Future Battery Tech speculation (long term ownership)

[Pittsburgher]

Hi All -

curious for members thoughts on the probability for retrofitting of future battery tech into our existing Air (and Gravity vehicles). It seems likely that some form of next generation battery tech will start working it's way into new vehicles in a few years. I know there has been a lot of touting of solid state tech in development (like Quantum Scape ? maybe Toyota? Chinese Companies ?) that the next gen batteries will have considerably more capacity/battery (or Kg of batteries) and potentially charge much more quickly due to better thermal characteristics. The "speculated" improvement seems to be in the 50% to 75% area (possible much more as it relates to 20% --> 80% charging time).

Putting aside any arguments about whether, or how long it will be until this happens . . . lets go with the assumption that it will happen (along the lines of what I have stated above), and will be widely utilized in new vehicles starting in 4-5 years. So, I'll pose 2 questions and look for peoples thoughts on them (including one or two of the Lucid "insiders" who can provide their thoughts as well - with "better informed" (?) speculation - obviously not speaking on behalf of the company):

1. At the time new battery tech is incorporated into new models/vehicles (or sometime within a year or two afterwards) do we think that Lucid would offer options for customers to retrofit new battery tech into existing vehicles like ours ? ?
2. If not - do we see used EV depreciation picking up to "new vehicle depreciation" levels - say - 20 - 25% per year (on vehicles that are already 7, 8, 9 years old which normally have lower depreciation levels by that time) ? ?

I'll just add, re question #1 - that the slowness of Lucid to develop/commercialize/offer V2H charging makes me very skeptical.

Doug

 

[TahoeMichael]

I'd be quite surprised if Lucid offered any official battery upgrade path in existing vehicles. It's theoretically possible, but just seems very unlikely. When better batteries do become available, I don't expect that to make a really obvious dent in the value of a used Air/Gravity. Partly because the range and charging speed is already amongst the best available, so better batteries becoming available will result in a new leader-of-the-pack vehicle, but Air/Gravity will still be far from bottom of the barrel. And also because a lot of the potential buyers will not know or care what technology is inside the car, they'll just look at whether the range and charging meet their needs.

 

[Tâm]

It's a matter of economics.

Yes, if the new battery pack is backward compatible (same format, fits well just like the original does...) and cheaper.

If an old pack needs to be replaced under warranty, it doesn't make sense for Lucid to get an older and more expensive pack while the newer version is cheaper.

Beyond warranty demands, if these are upgrade demands, I don't see why Lucid would refuse another stream of profits.

However, I don't think that will happen any time soon until the much cheaper costs will happen.

Currently, we have challenges with tariffs, supply chains, diplomatic fallout after South Koreans on short term visa, B-1 visas or the Visa Waiver Program (ESTA), were cuffed in chained links...

So expect the battery improvement in the US is slow while countries who value skilled workers like China would continue to advance battery technology faster.