Robotaxis prediction

[watermelonrooste]

You are right about the progress FSD (Supervised) has made. I've experienced it from the early dark days when it tried twice to kill me to where it is now where it legitimately does drive better than most of the US driving population. But please note if you are not already aware that the FSD in Cybertaxis is NOT THE SAME as FSD (Supervised) in the cars that people can buy.

Agree. I’ll wear a helmet if I get into cyber taxi

 

[martinjlm]

So what is the difference between the cybercab and a Model 3 (for example)? Does the cybercab have more/different detection points?

Completely different hardware and software stacks. The Cybercab uses different hardware and different software stacks from what person on the street can get in Model 3 / Y / Cybertruck. The Cybercab uses double the RAM of the civilian version and also uses a double GPS system. There are other differences but that's off the top of my head. The Cybercab software is no doubt informed via all the experience miles of the civilian version but it is not the same version.

 

[mobada]

So what is the difference between the cybercab and a Model 3 (for example)? Does the cybercab have more/different detection points?

The underlying software is more/less the same. Same reaction time, same general safety, etc.

I think tesla now has a rumored HW4.5 computer which has 3 chips and 48gb of memory vs 2 chips and 32gb

If that is true the consumer cars that also have HW4.5 might run the version of consumer FSD designed for the lesser computer

The cybercab also has camera cleaning for every camera. Consumer car so do not although the cameras really do not get dirty enough for this to be a problem

 

[mobada]

The Cybercab uses double the RAM of the civilian version and also uses a double GPS system

The rumor is that tesla is using the HW4.5 computer. That's also found in consumer cars. The only hardware difference is the camera cleaning, which for everyday use is an insignificant difference.

GPS doesn't really matter for consumer FSD since they do not drive with HD maps

 

[mobada]

I had a 2018 Model S and sold it in 2025, because of Musk. I had seen videos of FSD and heard from my friends, what it can do, but always discounted it as hype. I recently test drove Tesla with FSD and could not believe how good it has gotten. You have said in many posts that you don't care about self driving. But you should experience it once, just to see the technology. It is truly amazing. I don't know which will be better for Robotaxi. Time will tell. This is like blu-ray vs HD-DVD from a decade ago.

Something also worth mentioning. I test drove a model Y L with FSD and during the test drive it nearly clipped the curb 3x and you can feel the car sink into the dip between where the road is and probably inches from the curb. Otherwise the self driving seemed normal.

I thought it was an issue with the different wheelbase of the car but the sales advisor said that car is the only one with an issue due to it being the first every demo drive preproduction unit.

That makes me think a small percentage of people will have an issue with FSD which will show itself and make all cars look worse than they are

There was a guy who had an issue where FSD would have caused a serious wreck and even if 1 out of 30K people have this issue, people immediately chalk it up to FSD not being perfect, when really it is just a mechanical issue with his car.

 

[martinjlm]

The rumor is that tesla is using the HW4.5 computer. That's also found in consumer cars. The only hardware difference is the camera cleaning, which for everyday use is an insignificant difference.

GPS doesn't really matter for consumer FSD since they do not drive with HD maps

When did they start putting the HW4.5 computer in cars. My understanding was they have been considering, possibly for 2027 or 2028 but had not done so yet. Did this change? Also I think the memory on the Cybercabs is 64 GB. That's why I said double. Customer cars have 32 GB.

 

[mobada]

When did they start putting the HW4.5 computer in cars. My understanding was they have been considering, possibly for 2027 or 2028 but had not done so yet. Did this change? Also I think the memory on the Cybercabs is 64 GB. That's why I said double. Customer cars have 32 GB.

I don't think the cybercabs have double the memory. Those are unsubstantiated rumors.

There is a new FSD in computer cars and it is labeled HW4.5 It was even in the tesla parts catalog as HW45.

Keep in mind the gps is soldered to the FSD computer. It may as well have the new gps unit as well.

Tesla later claimed it was a labeling error but I bet that is a load of BS

it's trivial for tesla to produce a 3 chip variant of the FSD computer and elon publicly said the FSD computer costs ~$650. That's only $900 for 3 chip

 

[The_Don]

Admittedly I provided a lazy answer before, but to set the record straight here, @mobada has put a lot of misinformation in this thread. Going to just address a few points because I don't want to type an essay:

(1) "Right now waymo shuts down in light rain (or no rain but in forecast) because of getting stuck in floodwaters."

This is not true at all. They have pauses when there are flash flood warnings and severe thunderstorms.

(2) "If you take a city like metro Atlanta, Tesla has 10 service centers. Between that and 700 superchargers you don't need a depot. Now repeat for every city in america. Tesla also has 2-3 days of driving range. Waymo has 1/2 day at most."

Tesla built a depot in Austin, the only city that they have a meaningful autonomous fleet. They are also aiming to automate the charging and cleaning at said depot. This is not something any of their service centers can do. They also charge their vehicles every day so your point on driving range is moot.

