The pros, its positions them well if the Cosmos, Earth, etc. take off but the cons are on the number of vehicles being sold really hasn't justified the continued expansion of those facilities.

In its current state AMP-1 could've easily handled Air, Gravity and Cosmos without the need of AMP-2 at the moment. This really is a "build it and they will come" moment but time tell if it was one of the smartest or stupidest decisions in the companies history. Hopefully it's the former, midsize takes off and the rest is history.......
 
Sue? Fake? Beyond confirmation Alex Partners is engaged, Afonso: "the report establishes no bankruptcy intent."

Putting facts together, which suggest possibilities, is modern media. Others equated the firm with forthcoming bankruptcy, days after the article was written. Probably can't sue them, either.

So much for efficient markets. Congrats to those who saw through it.
 
HC_79 said:
That's always been the big disconnect with me. They invested billions in building 2 manufacturing plants that are capable of 200K+ cars annually when the guidance has been in the mid to high teens since they started production. The pros, its positions them well if the Cosmos, Earth, etc. take off but the cons are on the number of vehicles being sold really hasn't justified the continued expansion of those facilities.

In its current state AMP-1 could've easily handled Air, Gravity and Cosmos without the need of AMP-2 at the moment. This really is a "build it and they will come" moment but time tell if it was one of the smartest or stupidest decisions in the companies history. Hopefully it's the former, midsize takes off and the rest is history.......
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I'd chalk it up to the best laid plans of mice and men.

When this strategy was made, the EV environment was totally different (incentives, excitement, all boats rising). Things totally flipped (at least in the U.S.). Policy went from supportive to outright adversarial (tariffs).

Also I don't doubt there's the political football of bring jobs to SA as cover for why invest.

Having 2 factories without demand is no doubt painful. I wonder if there could have been a possible pivot when things changed. Recall Rivian paused development of their Greenfield factory in GA for a bit.

The silver lining is the tariff circumvention strategy for building in SA. (Remains to be seen if that will pay off)
 
gamix said:
Sue? Fake? Beyond confirmation Alex Partners is engaged, Afonso: "the report establishes no bankruptcy intent."

Putting facts together, which suggest possibilities, is modern media. Others equated the firm with forthcoming bankruptcy, days after the article was written. Probably can't sue them, either.

So much for efficient markets. Congrats to those who saw through it.
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Well I didn't see through it but I missed it all together.

Same result!
 
HC_79 said:
That's always been the big disconnect with me. They invested billions in building 2 manufacturing plants that are capable of 200K+ cars annually when the guidance has been in the mid to high teens since they started production. The pros, its positions them well if the Cosmos, Earth, etc. take off but the cons are on the number of vehicles being sold really hasn't justified the continued expansion of those facilities.

In its current state AMP-1 could've easily handled Air, Gravity and Cosmos without the need of AMP-2 at the moment. This really is a "build it and they will come" moment but time tell if it was one of the smartest or stupidest decisions in the companies history. Hopefully it's the former, midsize takes off and the rest is history.......
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It is not a "build it and they will come" moment at all. You are correct from a purely financial perspective that you would not build a second factory until the first is nearly at capacity. However the PIF wanted automotive manufacturing in Saudi Arabia for their strategic reasons. Since the PIF has majority control of Lucid, the second factory was built. The CapEx to build the factory is part of the PIF's plan to build a non-oil based industry in Saudi Arabia. It hurts financially because it is difficult to pay for the depreciation on the factories with low volumes. it also means that Cosmos and Earth have to sell well in order to better utilize the two factories.
 
borski said:
It's almost like rumors caused the stock to tank and someone (ahem, Claudio Afonso) is likely about to get sued pretty hard for libel, but who knows.

(This is unsubstantiated. I just hope it happens, because that guy is a useless tabloid troll who likes to play 'easy bake journalism' and provides literally no value with no journalistic integrity, but that's just my opinion.)
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Yet another reason why I'm thankful this forum does accept sources from the site-that-shall-not-be-named.

it's a shame so many can't see the difference between fact and rumor
 
HC_79 said:
That's always been the big disconnect with me. They invested billions in building 2 manufacturing plants that are capable of 200K+ cars annually when the guidance has been in the mid to high teens since they started production. The pros, its positions them well if the Cosmos, Earth, etc. take off but the cons are on the number of vehicles being sold really hasn't justified the continued expansion of those facilities.

