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It's Always Darkest Before the Light...

Blue Lectroid

Blue Lectroid

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There's been an incredible amount of negativity around Lucid recently -- Gravity launch going far less well than we all hoped for, stock price in the tank and at an all-time low, U.S. Government policies decidedly negative for EV's, even many die-hard Forum members / Lucid fans are now openly questioning the going forward thesis for Lucid. A reminder to us all...the night is always darkest just before dawn and given the core technological excellence and advantages Lucid has, all they need to do is a few things to not only get out of the doldrums but to shine brightly...(and yes, I bought more shares of LCID yesterday)...

IMHO, the company will look completely different of they simply finalize their CEO search (either name someone or make Marc Winterhoff CEO), start delivering Gravity in volume, show an exciting mid-size at the Fall auto shows and come in toward the high end of the 18,000 - 20,000 delivery estimate for the year. Those things ARE all completely in management's control and (again, IMHO) fair acid tests for whether management has got what it takes.
 
The slow Gravity launch is a shame - they have a great product in the Gravity it seems - if they can just reliably build and deliver them. The software has improved a ton even since I got my car not quite a year ago. Peter probably had to move on - he was the visionary, but his vision was probably always going to keep Lucid unprofitable. At the same time, yesterday I drove a brand new Model Y, and my Air is just a much nicer car in nearly every way. I agree, Lucid is enduring more negativity than their situation deserves. Hopefully perception doesn’t become reality.
 
Well, midsize ramp will be more painful, unless Lucid gets its supply chain in order NOW!

Peter criticized car companies that release prototype 3 years ahead of production.( I’m guessing he was critical of Rivian) Well, it allows you more time to get your supply chain in order if you finalize your product well ahead.

X6 addressable market of the Air they said. Let’s see if that really translates into X6 sales and if they can actually deliver! Market doesn’t think so looking at how the Air went.
 
I certainly hope Blue is right, but somehow I just don't share the same degree of optimism as he. It's really up to the Saudis as to how long they continue to deliver the necessary cash to stay afloat. As a friend of mine said as recently as Sunday, "I'll never understand why Lucid doesn't do more advertising, I never see them on TV". Based on the number of admiring people that still come up to me on an almost daily basis, admiring the car and asking who makes it, I have to agree with my friend. Having the best keep secret is not the pathway to success.

I used to think the key to Lucid finally unfurling its wings was the midsize, now I just hope they make it to that launch.
 
For some reason i feel Lucid dont want the stock to be up, they are deliberately keeping it low :p
 
Lucken said:
I certainly hope Blue is right, but somehow I just don't share the same degree of optimism as he. It's really up to the Saudis as to how long they continue to deliver the necessary cash to stay afloat. As a friend of mine said as recently as Sunday, "I'll never understand why Lucid doesn't do more advertising, I never see them on TV". Based on the number of admiring people that still come up to me on an almost daily basis, admiring the car and asking who makes it, I have to agree with my friend. Having the best keep secret is not the pathway to success.

I used to think the key to Lucid finally unfurling its wings was the midsize, now I just hope they make it to that launch.
Click to expand...
Working for a company that relies heavily on marketing \ advertising with both traditional media and online the ROI for TV commercials just doesn't hit like it used to with all the streaming services and access to on demand that we have. The US is also an outlier compared to the rest of the world with the popularity of podcasts. While podcast advertising in the US hasn't overtaken traditional media in total spending, it is a rapidly growing sector and is outperforming traditional channels in audience engagement and brand trust. Digital advertising as a whole, however, has become the dominant ad channel.

Here's some interesting info on why companies advertising in the US need to look at pivoting more into the digital realm over the traditional if they haven't done so already:
  • Increased engagement: Podcast listeners are highly engaged, and many are multitasking while listening, leading to higher attentiveness. Some studies report that 88% of listeners have taken action after hearing a podcast ad, and 92% of daily listeners have done so.
  • High ad recall and relevance: Because many ads are read by the host, they are perceived as more authentic and are less likely to be skipped than traditional commercials. Listeners also report that podcast ads are more relevant to their interests than those on TV or radio.
  • Targeted audiences: The ability to advertise within niche podcasts allows brands to connect with specific, highly receptive audiences. Advertisers can find engaged audiences with podcasts about true crime, finance, or other specialized topics.
  • Strong brand lift: Podcasts consistently show higher rates of brand awareness and recall compared to traditional channels and digital display ad
In other words, TV commercials are becoming a thing of the past and is probably not money well spent.
 
