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US carmakers should be terrified, including Lucid

hmp10 said:
And where are we today? Destroying that lead just as quickly as it was built with an erratic, unstable, antagonistic entrepreneur unhindered by a compliant Board interested only in their personal gain
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Unfortunately that statement applies to both the company and our government, which the head of said company actively supported, to the detriment of everything we thought he stood for. We are regressing in many areas compared to the rest of the world and it will take a massive turnout in November to start the process of undoing all this destruction. China is not dumb - they are disciplined and patient, and they see us self-imploding. When you see an opponent beating themselves, do not interrupt them. No way we can win long term against China when we are turning our own best allies away from us and into partnership with our enemy. The confederacy of dunces has to go if we are going to see any action on climate change, EV support, alternative energy, energy storage, etc., but right now I guess we are getting what people voted for. If our only defense is tariffs it is just a matter of time before we lose.
 
scal_air said:
And thank goodness the current administration is is implementing significant deregulation of U.S. nuclear power plants to accelerate sector growth, cutting hundreds of pages of safety and security requirements... I mean what could go wrong? /s
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Chernobyl Season 2
 
martinjlm said:
I think Ford and GM are. Both have done two things, only one of which gets widely reported in "mainstream" news.
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Respectfully, what you're missing in point #1 is that legacy OEMs are going back to their old, comfortable ways because:
a) Government incentives have gone away. No tax credit and loosening of pollution requirements. Besides, as RJ points out, they can't compete with China anyway.
b) Tesla shot itself in both feet by: 1) Not pursuing a cheaper $25k vehicle, 2) Delaying their pickup with technology while reducing the specs (range, etc.), and increasing the price, and 3) Letting their CEO go off the rails politically, pissing off their biggest purchasing demographic and making the Cybertruck a political statement. Without Tesla as serious competition (and even there only in the mid-size cross-over/hatchback segment), legacy OEMs no longer feel sales pressure.

The legacy OEM line that "the demand isn't there" is what they said from 2012 to 2020, then Model 3 and Y happened and they stopped saying that. But, now, they're just saying it again because of our government and Tesla's failures.
 
hmp10 said:
But when COVID hit, the U.S. went absolutely berserk in trying to toss overboard every tool this country had developed to foster public health care in a crisis. And today we see our once-revered CDC under the thumb of an outright crank.

A measles outbreak has just been confirmed at Ave Maria University (an ultra-conservative outfit) near where we live. Almost instantly, the neighborhood NextDoor.com thread reporting the outbreak was overwhelmed with bitching and taunting ridicule about Anthony Fauci.
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Today the Lee County Health Department confirmed there are now 11 confirmed cases of measles at Ave Maria University(an anti-vaxxer hotbed with around 1,400 students), with 3 hospitalizations and 24 more people awaiting test results.

Just sayin' . . . .
 
Imagine looking at this chart and not believing that vaccines work.

1770067208996.webp
 
Smorgasbord said:
Respectfully, what you're missing in point #1 is that legacy OEMs are going back to their old, comfortable ways because:
a) Government incentives have gone away. No tax credit and loosening of pollution requirements. Besides, as RJ points out, they can't compete with China anyway.
b) Tesla shot itself in both feet by: 1) Not pursuing a cheaper $25k vehicle, 2) Delaying their pickup with technology while reducing the specs (range, etc.), and increasing the price, and 3) Letting their CEO go off the rails politically, pissing off their biggest purchasing demographic and making the Cybertruck a political statement. Without Tesla as serious competition (and even there only in the mid-size cross-over/hatchback segment), legacy OEMs no longer feel sales pressure.

The legacy OEM line that "the demand isn't there" is what they said from 2012 to 2020, then Model 3 and Y happened and they stopped saying that. But, now, they're just saying it again because of our government and Tesla's failures.
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Yeah they are betting that they 'aren't' losing sales to EV, but now it's hybrids which we all know is a transitional technology with exception of the most extreme use cases. That being said there is some sentimental aspect that says 'EVs aren't cool', then people will not go out and buy them (again this is a legacy OEM dealership with all the various powertrains sitting next to each other). One thing I have seen is the US car market and culture is MUCH more irrational than the rest of the world when it comes to deciding what to purchase.
 
[https://****************.com/lucid/lucid-registers-18-evs-across-its-four-eu-markets-in-january/
Seems like things remain very glacial in terms of European appetite for Lucid vehicles.
I have to think this a lot of this is not cost related, but rather a backlash against American vehicles/products generally. And not because of quality. Because of politics.
 
RajD said:
[https://****************.com/lucid/lucid-registers-18-evs-across-its-four-eu-markets-in-january/
Seems like things remain very glacial in terms of European appetite for Lucid vehicles.
I have to think this a lot of this is not cost related, but rather a backlash against American vehicles/products generally. And not because of quality. Because of politics.
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They are way more expensive in EU than US compared to the German competition, but yes there is certainly backlash to US.
 
In terms of Lucid’s growth, I will never understand why Lucid does so little advertising. I can’t begin to tell you how many people have asked me why Lucid insists on keeping their products secret. Aside from some meager advertising, I totally agree with their sentiments. All this alleged capacity for what? If most don’t know you exist, let alone the quality of your cars, what’s this ‘huge’ capacity for?

I absolutely agree with Borski, short term protectionism can absolutely help IF we take advantage of it. There is no indication this is happening. Just as much of a concern is the fact that we can never compete with China based on wages. You can ignore that point and focus on politics, but that’s a fact that will always bite us as it does with so many Chinese products, whether they’re junk or good quality.

