Cosmos incoming ……

[prgarg]

Mini-Gravity.

Fisker Ocean

 

[fadooly]

I think starting with Saudi would be a smart move. It's a much smaller market than the US, so it would be easier to cover fully, learn from, and iron out any shortfalls or glitches before taking on the bigger market.

That said, I expect the opposite will happen. My guess is they'll ship to the US first and set aside a limited number of cars for the GCC, mainly for VIPs

 

[fadooly]

BTW Cosmos is going to be a beast int terms of processing power.

Lucid Gravity has a dual NVIDIA Orin processors providing roughly 500 TOPS only and Lucid Air has 254 TOPS

feel free to correct me

 

[Need4Sleep]

I wonder if the frunk opening will be like the Gravity?

I notice that the camo up front abruptly cuts when you look at it from the bumper, but it's continuous when you look at it from the hood.

 

[The_Don]

I think starting with Saudi would be a smart move. It's a much smaller market than the US, so it would be easier to cover fully, learn from, and iron out any shortfalls or glitches before taking on the bigger market.

That said, I expect the opposite will happen. My guess is they'll ship to the US first and set aside a limited number of cars for the GCC, mainly for VIPs

I think they're going to build cars for Saudi Arabia customers until they feel like they have the production line/supply chain dialed in. Such production will occur by the end of Q2 2027, with them opening up to other markets in H2 2027.

Exact quote here: "The final stage of prototyping is underway, including homologation and crash testing. Pilot production in Coolidge is entering its final build phase, including know-how transfer to AMP-2.....At the stage when the know-how transfer from Arizona, which is now in progress, will be completed, we're going to start producing one, two, 10, 100, 1,000 of our Midsize units to then be ready for complete launch and ramp-up at the end of the year."

They said the AMP-2 factory would be done in "early 2027" and it seems like Cosmos development is wrapping up in the next couple of months. In other words, they are certainly on track to start the production line before H2 2027, hence my thoughts above.

 

[illopp00]

I agree that's Saudi's motive, but it kind of proves my point. If the plan is driven by what's right for the Saudi auto industry, then Lucid's interests are secondary, which is the problem I was raising.

Wanting to be an automaker is a great goal but It doesn't necessarily make AMP-2 the right place to build the car Lucid's survival depends on. As I stated, AMP-2 has only done kit assembly so far, while AMP-1 already builds full vehicles. It's not like the US would be starting from scratch, the plant, the workforce, and the supply chain already exist.

Saudi's interests and Lucid's don't have to conflict. PIF has put billions into Lucid for a reason, and a failed Cosmos launch hurts the Saudi auto ambitions as much as it hurts Lucid. A smarter way to serve both is to prove the car at AMP-1 first, then transfer a proven process to AMP-2. That still gets Saudi its industry, with less risk for everyone.

I'm not saying Lucid should ignore its biggest backer. I'm saying a strategy built mainly for the shareholder's goals, not the company's survival, is a risk.

I thought they already said that the investment to update AMP-1 to mass manufacture Cosmos was not palatable. It's setup for Gravity and Air production lines, they have the test pilot line at Coolidge. Will see how they react going forward, there was some cautious optimism about some momentum building in the US EV market over the next 2 quarters. There is clearly much larger appetite in EU.

 

[Aka-none]

Some people won’t buy a Chinese car at any price while others don’t care who makes it as long as it’s cheap and it charges quick enough.

 

[Need4Sleep]

I think they're going to build cars for Saudi Arabia customers until they feel like they have the production line/supply chain dialed in. Such production will occur by the end of Q2 2027, with them opening up to other markets in H2 2027.

Exact quote here: "The final stage of prototyping is underway, including homologation and crash testing. Pilot production in Coolidge is entering its final build phase, including know-how transfer to AMP-2.....At the stage when the know-how transfer from Arizona, which is now in progress, will be completed, we're going to start producing one, two, 10, 100, 1,000 of our Midsize units to then be ready for complete launch and ramp-up at the end of the year."

They said the AMP-2 factory would be done in "early 2027" and it seems like Cosmos development is wrapping up in the next couple of months. In other words, they are certainly on track to start the production line before H2 2027, hence my thoughts above.

Coincidentally this also lines up with the number of Saudi employees I've observed doing work rotations in the US facilities, so this makes sense to me

 

[erigion]

I thought they already said that the investment to update AMP-1 to mass manufacture Cosmos was not palatable. It's setup for Gravity and Air production lines, they have the test pilot line at Coolidge. Will see how they react going forward, there was some cautious optimism about some momentum building in the US EV market over the next 2 quarters. There is clearly much larger appetite in EU.

If expanding AMP-1 isn't palatable for Cosmos then they sure are burning a lot of cash for nothing because they definitely don't need almost 4 million sq ft of factory to build Air and Gravity.

Lucid’s Purpose Built Advanced Manufacturing Plant Expands as the Company Prepares for Lucid Gravity and Future Vehicles

Lucid expands its U.S. manufacturing facility, Lucid AMP-1 (Advanced Manufacturing Plant - 1), by approximately 3 million square feet, now totaling more than 3.85M sq ft.

lucidmotors.com

Lucid's plans seem to have been made under the assumption that they would be able to sell 250k or more units of Cosmos and Earth within the next few years. But even 250k won't max out AMP-1 full capacity of 400k after the expansion is completely finished.

It's too early for them to be building a second factory but this is the issue when the money you take has strings attached.