In its current state AMP-1 could've easily handled Air, Gravity and Cosmos without the need of AMP-2 at the moment. This really is a "build it and they will come" moment but time tell if it was one of the smartest or stupidest decisions in the companies history. Hopefully it's the former, midsize takes off and the rest is history.......
Click to expand...
It seems similar to the path Tesla took with the S and X that led them to the 3 and Y. It's a huge gamble and you have to be willing to sustain the billions in losses to get there. But you're either committed to that path are you aren't. The issues that Lucid has had in bringing the Air and Gravity to market were foreseeable and not all that different than what Tesla had to navigate through. The real question is whether they'll be afforded the time and resources to get to the other side and if the new leadership team has the capabilities to pull off the execution. Time will tell.
 
gamix said:
Sue? Fake? Beyond confirmation Alex Partners is engaged, Afonso: "the report establishes no bankruptcy intent."

Putting facts together, which suggest possibilities, is modern media. Others equated the firm with forthcoming bankruptcy, days after the article was written. Probably can't sue them, either.

So much for efficient markets. Congrats to those who saw through it.
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CarBuzz was extremely careful to only imply, and not state things as fact. Claudio has removed the original article which absolutely stated things as fact, presumably because he is afraid of getting sued.

Real journalists would post a retraction.
 
HC_79 said:
That's always been the big disconnect with me. They invested billions in building 2 manufacturing plants that are capable of 200K+ cars annually when the guidance has been in the mid to high teens since they started production. The pros, its positions them well if the Cosmos, Earth, etc. take off but the cons are on the number of vehicles being sold really hasn't justified the continued expansion of those facilities.

In its current state AMP-1 could've easily handled Air, Gravity and Cosmos without the need of AMP-2 at the moment. This really is a "build it and they will come" moment but time tell if it was one of the smartest or stupidest decisions in the companies history. Hopefully it's the former, midsize takes off and the rest is history.......
Click to expand...
The only reason Saudi funded this is for a factory in Saudi.
 
borski said:
CarBuzz was extremely careful to only imply, and not state things as fact. Claudio has removed the original article which absolutely stated things as fact, presumably because he is afraid of getting sued.

Real journalists would post a retraction.
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That's hilarious. I bet he won't learn a lesson from it though
 
borski said:
CarBuzz was extremely careful to only imply, and not state things as fact. Claudio has removed the original article which absolutely stated things as fact, presumably because he is afraid of getting sued.

Real journalists would post a retraction.
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wait the original article was removed?

Oohhh somebody got in trouble!
 
dbsb3233 said:
They were never gonna generate truly sizable demand for a $100k vehicle. That's what $50k Cosmos & Earth are for (if they make it that far and if they get the costs low enough to sell them for that and make a profit... all big IFs).
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I take solace in the fact that the botched Air and Gravity release made sure their first botch wasn’t their volume selling midsize. One last chance!
 
Need4Sleep said:
wait the original article was removed?

Oohhh somebody got in trouble!
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Can you find it? I can’t. I can only find this one: https://****************.com/lucid/lucid-hires-turnaround-consultancy-firm-report/

Which is not the same content as before.

Possible I’m wrong or misremembering, but the internet won’t forget either way. If I’m wrong, I apologize in advance.
 
gaskiller said:
I take solace in the fact that the botched Air and Gravity release made sure their first botch wasn’t their volume selling midsize. One last chance!
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You assume that Lucid has learned from its mistakes in the Air and Gravity Launch. I am not so sure. Doing the initial midsize ramp in a factory that has never produced anything other than semi-knockdowns is not a recipe for success. While AMP-1 in Casa Grande does not have a great track record for initial ramps, they certainly have more experience than AMP-2 in Saudi Arabia.
 
