Analysts are brutal. I think they're wrong. I'm hoping to start a discussion, here are my thoughts:
I've owned various cars, from Porches and BMWs to Lexuses (Lexi?), Acuras, Hondas, and Volkswagens. From beat-up cars held together with duct tape to high-performance sports cars, I've driven them all. Recently, I became interested in EVs because of their impressive performance numbers and my dislike of gas stations. While Tesla initially impressed me, it felt stale, and I saw too many on the road. They might as well rebrand it as Tesla-Uber. However, within five minutes of driving the Lucid, I told my wife, "this changes everything." It's a compelling product. Selling or leasing them at a loss right now is smart, although unintentional. It takes one look to raise curiosity, It only takes one drive for people to see its potential. These vehicles are magnificent. Currently, I sort of look at the Air Pure as a loss leader, but the long-term potential is astronomical.
After a fantastic test drive, I logged into my brokerage account to research the company. The carnage of share prices and analyst views were alarming and made no sense. I’m a curious person, and I had to dig deeper.
I conducted a thorough investigation, examining the company, its executives, filings, disclosures, and history. I also reviewed reams of analyst material and took a close look at PIF and other sovereign wealth funds. Most importantly, I read everything I could about MBS. As everyone knows, he’s the de facto dictator of KSA. My research eventually led me to explore his rivals - the Sheik of Qatar, the Sheik of UAE, and the Sheik of Dubai (yes, I know Dubai is part of the UAE, but you know why he's mentioned).
I believe analysts have overlooked the significance of these rivalries and MBS's motivations. His motivations are an unquantifiable factor that might be more important than any balance sheet. Unlike the US, where rivalries are quashed and motivations are fluid, this is a cultural matter rooted in honor, tradition, respect, ego, and competition. These rivalries are constant. Dubai is a monument to itself, Qatar essentially bribed its way into hosting the World Cup, so what will KSA do? I think it starts with Vision 2030.
KSA's Vision 2030 is a plan for prosperity beyond oil. MBS knows he has limited time to build a legacy, as KSA is nearing the end of its oil income. He wants to be the progressive Prince who guides his country out of oil dependence, establishes a financial center and ultimately surpassing his rival princes through economic power and modernization. His desire for modernization is not just a passion project; it's the first step in building his legend. The optics of failure would be terrible. Look at what he’s planning - NEOM, an ambitious project bigger than Dubai. It's already under construction, but it might be different than initially envisioned. Now consider Lucid. With Lucid, MBS has a relatively inexpensive way to make a statement, putting him on par with innovators and forward-thinking leaders. Every Lucid with a "Saudi Made" badge is a statement, and every award is a feather in his cap.
KSA recently announced an automotive cluster complex in a special economic zone dedicated to King Abdullah, projected to contribute $25 billion to GDP. Many automotive companies are expected to be involved. It's clear that KSA wouldn't sponsor such a project without a Saudi auto manufacturer. KSA will not launch a flagship automotive project without producing autos. They can get that on the cheap through Ludic. PIF is almost a trillion USD. The cost of incubating Lucid hardly registers in comparison. Tellingly, KSA just announced $600 million in US investments. Even the most pessimistic person would concede that a portion of that, small or large, will go to the KSA-owned automaker we all favor.
For these reasons, I not only bought a Lucid but also acquired a few thousand shares. I’m just going to sit on them and adhere to the hold doctrine to see where I wind up. Does anyone have additional or contrary information? Musings, opinions, critiques, rumors or any information at all? As I mentioned, I hope we have a lively discussion!
I've owned various cars, from Porches and BMWs to Lexuses (Lexi?), Acuras, Hondas, and Volkswagens. From beat-up cars held together with duct tape to high-performance sports cars, I've driven them all. Recently, I became interested in EVs because of their impressive performance numbers and my dislike of gas stations. While Tesla initially impressed me, it felt stale, and I saw too many on the road. They might as well rebrand it as Tesla-Uber. However, within five minutes of driving the Lucid, I told my wife, "this changes everything." It's a compelling product. Selling or leasing them at a loss right now is smart, although unintentional. It takes one look to raise curiosity, It only takes one drive for people to see its potential. These vehicles are magnificent. Currently, I sort of look at the Air Pure as a loss leader, but the long-term potential is astronomical.
After a fantastic test drive, I logged into my brokerage account to research the company. The carnage of share prices and analyst views were alarming and made no sense. I’m a curious person, and I had to dig deeper.
I conducted a thorough investigation, examining the company, its executives, filings, disclosures, and history. I also reviewed reams of analyst material and took a close look at PIF and other sovereign wealth funds. Most importantly, I read everything I could about MBS. As everyone knows, he’s the de facto dictator of KSA. My research eventually led me to explore his rivals - the Sheik of Qatar, the Sheik of UAE, and the Sheik of Dubai (yes, I know Dubai is part of the UAE, but you know why he's mentioned).
I believe analysts have overlooked the significance of these rivalries and MBS's motivations. His motivations are an unquantifiable factor that might be more important than any balance sheet. Unlike the US, where rivalries are quashed and motivations are fluid, this is a cultural matter rooted in honor, tradition, respect, ego, and competition. These rivalries are constant. Dubai is a monument to itself, Qatar essentially bribed its way into hosting the World Cup, so what will KSA do? I think it starts with Vision 2030.
KSA's Vision 2030 is a plan for prosperity beyond oil. MBS knows he has limited time to build a legacy, as KSA is nearing the end of its oil income. He wants to be the progressive Prince who guides his country out of oil dependence, establishes a financial center and ultimately surpassing his rival princes through economic power and modernization. His desire for modernization is not just a passion project; it's the first step in building his legend. The optics of failure would be terrible. Look at what he’s planning - NEOM, an ambitious project bigger than Dubai. It's already under construction, but it might be different than initially envisioned. Now consider Lucid. With Lucid, MBS has a relatively inexpensive way to make a statement, putting him on par with innovators and forward-thinking leaders. Every Lucid with a "Saudi Made" badge is a statement, and every award is a feather in his cap.
KSA recently announced an automotive cluster complex in a special economic zone dedicated to King Abdullah, projected to contribute $25 billion to GDP. Many automotive companies are expected to be involved. It's clear that KSA wouldn't sponsor such a project without a Saudi auto manufacturer. KSA will not launch a flagship automotive project without producing autos. They can get that on the cheap through Ludic. PIF is almost a trillion USD. The cost of incubating Lucid hardly registers in comparison. Tellingly, KSA just announced $600 million in US investments. Even the most pessimistic person would concede that a portion of that, small or large, will go to the KSA-owned automaker we all favor.
For these reasons, I not only bought a Lucid but also acquired a few thousand shares. I’m just going to sit on them and adhere to the hold doctrine to see where I wind up. Does anyone have additional or contrary information? Musings, opinions, critiques, rumors or any information at all? As I mentioned, I hope we have a lively discussion!
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