Cantor's Q2 delivery preview! (and a squeeze?)

[AZLucidGuy]

LCID is up about 29% over the past two sessions (through Monday's close). The catalyst looks fundamental: Cantor Fitzgerald's Q2 delivery forecast, which makes up for the Q1 shortfall from the Gravity recall over the second-row middle-seat seatbelt-attachment weld. Great news in my view.

Cantor's Andres Sheppard previewed Q2 deliveries at 5,170 units, above the roughly 4,618 consensus. That's the first real data point supporting what a lot of us have argued: Q1's miss (3,093) was the 29-day stop-sale, not demand. The lost quarter is coming back.

The move was likely amplified by short covering. LCID went in heavily shorted, about 37% of float (closer to 50% on a free-float basis), with record-level bearish bets and rising borrow costs reported the week prior. Friday's volume hit 35.5 million shares versus a three-month average of about 17 million.

****************.com/lucid/lucid-shares-extend-climb-to-23-over-two-days-after-cantor-delivery-forecast/

 

[mike1121]

I always thought the demand argument was weak based off my limited experience during ordering and pickup last month. Gravities were being reserved very fast and disappearing from available stock within a day or two. They had a full delivery schedule when I picked up also. Just seemed to me like they were moving units briskly.

 

[DeaneG]

I'm starting to see Gravitys in my neighborhood almost as often as I see Airs, with a four year head start on Air sales.

 

[illopp00]

I saw that too, I own TSLA and RIVN and all 3 were up today on decently good news of delivery beats across the 3. Which would be very telling to the market that the dedicated EV brands are outperforming the regular car market.

 

[dgib85]

The MC is 2.5 billion currently and Waymo robotaxis have something like a 100 Billion dollar evaluation.

Stock has been beaten down for the past 2-3 years.

Lastly its a start up that's in the 8th inning of the start up phase.

So the stock was bound to go up or bankrupt

 

[AZLucidGuy]

The MC is 2.5 billion currently and Waymo robotaxis have something like a 100 Billion dollar evaluation.

Stock has been beaten down for the past 2-3 years.

Lastly its a start up that's in the 8th inning of the start up phase.

So the stock was bound to go up or bankrupt

The two current catalysts appear to be the possible Q2 delivery beat and the short squeezing.

 

[The_Don]

Lucid's stock movement is in line with its industry, suggesting it doesn't really have anything to do with Lucid. If you look at Tesla and Rivian, they're both up a good amount over the past two sessions as well. Lucid is up more, but that's just because it has a higher beta.

 

[gaskiller]

Lucid's stock movement is in line with its industry, suggesting it doesn't really have anything to do with Lucid. If you look at Tesla and Rivian, they're both up a good amount over the past two sessions as well. Lucid is up more, but that's just because it has a higher beta.

Partly true but that’s not the whole reason. It’s been beaten down so bad, ripe for a huge reversal. Company should be worth at least 10 billion.

 

[AZLucidGuy]

Lucid's stock movement is in line with its industry, suggesting it doesn't really have anything to do with Lucid. If you look at Tesla and Rivian, they're both up a good amount over the past two sessions as well. Lucid is up more, but that's just because it has a higher beta.

Fair point that there was a sector-wide EV bid those two days, but the magnitude doesn't fit beta: LCID ran about 29% versus Rivian 12% and Tesla 6%. A beta near 1.6 predicts maybe 10 to 18%, not 29%, so roughly half the move is Lucid-specific. And it has a name: Cantor's Q2 delivery note (5,170 vs 4,618), which TSLA and RIVN didn't get. LCID was already up 15.6% Friday while Rivian managed 5% on a day the catalyst was company-specific.