Adnillien said:
You assume that Lucid has learned from its mistakes in the Air and Gravity Launch. I am not so sure. Doing the initial midsize ramp in a factory that has never produced anything other than semi-knockdowns is not a recipe for success. While AMP-1 in Casa Grande does not have a great track record for initial ramps, they certainly have more experience than AMP-2 in Saudi Arabia.
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Didn’t they build from knocked down units? And initial sales are going to Middle East and Europe. Not to USA.

The build for cosmos is completely different. How good did the Air experience help with the Gravity?

I don’t see a problem building Cosmos in Saudi
 
gaskiller said:
I take solace in the fact that the botched Air and Gravity release made sure their first botch wasn’t their volume selling midsize. One last chance!
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Yep. Cosmos sure looks like it would be "Three strikes and you're out" if it doesn't go smoothly.

If they even make it that far. Which they probably will now since it looks like the Saudis want it so badly. They have to see AMP-2 & Cosmos as make-or-break at this point too.
 
gaskiller said:
Didn’t they build from knocked down units? And initial sales are going to Middle East and Europe. Not to USA.

The build for cosmos is completely different. How good did the Air experience help with the Gravity?

I don’t see a problem building Cosmos in Saudi
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Semi-kockdowns are not anything like general assembly. I see no problem in building Cosmos in AMP-2, I only see a problem with doing the initial production ramp in AMP-2. It is not a good idea to do the initial ramp of a new platform in a new factory that has almost zero experience. One or the other is OK but not both together.
 
Northpointe said:
It seems similar to the path Tesla took with the S and X that led them to the 3 and Y. It's a huge gamble and you have to be willing to sustain the billions in losses to get there. But you're either committed to that path are you aren't. The issues that Lucid has had in bringing the Air and Gravity to market were foreseeable and not all that different than what Tesla had to navigate through. The real question is whether they'll be afforded the time and resources to get to the other side and if the new leadership team has the capabilities to pull off the execution. Time will tell.
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Tesla also had the benefit of being able to sell CARB credits to other manufacturers, estimated value of around $11 billion. And even then, they almost went bankrupt before the Model 3 launch (if random Elon tweets are to be believed). Low volume, luxury priced sedan and SUVs aren't how car companies survive.

It's just incredibly difficult, and extremely expensive, to launch a brand new car company. There's no right or wrong way to do it. The execution matters far more. Companies like Fisker and Vinfast started with a midsize CUV. One is dead and gone and the other really only exists in the home market. Rivian might have gone the way of Lordstown Motors.

Lucid followed Tesla's gameplan but they needed to have their vehicles be far more bulletproof than they are because the EV market is in a different place now. Why am I reading about so many drive unit failures in their "mature" model? Why did a popular YouTuber have so many problems with that same model? The Air should not be having this many problems this far into its lifecycle. Gravity has issues with the frunk, key, rear seat, software, window closing, and other things I've read about on these forums and Reddit.

If Lucid revealed the Cosmos tomorrow and it had well received first drives, there's still little chance I would place an order without waiting.
 
Adnillien said:
You assume that Lucid has learned from its mistakes in the Air and Gravity Launch. I am not so sure. Doing the initial midsize ramp in a factory that has never produced anything other than semi-knockdowns is not a recipe for success. While AMP-1 in Casa Grande does not have a great track record for initial ramps, they certainly have more experience than AMP-2 in Saudi Arabia.
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Well they just replaced the entire leadership team which certainly suggests they learned something. Whether or not they make the same mistakes remains to be seen.

And as far as the decision to build the midsize at AMP-2, when that's the preference of your largest investor you have no choice. Because if it wasn't for the PIF there would be no midsize vehicle to talk about.
 
gaskiller said:
Didn’t they build from knocked down units? And initial sales are going to Middle East and Europe. Not to USA.

The build for cosmos is completely different. How good did the Air experience help with the Gravity?

I don’t see a problem building Cosmos in Saudi
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Hopefully, but it's still a big leap to go from knock-downs to full production from scratch. So many more things can go wrong. Like securing far bigger parts supply lines in a location that doesn't have a lot of established auto industry.
 
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