Useful videos I found ... with a foreword.

magesh

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PDX (Actually Washougal, WA)
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X7 M60i, AGT
Posting this as a FYI. Don't flame me. This is a FYI.

If you have seen it & disagree, move on OR post why you disagree in a professional manner. Don't bash just because this is a public forum and you can be negative, We have enough of that. Please be constructive.

For the others, who are financially challenged like me, these two videos got thru' my morning coffee. IMO, buying this car is pseudo investing into the company, whether it is ~$90K for a Pure or ~$180K for a Dream. Do your own due diligence (personal wellbeing, $ risk you can endure, reading the market condition tea leaves, etc.). YMMV, literally.

The two videos summarize LCID. I viewed a bunch & these two caught my eye and thought I would share,. And if it helps one member, positively, in this group, I'm good.

My take, if you care about why I posted it:
- I personally still believe in LCID with ALL of their setbacks so far & with what may look to a very un-realistic BS heading into 2023
- Is LCID over optimistic? Maybe. Time will tell.
- TSLA did not produce profits till several years back & their first MS was released almost 11 years back.
- RVN, I think & IMHO, is hurting more than LCID. Yes they are producing cars, but they are also not $uper $trong. (I have not looked thru' their financials before posting this.)
- FSKR is now starting to offer non-refundable deposits to lock in a 'maybe' the EV credit. (Again, I don't know their exact reservation count. I heard it it/was >40K
- There are/will be TSLA fan-bois touting why LCID will fail. (But conveniently forget what was happening 10+ years back @ TSLA. Or their FSD BS. Or the Cybertruck).
-- Side note: Back 2011/12 I put & withdrew my $1K TSLA MS deposit, since the cost/mile (it was about 250 miles back then if I remember right) did not add up. Put that deposit into TSLA, withdrew it about 7+ years and funded the MS purchase and more. I was a Musk fan-boi, but got jaded with his over promises (FSD being the biggest one) and his actions ("I'm above the law" attitude), TSLA's closed eco-system, etc ...

For the trolls & naysayers: Yes, I / we hear you. We can read. Understand. E'LUCID'ate fundamentals, etc. LOUD & CLEAR. Thank you for your service. Please don't crowd the thread.

Cheers & happy "Monday Blues".
 
in the PIF, is the lucid one of its first/older investments? trying to see if there are older investments by the PIF that we can use as a measuring stick to see the saudi's patience and appetite for loss. if we can find precedents that we can compare lucid to, it'll give us a better picture of lucid's future imo.

i dont think lucid can be examined and analyzed like a normal stock. when about ~60% of the shares are held by the PIF, the only question that really matters is, how patient are the saudis? it's a double edge sword. you either get all the insulation and funding in the world if they decide to stand by you, or you can be absolutely obliterated in weeks when they decide to drop you.

personally, i feel like the saudis will be too proud to let lucid fail this early on. all the money they are throwing around to white-wash, sport-wash, green-wash, whatever-wash their image globally, most likely means they'll at least give lucid a couple extra runways in the future before deciding what to do. so if money isn't an issue, all that's left is whether lucid's management will be able to fix their current problems. and from my experience, solving problems becomes easier when you don't have to budget for it.
 
in the PIF, is the lucid one of its first/older investments? trying to see if there are older investments by the PIF that we can use as a measuring stick to see the saudi's patience and appetite for loss. if we can find precedents that we can compare lucid to, it'll give us a better picture of lucid's future imo.

i dont think lucid can be examined and analyzed like a normal stock. when about ~60% of the shares are held by the PIF, the only question that really matters is, how patient are the saudis? it's a double edge sword. you either get all the insulation and funding in the world if they decide to stand by you, or you can be absolutely obliterated in weeks when they decide to drop you.

personally, i feel like the saudis will be too proud to let lucid fail this early on. all the money they are throwing around to white-wash, sport-wash, green-wash, whatever-wash their image globally, most likely means they'll at least give lucid a couple extra runways in the future before deciding what to do. so if money isn't an issue, all that's left is whether lucid's management will be able to fix their current problems. and from my experience, solving problems becomes easier when you don't have to budget for it.
IDK the answer to your first statement. https://www.pif.gov.sa/en/Pages/OurInvestments-Global.aspx

Yes. Both your paragraphs could turn out to be true. Time will tell. And yes, push to shove, Lucid, under duress, could very well get things done. Example: They could suspend Gravity till 2025 or beyond & work on getting the P&T out, since that will be their money makers. They may end up 'offering' different battery sizes or subscription models for the battery sizes, depending on who wants what & when; and therefore price the vehicles accordingly. (Don't forget the tax credit is also going to limit their sales for the P&T customers.)