 

[Need4Sleep]

If expanding AMP-1 isn't palatable for Cosmos then they sure are burning a lot of cash for nothing because they definitely don't need almost 4 million sq ft of factory to build Air and Gravity.

Lucid’s Purpose Built Advanced Manufacturing Plant Expands as the Company Prepares for Lucid Gravity and Future Vehicles

Lucid expands its U.S. manufacturing facility, Lucid AMP-1 (Advanced Manufacturing Plant - 1), by approximately 3 million square feet, now totaling more than 3.85M sq ft.

lucidmotors.com

Lucid's plans seem to have been made under the assumption that they would be able to sell 250k or more units of Cosmos and Earth within the next few years. But even 250k won't max out AMP-1 full capacity of 400k after the expansion is completely finished.

It's too early for them to be building a second factory but this is the issue when the money you take has strings attached.

that information was published almost 3 years ago, so many things have changed since then, and we're not privy to Lucid's plans for their AMP1 facility. At this rate, who knows what'll happen

 

[gaskiller]

If expanding AMP-1 isn't palatable for Cosmos then they sure are burning a lot of cash for nothing because they definitely don't need almost 4 million sq ft of factory to build Air and Gravity.

Lucid’s Purpose Built Advanced Manufacturing Plant Expands as the Company Prepares for Lucid Gravity and Future Vehicles

Lucid expands its U.S. manufacturing facility, Lucid AMP-1 (Advanced Manufacturing Plant - 1), by approximately 3 million square feet, now totaling more than 3.85M sq ft.

lucidmotors.com

Amp-1 is 90k capacity right now…
Lucid's plans seem to have been made under the assumption that they would be able to sell 250k or more units of Cosmos and Earth within the next few years. But even 250k won't max out AMP-1 full capacity of 400k after the expansion is completely finished.

It's too early for them to be building a second factory but this is the issue when the money you take has strings attached.

 

[Northpointe]

If expanding AMP-1 isn't palatable for Cosmos then they sure are burning a lot of cash for nothing because they definitely don't need almost 4 million sq ft of factory to build Air and Gravity.

Lucid’s Purpose Built Advanced Manufacturing Plant Expands as the Company Prepares for Lucid Gravity and Future Vehicles

Lucid expands its U.S. manufacturing facility, Lucid AMP-1 (Advanced Manufacturing Plant - 1), by approximately 3 million square feet, now totaling more than 3.85M sq ft.

lucidmotors.com

Lucid's plans seem to have been made under the assumption that they would be able to sell 250k or more units of Cosmos and Earth within the next few years. But even 250k won't max out AMP-1 full capacity of 400k after the expansion is completely finished.

It's too early for them to be building a second factory but this is the issue when the money you take has strings attached.

They over estimated the demand for the Air and Gravity. That’s the subtext of everything they’re doing right now. It remains to be seen how and when that will factor into the future utilization of AMP-1. If the two legacy models can’t be built and sold profitably a pivot will need to occur.

 

[illopp00]

I think most of AMP-1 is mostly empty square footage unfortunately at this point. The real capacity for Air and Gravity is only 90K units, which is still under-utilized but already paid for. Elon is being much more aggressive to pivot Austin from the Cybertruck because his profits are vaporizing and they are spending cash like crazy on investments.

 

[socktucker]

They over estimated the demand for the Air and Gravity. That’s the subtext of everything they’re doing right now. It remains to be seen how and when that will factor into the future utilization of AMP-1. If the two legacy models can’t be built and sold profitably a pivot will need to occur.

I felt like the 27 Air “launch” was pretty telling. I don’t even think there was a press release. Feels like a parts bin clear out.

 

[bcjenkins]

I felt like the 27 Air “launch” was pretty telling. I don’t even think there was a press release. Feels like a parts bin clear out.

Hey! That's no way to talk about my order.

 

[The_Don]

They overestimated Air/Gravity sales and also overestimated how much they'd be able to sell each for. I don't forsee either of those vehicles being profitable until they do a major overhaul on them based on what they've learned from midsize.

 

[Adnillien]

that information was published almost 3 years ago, so many things have changed since then, and we're not privy to Lucid's plans for their AMP1 facility. At this rate, who knows what'll happen

Lucid has been adding space to AMP-1 for midsize body in white as well as conveyors from BIW to the paint shop. The building is cheap compared to the BIW robotics so outsiders have no idea what is in that space. However, it would not make sense to add that space to AMP-1 unless there are plans to build midsize in AMP-1.

 

[Need4Sleep]

Lucid has been adding space to AMP-1 for midsize body in white as well as conveyors from BIW to the paint shop. The building is cheap compared to the BIW robotics so outsiders have no idea what is in that space. However, it would not make sense to add that space to AMP-1 unless there are plans to build midsize in AMP-1.

Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Lucid made the decision to wait out the fate of the midsize program at AMP1 until a change in the administration's tune to foreign suppliers and the EV landscape as a whole. I also wouldn't be surprised if other auto makers are also deciding to wait out for more EV-friendly policies to come into effect before committing more resources. Assuming these guesses are true, then I can understand why Lucid would be full-steam ahead with midsize at AMP2 while waiting out for better policies.

Again, a whole lot of guesses and assumptions going on with what I've said

 

[billy]

so the first cosmos to be sold in the u.s. will be made in saudi arabia? wonder what buyers will think of that vs u.s. made

 

[victoryroad]

so the first cosmos to be sold in the u.s. will be made in saudi arabia? wonder what buyers will think of that vs u.s. made

Not sure it will make a difference if it is a competitive offering.