A “one-size-fits-all” winter range number is not very useful. People here experience such a wide range of efficiencies due to geography, tires, and driving style, plus fast-charging SoC preferences, in addition to weather, the only relevant way to answer the question is with a percentage decline from normal summer conditions. Driving style, and usage of ACC and regen, alone can account for a +- 20% differential.
No one disagrees with what you said.
That's why there has been much advocacy for Lucid to implement the SoC upon arrival and the Real-Time efficiency meter. In reality, when
@audiojerry and family drives from WI to AZ, each of his charging segment will have different efficiencies as modulated by temperature, terrain, speed, use of heater, night or day, etc. etc.
That said, the following factors will be prevailing. Each one will compromise the AT's range:
> first AT, like the other Lucid variants, will not deliver the EPA rated range on such a trip. Typical discounts ~25-30% at highway speed, with fair weather.
>
@audiojerry plans to drive between 75-80mph. This will further rode the efficiency.
> we don't know what route he is going to take
> the temperatures could be colder or warmer
> use of in-car heaters, massage seats, etc. will compromise the efficiency further
Neither @fisherel nor I can predict his actual realizable range. Nevertheless,
@fisheral's recommendation of planning for 200 mile legs is pragmatic.
Again, if
@audiojerry researched his route and charging stops, he can use an Efficiency Meter or mental math to optimize his journey.