My $0.02/_: I'm 51% sure there are smarter people than me @ LCID and they are working out all these scenarios. Cost vs Revenue; Upcoming bill implications; Competition. Underwhelming tech in their current cars; etc ...

One thing I'm 100% I'm sure of: Peter Rawlinson did *not* start/join this company to fail. Nor did folks like Derek, Eric, others from 2018 or earlier. They have a lot more at $take (professionally, $ wise, etc) than my piddly $150K (compared to their $$$). They will do everything humanly possible to make sure LCID succeeds.
 
Posting this as a FYI. Don't flame me. This is a FYI.

If you have seen it & disagree, move on OR post why you disagree in a professional manner. Don't bash just because this is a public forum and you can be negative, We have enough of that. Please be constructive.

For the others, who are financially challenged like me, these two videos got thru' my morning coffee. IMO, buying this car is pseudo investing into the company, whether it is ~$90K for a Pure or ~$180K for a Dream. Do your own due diligence (personal wellbeing, $ risk you can endure, reading the market condition tea leaves, etc.). YMMV, literally.

The two videos summarize LCID. I viewed a bunch & these two caught my eye and thought I would share,. And if it helps one member, positively, in this group, I'm good.

My take, if you care about why I posted it:
- I personally still believe in LCID with ALL of their setbacks so far & with what may look to a very un-realistic BS heading into 2023
- Is LCID over optimistic? Maybe. Time will tell.
- TSLA did not produce profits till several years back & their first MS was released almost 11 years back.
- RVN, I think & IMHO, is hurting more than LCID. Yes they are producing cars, but they are also not $uper $trong. (I have not looked thru' their financials before posting this.)
- FSKR is now starting to offer non-refundable deposits to lock in a 'maybe' the EV credit. (Again, I don't know their exact reservation count. I heard it it/was >40K
- There are/will be TSLA fan-bois touting why LCID will fail. (But conveniently forget what was happening 10+ years back @ TSLA. Or their FSD BS. Or the Cybertruck).
-- Side note: Back 2011/12 I put & withdrew my $1K TSLA MS deposit, since the cost/mile (it was about 250 miles back then if I remember right) did not add up. Put that deposit into TSLA, withdrew it about 7+ years and funded the MS purchase and more. I was a Musk fan-boi, but got jaded with his over promises (FSD being the biggest one) and his actions ("I'm above the law" attitude), TSLA's closed eco-system, etc ...

For the trolls & naysayers: Yes, I / we hear you. We can read. Understand. E'LUCID'ate fundamentals, etc. LOUD & CLEAR. Thank you for your service. Please don't crowd the thread.

Cheers & happy "Monday Blues".
Thanks for sharing these.
 
I don’t think the Saudi’s will be so quick to pull out. Keep in mind, they were almost ready to do a deal with Tesla until Elon couldn’t keep his mouth shut with “going private” and then it all fell apart.

If the PIF was eying off Tesla then they knew how long it took Tesla to turn a profit. I don’t think they’d be stupid to think that Lucid is going to turn a profit in 2 to 3 years so for now I think Lucid is lucky enough to have a cash cushion.

With a 62% stake I’d say they’re in it for the long haul BUT it also puts Lucid in a precarious position. If the PIF is hands off then great but with that high a stake in a company they could also be pulling a lot of strings.

I also think Lucid isn’t sharing the full story. The Model X peaked at 27,250 in 2018 and Model S had its highest at 25,745 in 2018 also. Lucid still needs to build its brand and it took Tesla 7 years to achieve 53,000 Model S/X sales in a year. Why on earth is Lucid hell bent on building a factory ASAP to build 90,000+ cars a year and also breaking ground on yet another plant in Saudi Arabia. Everyone can argue “because of Gravity” but the size of the plants make no sense for a car company so early into establishing its brand. UNLESS a deal has been struck with someone to build cars that’s still confidential or they’ve got a mass market car being announced sooner rather than later that will dramatically increase production needs.

All speculation but I’ve always been skeptical of Lucid’s growth plan based on the price point and 2 models.
 