Kind of reminiscent of the old Audi A8 which flew under the radar for a long time despite being as good as an S Class or 7 series
Audi was almost dead at one point in time
 
petergottlieb said:
The slow Gravity launch is a shame - they have a great product in the Gravity it seems - if they can just reliably build and deliver them. The software has improved a ton even since I got my car not quite a year ago. Peter probably had to move on - he was the visionary, but his vision was probably always going to keep Lucid unprofitable. At the same time, yesterday I drove a brand new Model Y, and my Air is just a much nicer car in nearly every way. I agree, Lucid is enduring more negativity than their situation deserves. Hopefully perception doesn’t become reality.
Click to expand...

Agreed, it's extremely disappointing that the Gravity launch is worse than the Air and can only hope it's a learning lesson for Lucid on what NOT to do when it comes to the mid-market launch. If they stuff up that launch as badly as the Gravity they'll probably struggle to bounce back from it. We're almost 2 months shy of the 1 year point where Gravity orders opened and still no info \ opening of reservations for the Touring, it's a hot mess! With the Gravity's launch woes, I don't see how Lucid is going to deliver the mid-market on time either. I do hope I'm wrong on that.

Yes, the negativity is probably a little overboard but Lucid has done themselves no favors in allowing people to pile on with how they continually miss deadlines \ targets also.
 
HC_79 said:
Working for a company that relies heavily on marketing \ advertising with both traditional media and online the ROI for TV commercials just doesn't hit like it used to with all the streaming services and access to on demand that we have. The US is also an outlier compared to the rest of the world with the popularity of podcasts. While podcast advertising in the US hasn't overtaken traditional media in total spending, it is a rapidly growing sector and is outperforming traditional channels in audience engagement and brand trust. Digital advertising as a whole, however, has become the dominant ad channel.

Here's some interesting info on why companies advertising in the US need to look at pivoting more into the digital realm over the traditional if they haven't done so already:
  • Increased engagement: Podcast listeners are highly engaged, and many are multitasking while listening, leading to higher attentiveness. Some studies report that 88% of listeners have taken action after hearing a podcast ad, and 92% of daily listeners have done so.
  • High ad recall and relevance: Because many ads are read by the host, they are perceived as more authentic and are less likely to be skipped than traditional commercials. Listeners also report that podcast ads are more relevant to their interests than those on TV or radio.
  • Targeted audiences: The ability to advertise within niche podcasts allows brands to connect with specific, highly receptive audiences. Advertisers can find engaged audiences with podcasts about true crime, finance, or other specialized topics.
  • Strong brand lift: Podcasts consistently show higher rates of brand awareness and recall compared to traditional channels and digital display ad
In other words, TV commercials are becoming a thing of the past and is probably not money well spent.
Click to expand...
As a former newspaper editor (yes, really, PAPER), and then an organizational communications guy, I'll add my two cents. The basic thing I don't understand about Lucid is that they tend to overpromise and underdeliver. I mean, that's rat poison for a business or organization. I know there is pressure to paint the rosiest picture possible, but it bites you end the end. The Gravity launch is a perfect example of that for me. They weren't ready to launch in December. They had to know that, but they acted like they were launching the vehicle. Then, they did the same thing, at least twice in the spring. They could have traveled this same road and used early production and then early deliveries to build momentum and trust, if only they could have brought themselves to have realistic targets for general delivery.

Now of course, it's possible, they thought these targets were realistic, and tariffs and other things hit them multiple times. Honestly, I hope that's the case, otherwise it's just communications malpractice, and they should have known better. Generally speaking, a company or organization in Lucid's position needs to communicate more, not less, and be more, not less transparent. Build trust guys. You have great products that need a bit of polishing, but you are making real progress on that. Share the steps, the highs and even some of the lows, and lots of people will go on the journey with you.
 
petergottlieb said:
...The Gravity launch is a perfect example of that for me. They weren't ready to launch in December. They had to know that, but they acted like they were launching the vehicle. Then, they did the same thing, at least twice in the spring....
Click to expand...
My guess is Lucid they soft-launched the Gravity to satisfy one or more investors, and they hoped they could backfill later without too much damage.

A startup I worked for when young (not mine) sent a brand new prototype 1500lb high speed industrial printer, complex and the first of its kind, to a Japanese investor's engineering company for evaluation. The problem was, the printer had never been operated, as its design and fabrication was incomplete. They sent me after it to modify it, debug it, and get it running, which turned out out to be three trips to Japan over two months.

I see signs of smaller incompletions in Gravity's execution to date. The exposed track mechanism behind the second row seats, patched with a zip tie and rattling a bit, and the uncovered pit behind the third row seat, are gentle indications of more work to come.