I may be in a minority, but I worry about Lucid’s future.
 
DBV said:
Not terrified, as would never, ever buy a Chinese car.
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A lot of people get the same way about Japanese cars 40-50 years ago, and at first they were cheap junk.

By the 80s they were putting out cars that were miles better than anything coming out of Detroit.

By the 90s and 2000s they were taking up a significant percent of US sales.

If we (the US and our automakers) don't get our collective head out of our ass, the same thing is going to happen again with China.
 
doubletwist said:
A lot of people get the same way about Japanese cars 40-50 years ago, and at first they were cheap junk.

By the 80s they were putting out cars that were miles better than anything coming out of Detroit.

By the 90s and 2000s they were taking up a significant percent of US sales.

If we (the US and our automakers) don't get our collective head out of our ass, the same thing is going to happen again with China.
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I think two out of three have already happened - they are cheaper and outselling the US EVs globally. The technology and reliability however, is not better but catching up. As Chinese EV manufacturers start to focus on "luxury" models, they'll be competitive with the best US and European EVs.

Agree that tariffs are a short term solution but we have lost the will to support the future of our EV manufacturers. Expecting solely, the private sector to compete with the essentially a Chinese government sponsored industry is lunacy.
 
Lucken said:
In terms of Lucid’s growth, I will never understand why Lucid does so little advertising. I can’t begin to tell you how many people have asked me why Lucid insists on keeping their products secret. Aside from some meager advertising, I totally agree with their sentiments. All this alleged capacity for what? If most don’t know you exist, let alone the quality of your cars, what’s this ‘huge’ capacity for?

I absolutely agree with Borski, short term protectionism can absolutely help IF we take advantage of it. There is no indication this is happening. Just as much of a concern is the fact that we can never compete with China based on wages. You can ignore that point and focus on politics, but that’s a fact that will always bite us as it does with so many Chinese products, whether they’re junk or good quality.

I may be in a minority, but I worry about Lucid’s future.
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The Inflation Reduction Act was doing just that before being largely stripped out by the current administration. The point of the IRA was to support investment in battery manufacture and vehicle manufacture by providing grants and low interest loans to companies that built plants in the US. Even the consumer incentive portions were directed to support domestic development and manufacture by requiring that only vehicles manufactured in North America with batteries assembled in North America be eligible for the incentive. Additionally, it supported the development of mineral mining and processing in North America by providing an escalating percentage requirement for (5) key minerals for batteries to be sourced from places other than China, Russia, and North Korea. The effect was to push development of technological innovation in the development and manufacture of batteries to North America in general, US specifically.

Now when you read about automakers writing off billions of dollars of investment in EVs, much of that is the construction of plants and engineering campuses for the development of battery technology.
 
Saksak said:
Norway’s new car sales are over 95% EV’s. They are converting gas stations into EV charging stations.
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Norway got rich extracting oil for export, and still is today (they're the world's 11th largest oil producer). All while telling their own people that oil is bad and have policies effectively forcing their people not to use it.

There's a word for that.
 
dbsb3233 said:
Norway got rich extracting oil for export, and still is today (they're the world's 11th largest oil producer). All while telling their own people that oil is bad and have policies effectively forcing their people not to use it.

There's a word for that.
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there's a difference between extracting oil to then fund government programs that are meant to improve the material living conditions of the general public and to establish a long-term plan for the economy (and the environment) versus using public funds and giving tax breaks to private corporations extracting oil and keeping their profits to themselves.

You can extract fossil fuels, acknowledge its downsides, and use the money from it to then fund projects meant to lower a society's environmental footprint in the long run. You can do both. They're not mutually exclusive.
 
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Need4Sleep said:
there's a difference between extracting oil to then fund government programs that are meant to improve the material living conditions of the general public and to establish a long-term plan for the economy and for said public versus using public funds and giving tax breaks to private corporations extracting oil and keeping their profits to themselves.

You can extract fossil fuels, acknowledge its downsides, and use the money from it to then fund projects meant to lower a society's environmental footprint in the long run. You can do both. They're not mutually exclusive.
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You certainly *can* do it (and they do), but it doesn't stop it from being highly hypocritical.

The "why" is irrelevant. It's the same reason anyone does it - to make $billions. They're an oil-blessed country and it makes them rich. I'd do it too. And we (the US) does it too (although we just happen to use most of ours rather than sell most of it to others).

It's the dissing of it and effectively forcing your own people not to use it while happily selling tons of it to everyone else that makes it hypocritical.
 
Saksak said:
I was blown away by these Chinese EV’s.


Lucid’s real competition is Chinese EV’s. All US car makers should be terrified. Didn’t we learn from the 1980’s when Japan dominated the global auto market? History is now repeating itself with the Chinese.
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The Chinese are making some great EVs but I'm not so sure their heavily subsidized business model is sustainable. Presumably the plan is to force the competition out of business where they can then make hay ending the subsidies and raising prices with a virtual monopoly. But there's 2 problems with that...

1. ICE/hybrid is still very much the majority of the market, and ain't going away nearly as fast as they (and some others) expected.
2. The personal car market may be fading by then anyway, giving way to fleet robotaxis.

There will always be personal cars, but if/when fleet robotaxis really do take off, personal car usage will shrink, and the new car market will shrink even faster as people just hang onto their cars longer by supplementing with increasing robotaxi usage. 3-car households become 2-car, 2-car become 1-car.
 
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