While the Factory Shows No Production Out In The Parking Lot….

Since we have seen almost no activity out in the the factory parking lot for over six weeks now I was wondering what might be going on inside.

While the problem areas are being fixed are other areas still building things like dash board sub assemblies, battery paks, motors or painting doors, hoods, frames to build up stock for the next run of Airs? I know nothing about modern auto production other than what I have seen on films and even wonder if they have the room to stockpile parts or is the system set up to make parts only as they go.

Let me pile on here. I want to indulge in a bit of a moan anyway.

Scrolling through the Air GT tracker, it’s discouraging to see how few on the tracker have been able to list their cars as “Delivered“, in May and June.

It seems the recall and increased PDI really caused a major month-long bottle neck.

If the Reddit post was right, there was also another supply-chain-quality-issue week-long stoppage in May, as well as a factory walk out on May 30th.

Lucid's new VP of Quality has his hands very full. Looks like between him and the VP of manufacturing, it's a shutdown, examine, and rebuild period.

MPawelek said:

Since we have seen almost no activity out in the the factory parking lot for over six weeks now I was wondering what might be going on inside.

While the problem areas are being fixed are other areas still building things like dash board sub assemblies, battery paks, motors or painting doors, hoods, frames to build up stock for the next run of Airs? I know nothing about modern auto production other than what I have seen on films and even wonder if they have the room to stockpile parts or is the system set up to make parts only as they go.

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For what it is worth, my DA at the Denver opening reception said that Lucid is hiring like mad to try to keep up with the deliveries. I do not believe we can assess the number of cars being delivered by looking at the covered cars in the staging area. They may be loading and delivering cars at all hours. If you look closely at the cars from day to day photos that are staged in the lot next to the "pending delivery lot", there are a lot of cars there and the cars are moving and even disappearing every day. Being the ever optimist, I would like to believe most, if not all of the cars that move each day are being moved to the "pending delivery lot" and then being shipped out. The one thing that raises questions about this theory is the slowness of the tracker list being updated. Thus, I think there may be a number of cars at the various service centers waiting their final inspection before customer delivery. But....who knows????

Mike's math.. if you plan to build 10,000 cars in the remaining six months you need 10 truckloads a day. I don't believe that it's happening or it's going to happen anytime soon.

There’s no way 10,000+ cars are being delivered. Watch another lawsuit by shareholders be filed because Lucid failed to disclose this sooner and revise the delivery numbers. This is just going to create more unnecessary noise for a company trying to get itself started which isn’t good.

MikeTz said:

Mike's math.. if you plan to build 10,000 cars in the remaining six months you need 10 truckloads a day. I don't believe that it's happening or it's going to happen anytime soon.

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I love it: Mike's Math! Very clever. I just checked your math and you are spot on. Whether they can do it or not, who knows? However, if the cars that are being moved are not being delivered, where are they going? Inside the plant can't hold them all. I think I will stick with my guess that they are being moved out to various service centers. Has any one visited their local service center lately. If so, could you share what you saw. I know I read a little while ago that there were 80 or so cars at one service center (Houston? my memory fails me) waiting for PDI inspections. Thanks again, Mike, you math wizard!

HC_79 said:

There’s no way 10,000+ cars are being delivered. Watch another lawsuit by shareholders be filed because Lucid failed to disclose this sooner and revise the delivery numbers. This is just going to create more unnecessary noise for a company trying to get itself started which isn’t good.

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Again, Lucid was very smart to say "produced" not delivered.

hydbob said:

Again, Lucid was very smart to say "produced" not delivered.

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I think at this rate they‘ll be lucky to get 5000 produced by year end

HC_79 said:

I think at this rate they‘ll be lucky to get 5000 produced by year end

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The key words there are "at this rate." Do you think the factory will shut down for an entire 6 weeks again? We'll see, but that's a ton of lost productivity that I'm guessing isn't in Lucid's plan.

Do you expect them to lower guidance again at the next ER? I can’t see how they wouldn’t unless they’ve built at least 4000-5000 cars by now.

steveairgt said:

Do you expect them to lower guidance again at the next ER? I can’t see how they wouldn’t unless they’ve built at least 4000-5000 cars by now.

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Not sure about what others think, but i believe they will hit their mark for the year. They have significantly ramped up from last month and I believe production will keep increasing as the third shift staffs up. Then again...let's hope they are keeping their labor happy.

Cars seem to be trickling out at a snails pace if at all. Pictures have shown cars in the lot missing parts so along with quality control issues it appears they’re still parts constrained also. The supply chain constraints aren’t going anywhere and with China potentially going into yet another lockdown I suspect things are only going to get worse. Lucid said in the last earnings call that they would meet the production target if everything went to plan with suppliers. The build up of cars at the plant tells me that something is up and not just QC issues.

mnewber1 said:

It seems the recall and increased PDI really caused a major month-long bottle neck.

If the Reddit post was right, there was also another supply-chain-quality-issue week-long stoppage in May, as well as a factory walk out on May 30th.

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DJL said:

Not sure about what others think, but i believe they will hit their mark for the year. They have significantly ramped up from last month and I believe production will keep increasing as the third shift staffs up. Then again...let's hope they are keeping their labor happy.

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What leads you to believe they have “significantly ramped up since last month?”

Ahhhh so much DOOM in this thread. I’m immune from it cuz I have my car and I do feel bad for those who don’t, but hey be happy that you’re gonna get a car that went through better QC than mine did, and will come with better software than mine did. I don’t have the bandwidth or knowledge to run a new car company so I’m just gonna leave it to Lucid to figure it out, and be comforted by the fact that they do genuinely seem to care about doing a good job, even if it pisses off investors (I’m an investor, just a realistic one, not an “I’m gonna sue cuz you didn’t make a miracle happen” investor) because they didn’t meet their guidance, just like zero other public automakers I know of will meet their production projections. This last year has sucked for automakers, I can’t even get a control arm and brake booster replaced for my wife’s Subaru until September, so my expectations for Lucid I dare say are pretty managed and realistic. Seriously think about that. @KySerenity just got a rear motor replaced for overheating in 1 week. A giant multinational Japanese automaker can’t replace a control arm or brake booster in a massively common car for months. Vertical integration cannot be undervalued.

Edit: overvalued, not under.

Here's today, a lot more cars in the lot + trailer loading cars up to take them away:

mnewber1 said:

Here's today, a lot more cars in the lot + trailer loading cars up to take them away:

View attachment 2912

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You guys are awesome to be tracking all of this! Certainly doesn't seem like there are a lot getting built per day. Lucid definitely needs to figure out the logistics of manufacturing their cars to scale. Elon said that it is the next hurdle for both Lucid and Rivian. There was also an article today that stated VW will be building more EV's than Tesla by 2024. I have no idea about the car manufacturing business, but it seems as if they should poach for talent.

MPawelek said:

What leads you to believe they have “significantly ramped up since last month?”

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How the individual cars are moving around the lots and then disappearing.

MPawelek said:

What leads you to believe they have “significantly ramped up since last month?”

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I have been looking at the cars very carefully and watching how they move and then disappear. I will try to produce a series of dated photos that demonstrate this. However, I no longer have the wonderful software I once had so it may take a while to put that together. But when I do, I will "quote" this post to keep this thread in place. Meanwhile, here is the a photo from Bear's Workshop taken today. A lot of cars wrapped and waiting to shop out. Yea!