I think this is much more common than you'd hope.
 
DeaneG said:
My guess is Lucid they soft-launched the Gravity to satisfy one or more investors, and they hoped they could backfill later without too much damage.

A startup I worked for when young (not mine) sent a brand new prototype 1500lb high speed industrial printer, the first of its kind, to a Japanese investor's company for evaluation. The problem was, the printer had never been operated, as its design and fabrication was incomplete. They sent me after it to modify it, debug it, and get it running, which turned out out to be three trips to Japan over two months.

I see signs of smaller incompletions in Gravity's execution to date. The exposed track mechanism behind the second row seats, patched with a zip tie and rattling a bit, and the uncovered pit behind the third row seat, are gentle indications of more work to come.

I think this is much more common than you'd hope.
Click to expand...
Yes, probably...
 
HC_79 said:
Working for a company that relies heavily on marketing \ advertising with both traditional media and online the ROI for TV commercials just doesn't hit like it used to with all the streaming services and access to on demand that we have. The US is also an outlier compared to the rest of the world with the popularity of podcasts. While podcast advertising in the US hasn't overtaken traditional media in total spending, it is a rapidly growing sector and is outperforming traditional channels in audience engagement and brand trust. Digital advertising as a whole, however, has become the dominant ad channel.

Here's some interesting info on why companies advertising in the US need to look at pivoting more into the digital realm over the traditional if they haven't done so already:
  • Increased engagement: Podcast listeners are highly engaged, and many are multitasking while listening, leading to higher attentiveness. Some studies report that 88% of listeners have taken action after hearing a podcast ad, and 92% of daily listeners have done so.
  • High ad recall and relevance: Because many ads are read by the host, they are perceived as more authentic and are less likely to be skipped than traditional commercials. Listeners also report that podcast ads are more relevant to their interests than those on TV or radio.
  • Targeted audiences: The ability to advertise within niche podcasts allows brands to connect with specific, highly receptive audiences. Advertisers can find engaged audiences with podcasts about true crime, finance, or other specialized topics.
  • Strong brand lift: Podcasts consistently show higher rates of brand awareness and recall compared to traditional channels and digital display ad
In other words, TV commercials are becoming a thing of the past and is probably not money well spent.
Click to expand...
They will never beat getting cars on the road with owners singing word of mouth prasies..... Since nobody sees Gravities all over to talk to it's a slow process. That being said I like taking my Air to Drive Electric volunteer events where people can see it up close or get rides. The Chicago Oak Brook studio was overrun with people on Saturday, compared to the Cadillac stealership where my family was the only people there when we went to test drive the Vistiq.
 
HC_79 said:
Agreed, it's extremely disappointing that the Gravity launch is worse than the Air and can only hope it's a learning lesson for Lucid on what NOT to do when it comes to the mid-market launch. If they stuff up that launch as badly as the Gravity they'll probably struggle to bounce back from it. We're almost 2 months shy of the 1 year point where Gravity orders opened and still no info \ opening of reservations for the Touring, it's a hot mess! With the Gravity's launch woes, I don't see how Lucid is going to deliver the mid-market on time either. I do hope I'm wrong on that.

Yes, the negativity is probably a little overboard but Lucid has done themselves no favors in allowing people to pile on with how they continually miss deadlines \ targets also.
Click to expand...

The hard fact is that Lucid decided to start Gravity deliveries before the car was fully debugged. Almost every car maker, no matter how long the maker and the model have been running, ships cars with a few minor imperfections and an occasional car with more than its share of them (hence the profusion of lemon laws). But what we have seen with the Gravity is something else altogether: emails to owners about key fob malfunctions, equally widespread reports of seat rattles, highly-touted options being pulled from production for an indeterminate time, software that's unusually unsettled and incomplete even by the low standards of other car makers, etc.

I understand the pressures Lucid was under that would tempt them to take this risk. But it was a question of whether to take the short-term reputational hit for longer delivery delays or the longer-term hit for producing problem-ridden cars. Getting a great product to market late tends to fade from the memories of the buyer market and the stock market rather quickly. Getting a problem-plagued product to market earlier creates more lasting memories and more perpetually-retold stories.

Coming on the heels of the long overhang from the press fiasco they had with Air key fob issues, I would have hoped they would have learned a lesson and made a different choice this time around.

I've spent over half a million dollars on Lucid products and well more than that on Lucid stock. I love this company's engineering. Its products drive, handle, and ride like no other, looking great while they do it. I'm hanging in for now. I have never so fallen in love with a brand as I have with this one. But I'm trying to prepare myself for having to say goodbye at some point.