I don’t think the Saudi’s will be so quick to pull out. Keep in mind, they were almost ready to do a deal with Tesla until Elon couldn’t keep his mouth shut with “going private” and then it all fell apart.

If the PIF was eying off Tesla then they knew how long it took Tesla to turn a profit. I don’t think they’d be stupid to think that Lucid is going to turn a profit in 2 to 3 years so for now I think Lucid is lucky enough to have a cash cushion.

With a 62% stake I’d say they’re in it for the long haul BUT it also puts Lucid in a precarious position. If the PIF is hands off then great but with that high a stake in a company they could also be pulling a lot of strings.

I also think Lucid isn’t sharing the full story. The Model X peaked at 27,250 in 2018 and Model S had its highest at 25,745 in 2018 also. Lucid still needs to build its brand and it took Tesla 7 years to achieve 53,000 Model S/X sales in a year. Why on earth is Lucid hell bent on building a factory ASAP to build 90,000+ cars a year and also breaking ground on yet another plant in Saudi Arabia. Everyone can argue “because of Gravity” but the size of the plants make no sense for a car company so early into establishing its brand. UNLESS a deal has been struck with someone to build cars that’s still confidential or they’ve got a mass market car being announced sooner rather than later that will dramatically increase production needs.

All speculation but I’ve always been skeptical of Lucid’s growth plan based on the price point and 2 models.
I couldn’t agree more. Either they have something big cooking or they are running the company like Thelma and Louise. I’m convinced it’s the former. Peter also seems to have little concern for the short term and was seemingly unphased by the big quarterly miss, as if he already knows how the story ends. That, or he is a con artist with a charming accent. Lol
 
Posting this as a FYI. Don't flame me. This is a FYI.

If you have seen it & disagree, move on OR post why you disagree in a professional manner. Don't bash just because this is a public forum and you can be negative, We have enough of that. Please be constructive.

For the others, who are financially challenged like me, these two videos got thru' my morning coffee. IMO, buying this car is pseudo investing into the company, whether it is ~$90K for a Pure or ~$180K for a Dream. Do your own due diligence (personal wellbeing, $ risk you can endure, reading the market condition tea leaves, etc.). YMMV, literally.

The two videos summarize LCID. I viewed a bunch & these two caught my eye and thought I would share,. And if it helps one member, positively, in this group, I'm good.

My take, if you care about why I posted it:
- I personally still believe in LCID with ALL of their setbacks so far & with what may look to a very un-realistic BS heading into 2023
- Is LCID over optimistic? Maybe. Time will tell.
- TSLA did not produce profits till several years back & their first MS was released almost 11 years back.
- RVN, I think & IMHO, is hurting more than LCID. Yes they are producing cars, but they are also not $uper $trong. (I have not looked thru' their financials before posting this.)
- FSKR is now starting to offer non-refundable deposits to lock in a 'maybe' the EV credit. (Again, I don't know their exact reservation count. I heard it it/was >40K
- There are/will be TSLA fan-bois touting why LCID will fail. (But conveniently forget what was happening 10+ years back @ TSLA. Or their FSD BS. Or the Cybertruck).
-- Side note: Back 2011/12 I put & withdrew my $1K TSLA MS deposit, since the cost/mile (it was about 250 miles back then if I remember right) did not add up. Put that deposit into TSLA, withdrew it about 7+ years and funded the MS purchase and more. I was a Musk fan-boi, but got jaded with his over promises (FSD being the biggest one) and his actions ("I'm above the law" attitude), TSLA's closed eco-system, etc ...

For the trolls & naysayers: Yes, I / we hear you. We can read. Understand. E'LUCID'ate fundamentals, etc. LOUD & CLEAR. Thank you for your service. Please don't crowd the thread.

Cheers & happy "Monday Blues".
If it wasn’t for PIF’s significant investment, I would not have touched this stock. Startup car companies, even with great technology and good management teams , are just way too risky. It is one thing to design and engineer a great item and an entirely different beast to build it at a profit. The garbage that Lucid is going through trying to build their remarkable car is not unexpected. They are just doing too many things, too quickly, to do them all efficently. Plus, they are trying to do all of this stuff in a very strange and unusual time. The pandemic has knocked the world, let alone the US, sideways as we all try to figure out how to get things back to “normal”. The Inflation Reduction Act, just passed by the Senate, sends the auto and automotive support industries for another spin as they try to figure out how to move critical supply chain industries back into the US or trading partners domains. This will take years to achieve but, all in all, it should be a good thing as it should lead to a more stable US marketplace, even though the result will be a significant jump in prices (just compare Chinese labor costs to US labor cost ... even with tariffs added). Pray for increase use of robatics and AI. Plus, due to lower immigration numbers, we have and will have for the near and moderate future a labor shortage (read that as higher wages chase after restricted labor) at least until robotics and AI really ramp up.

