Big three or the new three?

[scal_air]

I am posting this under Gravity for obvious reasons .

Say in 2050…. Which one is left standing? 1) The big three (GM, Ford, Stellantis) or the New three (Tesla , Rivian, Lucid)?

FYI, Trump is gone by then (not a political statement, just biology). I have a strong feeling solar, wind, EVs will survive.

I am 100% sure it’s the latter. The big three are gone. Chinese are replacing them easy peasy .

Thoughts?

pS: very US centric so please ignore if not in US

It's an interesting question, but I think it all comes down to who our government will support in 20 years. There really is no free market when it comes to cars as tariffs are used to keep chinese EVs out. But as Tesla pioneered the early EV movement with some government support, that seems to be drying up today. I agree it's an aberration and green power and EVs will receive support again in the future but will it be enough to recapture the lead in technology and manufacturing? Look what the Chinese have done with EVs, having massive government support - they really are the global leaders and I fear there is little hope of catching them.

EVs being a new technology will continue to make advances through technology unlike ICE cars. Inexorably advances will make EVs more desirable than ICE cars - cheaper, longer range, fast charging. The charging infrastructure will grow accordingly. At that point, the dinos will need subsidies and higher tariffs to keep the Chinese EVs out. Will they get it? Will the concept too big to fail justify continuing a vast money pit of our car manufacturing? The answer seems clear to me to pivot now but what do I know?