Four years with the Air, and I still survey the automotive landscape without finding another sedan I'd want to replace it. And as aggravated as I am with our new Gravity's host of build issues, once it's moving down the highway I find the same with it -- no other 7-passenger vehicle I'd want in its stead.
 
I get all the doom and gloom. I really do. And I’m not going to try and talk anyone out of it.

But I like to remind folks that being here everyday, it’s easy to forget the real world. The folks who don’t live and breathe the Bear.

When I got my car almost 3 years ago now, the most frequent question I got was “What is that?” I don’t hear that much anymore. Instead I hear, “Oh you have a Lucid? How do you like it?”

What I don’t hear is “Oh, I heard they are looking for a CEO” or “Oh, they had to do a reverse stock split.” Or “That key fob is a mess.”

Just “How do you like it?” And other general questions about my experience. And I gather from their questions that they’ve heard the cars are amazing.

Which tells me two things. First, the brand is starting to catch on in the real world. And second, none of the crap we complain about every day here is dominating regular people’s perceptions of the brand.

Yet.

I’ll admit, it’s hard to remain positive sometimes. But I remind myself that I never thought Lucid was going to succeed or fail until sometime after midsize hits the market.

They have had a ton of setbacks with Gravity launch, no doubt. Some of which are industry wide problems. Some of which are unquestionably unforced errors.

It does seem like they haven’t learned enough from the Air’s launch.

But it’s clear they learned a lot from the Air’s engineering. And I do think they have a better hold on some of the marketing. At least the reviews have been far more positive than Air’s reviews were.

I still worry a lot about scaling service long term. I still worry about software that is getting better too slowly.

But we’re still in the middle of a multi-year plan, so it’s way too early to tell how it’s going to work out in the end.

At least that’s where I fall. In December, when my lease is up, Lucid is still the only brand I’m considering for my next car. And I’m holding on to what little stock I have, because it’s not going to matter much to me if it does well or tanks.

I remember when Apple was going to fail any minute now. I remember when Tesla was looking like it was going to buy the farm.

I give Lucid at least a better than 20% chance of pulling this off. And that’s a lot for the auto industry.

I’m just not sure what others here were expecting.
 
joec said:
I get all the doom and gloom. I really do. And I’m not going to try and talk anyone out of it.

But I like to remind folks that being here everyday, it’s easy to forget the real world. The folks who don’t live and breathe the Bear.

When I got my car almost 3 years ago now, the most frequent question I got was “What is that?” I don’t hear that much anymore. Instead I hear, “Oh you have a Lucid? How do you like it?”

What I don’t hear is “Oh, I heard they are looking for a CEO” or “Oh, they had to do a reverse stock split.” Or “That key fob is a mess.”

Just “How do you like it?” And other general questions about my experience. And I gather from their questions that they’ve heard the cars are amazing.

Which tells me two things. First, the brand is starting to catch on in the real world. And second, none of the crap we complain about every day here is dominating regular people’s perceptions of the brand.

Yet.

I’ll admit, it’s hard to remain positive sometimes. But I remind myself that I never thought Lucid was going to succeed or fail until sometime after midsize hits the market.

They have had a ton of setbacks with Gravity launch, no doubt. Some of which are industry wide problems. Some of which are unquestionably unforced errors.

It does seem like they haven’t learned enough from the Air’s launch.

But it’s clear they learned a lot from the Air’s engineering. And I do think they have a better hold on some of the marketing. At least the reviews have been far more positive than Air’s reviews were.

I still worry a lot about scaling service long term. I still worry about software that is getting better too slowly.

But we’re still in the middle of a multi-year plan, so it’s way too early to tell how it’s going to work out in the end.

At least that’s where I fall. In December, when my lease is up, Lucid is still the only brand I’m considering for my next car. And I’m holding on to what little stock I have, because it’s not going to matter much to me if it does well or tanks.

I remember when Apple was going to fail any minute now. I remember when Tesla was looking like it was going to buy the farm.

I give Lucid at least a better than 20% chance of pulling this off. And that’s a lot for the auto industry.

I’m just not sure what others here were expecting.
Click to expand...
I really enjoyed this post. Thanks for sharing your perspective. It's funny, I am still 2 YEARS away from the end of lease on my Air and I will absolutely either buy the car (if it continues to behave as beautifully as it has), replace it with another Air (if they've made significant upgrades worthy of the additional spend) or replace it with the mid-size (if they offer a sedan version). My wife already has a Gravity on order that we should be getting around year end to replace her absolutely dreadful (my personal opinion of it!) Ioniq 5.

I cannot see another car / brand that I can get as excited about...
 
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