I believe the Saudi’s are for real and the PR stuff they have put out regarding how Lucid and the plant they are currently building in Saudi Arabia is part of the Saudi’s long term “green” plan. They are ruthless when it comes to life in general and especially when it comes to making money. Their culture is so different than ours. Notice that they are investing in and currently supporting Russia. They see an opportunity to make money and they are going for it. I believe they anticipated the problems Lucid is going through but have invested in the company because of its remarkable technology which (as demonstrated by the remarkable miles/kw it achieves) nobody can touch right now. For these reasons, I have a confirmed order for the GT and have hopped on the coattails of PIF and have during the last few months bought a fair share of Lucid stock (average price of $18.27) and have tucked it into my long term investment portfolio.
 
I don’t think the Saudi’s will be so quick to pull out. Keep in mind, they were almost ready to do a deal with Tesla until Elon couldn’t keep his mouth shut with “going private” and then it all fell apart.
interesting, didn't know the discussions actually went that far and seriously. i thought it was preliminary "deal exploration" by elon, and he just ran his mouth soon after. didn't even know they got far to entertain and negotiate on the offer.

at this point, it's hard to tell which side of the double edged sword the PIF falls on. we can only hope they are one that's willing to be patient and extend numerus cash injections for lucid in the future.

and about the 2nd factory in AZ. are they actually breaking ground? or did they just buy the land, and announce it as "where we will expanding for the future, such as our 2nd plant." if it's the latter, i think that's fine right? it's just buying extra open land around your factory, to kind secure yourself. last thing you want is to have a rival come in and buy up the cheap land around you and box you in.
 
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I also think Lucid isn’t sharing the full story. The Model X peaked at 27,250 in 2018 and Model S had its highest at 25,745 in 2018 also. Lucid still needs to build its brand and it took Tesla 7 years to achieve 53,000 Model S/X sales in a year. Why on earth is Lucid hell bent on building a factory ASAP to build 90,000+ cars a year and also breaking ground on yet another plant in Saudi Arabia. Everyone can argue “because of Gravity” but the size of the plants make no sense for a car company so early into establishing its brand. UNLESS a deal has been struck with someone to build cars that’s still confidential or they’ve got a mass market car being announced sooner rather than later that will dramatically increase production needs.
You are citing US only sales figures while Lucid is opening studios in Europe and Middle East. Model S sales worldwide in 2016 was supposedly over 50K. While the 90K output is often quoted, that's running 3 shifts with the building full of robots and equipment. Lucid doesn't need to run full tilt - they can buy enough equipment to churn out 30K and add equipment/shifts as demand warrants. But it doesn't make sense to build a small factory then need to add on to it. Until they can move some of the assembly out to the new building, they will continue to be constrained in the paint shop and continue to frustrate us by having to batch a single color. I see expansion of the paint shop as an important next step.

I like the optimism of maybe something brewing in someone outsourcing to Lucid - that would be great. The mass market midsize vehicles that are supposed to be after Gravity aren't until "late mid decade". Model 3/Y sales are close to 10X Model S/X so hopefully, Lucid will need all that space when those models are introduced.
 
Could the factories be for other than car production (or at least in addition to cars)? More in-house logistics? Batteries and other components?
 
Could the factories be for other than car production (or at least in addition to cars)? More in-house logistics? Batteries and other components?
lucid talks about vertical integration. i have no idea how they currently source and supply their parts. maybe they want to go the way of tesla and start manufacturing parts in house?
 
Could the factories be for other than car production (or at least in addition to cars)? More in-house logistics? Batteries and other components?
I think that was covered on the earnings call. New building is supposed to house an in-house logistics center to hold more inventory. One of the adjustments manufacturers are having to make is ordering more than you normally need so you don't have to worry about running out when deliveries are delayed. They are also moving the battery and motor facility currently in leased space to the new building.
 