(3) "There is a new FSD in computer cars and it is labeled HW4.5 It was even in the tesla parts catalog as HW45.... Tesla later claimed it was a labeling error but I bet that is a load of BS"

This claim is unsubstantiated. If anything Tesla would want to demonstrate further enhancements in their vehicles, not hide them. What we do know for sure is Tesla is running more memory on their cybercabs with 64 gb.

(4) "Look at zoox. They have been doing unsupervised much longer than tesla and their driving does not appear to have gotten any better... They also seem to not be improving or increasing ODD."

Zoox is in 12 markets, with fully autonomous operations in two cities. They have expanded significantly in the past year and have plans to continue expanding. There is truly no basis to suggest their driving isn't getting better and they haven't increased their ODD.

(5) "Tesla reported driverless miles for that week and it was 558K miles. At 100 miles per vehicle per day that puts them at 797 vehicles. Even with 150 miles per day (I doubt it's ever that high) it's still over 500 vehicles and definitely ahead of waymo in Austin."

Waymos are hitting 130-200+ mile days including cities that are much more dense than Austin. Also, Teslas "driverless" miles include its entire fleet. Yes there has been an increase in vehicles in Austin, but 30% of their 2026 miles were logged outside of Austin. Suggesting all or nearly all of the miles driven that week were in Austin is misleading.

 

[mobada]

Tesla built a depot in Austin, the only city that they have a meaningful autonomous fleet. They are also aiming to automate the charging and cleaning at said depot. This is not something any of their service centers can do. They also charge their vehicles every day so your point on driving range is moot.

Tesla charges at superchargers overnight. They do not charge at the depot. The "depot" is just several parking lots. In the other cities it is a dirt lot.

I don't have evidence that they charge everyday, but either way charging everyday is worse than 2x a day where you'd have to resort to charging during the daytime. tesla charges at superchargers in the middle of the night.

The other thing not mentioned is cycling your battery 2x per day (high discharge percentage 80-10%) will kill your battery in record time. That's why not having only 6 hrs of range like waymo does is a significant advantage. Tesla also only uses 40-50kWh which is also a big advantage

Look how the waymo staging lot looks. Flat out embarrassing. They have to charge 2x+ per day and their EVs are charged using natural gas generators. Really terrible. That's why power consumption and efficiency matters. Sometimes you get in a waymo where the energy consumption screen and range is visible and it's embarrassingly bad. You'll see ranges of like 30 or 40 miles remaining

Zoox is in 12 markets, with fully autonomous operations in two cities. They have expanded significantly in the past year and have plans to continue expanding. There is truly no basis to suggest their driving isn't getting better and they haven't increased their ODD.

This is 100% false. Zoox is in zero markets where they operate a normal rideshare service. In the only markets they operate driverless with pickup/dropoff (not bus routes), the car does not enter parking lots and blocks the middle of the road. It has ridiculously small geofences with very few pickup/dropoff points, drives at less than 25mph and has serious safety issues like blocking intersections and phantom braking. They also only run around 2 vehicles at a time. Tesla was ahead of zoox at the beginning of the year.

Zoox has never had a technology that can drive in parking lots (phantom braking is bad) and when the car stops to drop passengers off, it does not pull over. It blocks the road. they have to operate a ridiculously small geofence and only run 1 or 2 cars at a time. Zoox has never operated a real service. 99% of their miles come from vegas where they drive bus routes between casinos. Compared to tesla they have had some pretty serious accidents and injuries.

Tesla is absolutely dancing around zoox.

To quote the zoox ceo's own words: "They don't have technology that works."

Waymos are hitting 130-200+ mile days including cities that are much more dense than Austin. Also, Teslas "driverless" miles include its entire fleet. Yes there has been an increase in vehicles in Austin, but 30% of their 2026 miles were logged outside of Austin. Suggesting all or nearly all of the miles driven that week were in Austin is misleading.

Tesla breaks down mileage by city. Almost all of tesla's miles are in austin. You can see right now from the F1 race this weekend. It's laughable how many teslas were on the road.

Waymo average mileage has been reported around 150. I think tesla's utilization is low. They have 1000 vehicles registered in texas and tesla appears to be using most of them.

At the rate tesla is scaling, be end of Q4 they will have probably 500 vehicles per city (1500-2000 in texas) and hopefully geofences grow 2x with highway unlock. then between other markets like vegas, jacksonville, phoenix, etc. tesla could hit 2500+

Waymo must be at least somewhat alarmed by this progress even in the current state or they wouldn't be expanding to 20K vehicles next year, which is probably not even reasonable given how bad the new Zeekr drives.

This is not true at all. They have pauses when there are flash flood warnings and severe thunderstorms.

No. They straight up don't run in rain. I live in atlanta and there is a street in west midtown that floods when it rains, even lightly. Waymo shuts down in rain. Of any level

Waymo even shuts down for forecast of rain

 

[mobada]

If you're curious waymo gets around 1.4 mi/kWh and the natural gas charger they use provides about 40% efficiency. That's just embarrassing on so many levels. That's worse than gas vehicles.

 

[illopp00]

1hr 30 mins of deepness