I don’t think the Saudi’s will be so quick to pull out. Keep in mind, they were almost ready to do a deal with Tesla until Elon couldn’t keep his mouth shut with “going private” and then it all fell apart.

If the PIF was eying off Tesla then they knew how long it took Tesla to turn a profit. I don’t think they’d be stupid to think that Lucid is going to turn a profit in 2 to 3 years so for now I think Lucid is lucky enough to have a cash cushion.

With a 62% stake I’d say they’re in it for the long haul BUT it also puts Lucid in a precarious position. If the PIF is hands off then great but with that high a stake in a company they could also be pulling a lot of strings.

I also think Lucid isn’t sharing the full story. The Model X peaked at 27,250 in 2018 and Model S had its highest at 25,745 in 2018 also. Lucid still needs to build its brand and it took Tesla 7 years to achieve 53,000 Model S/X sales in a year. Why on earth is Lucid hell bent on building a factory ASAP to build 90,000+ cars a year and also breaking ground on yet another plant in Saudi Arabia. Everyone can argue “because of Gravity” but the size of the plants make no sense for a car company so early into establishing its brand. UNLESS a deal has been struck with someone to build cars that’s still confidential or they’ve got a mass market car being announced sooner rather than later that will dramatically increase production needs.

All speculation but I’ve always been skeptical of Lucid’s growth plan based on the price point and 2 models.
Total internet speculation, but the crazy expansion would make a lot more sense if this is true.

 
- Saudi royal family network: 1,400B+
- PIF has 600B+ fund and have positive cash flow
- PIF owns significant holdings in Starbucks, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway, Disney, Live Nation, Carnival Cruise, Qualcomm, Twitter, Uber and even Tesla.
- PIF owns 62% of LCID
- LCID current valuation is 32B.
- Saudi believe America way of life is their windfall on top of their oil needs.
- Saudi is in process of infrastructure transformation of renewable initiatives led by their Crown Prince into next 2 decades who chose LCID to lead the way than TSLA and have ancillary industries build around LCID AMP-2.
- Saudi and megalomania Elon didnot meshed in the end to take TSLA private.
- LCID will always have option to print more shares to PIF to dilute existing shareholders for capital injection.
- Bank of America will stay in synergy with LCID in financing/leasing leverage.
- Saudi can always take LCID private with easy super majority votes.


My take, LCID having minority shares to retail investors is good for their publicity in equity market exposure, and with minority shares float, short interest can be easily be controlled. People who has real wealth is usually patient and does things for long term and yet act low key; people who plays leverage for quick wealth gain are generally flamboyant and prone to produce news for affirmation. I am not implying Elon is all Ponzi scheme guy, in fact, he is great risk taker and admirable serial entrepreneur who will always flirt with bankruptcy for over-leverage. Like Charles Munger and Warren Buffett stated, Elon is walking on edge, not safe, a totally dangerous believer in non-rational exuberance.
 
FWIW.... Another EV, another struggle....


I really don't want to be an EV C level executive in current conditions,.

I guess this is hos the morning meetings go. What should we address today?
1.cash flow projections
2.supply chain
3.government subsidies and incentives? Effect on future customers
4.post sales service
5. Talent?
6. Credit limit?
7. Economic climate
8. Revise our future client demographic?
... And more.

I really don't envy these guys. Ouch.
 
FWIW.... Another EV, another struggle....


I really don't want to be an EV C level executive in current conditions,.

I guess this is hos the morning meetings go. What should we address today?
1.cash flow projections
2.supply chain
3.government subsidies and incentives? Effect on future customers
4.post sales service
5. Talent?
6. Credit limit?
7. Economic climate
8. Revise our future client demographic?
... And more.

I really don't envy these guys. Ouch.
I traded this stock last year. There are almost no parallels with Lucid. First it starts with a controversial design and from what I understand, they are focusing on leasing cars, not selling. Peter may have short comings, but their CEO is really a piece of work. They are completely under capitalized and it feels like they are winging it, without a vision.
 
Just going to throw this out there to all those who believe Lucid has no idea what they are doing or are in financial trouble. Just because you may have bought high and sold low, doesn't mean Lucid is doing poorly. When in doubt, zoom out.

Lucid - Up 74% since IPO
Rivian - Down 71% since IPO
Tesla - Down 3% since Lucid IPO, down 20% since Rivian IPO

I guess the mega investors need to listen to the forum..
 
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