What's new
By:

Target $0

likegadgets said:
Or instead of buying a few Lucid's, as it approaches $0, we may just but the company. I just hope they last until my lease ends
Click to expand...
I simply hope it continues until the car’s problems are resolved during my next service visit, which was arranged 45 days after my request.
 
sri said:
Looks like Lucid is targeting $0, i am at a point believing that boat already started sinking.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. Last year in Michigan a half million new cars were sold. Someone in Michigan has to go to Chicago to test drive a Lucid and there is no trade-in program nor any prominent advertising. Other manufacturers are catching up with range and fast charging. How can Lucid expect to sell their cars? I know they don’t want dealers but there are other ways to do it.

If a tree falls in the forest but no one is there, is there sound? If Lucid is building the best cars in the world but no one knows it, are they still the best cars in the world?
 
Jfam said:
Absolutely. Last year in Michigan a half million new cars were sold. Someone in Michigan has to go to Chicago to test drive a Lucid and there is no trade-in program nor any prominent advertising. Other manufacturers are catching up with range and fast charging. How can Lucid expect to sell their cars? I know they don’t want dealers but there are other ways to do it.

If a tree falls in the forest but no one is there, is there sound? If Lucid is building the best cars in the world but no one knows it, are they still the best cars in the world?
Click to expand...
They should partner with established service centers. Just like they are doing in Europe.
 
My father ordered it that way in 1977, (Ford Clubwagon, 8 seater, long wb, 300 IL6, MS, MT, no AC) only options were rubber floor coverings and AM radio, $5300 out the door. I drove it through 1995.
 
dbsb3233 said:
I talked myself into another 1000 shares today. Probably the last gasp chance. I figure it's probably 1 of 2 outcomes now: it's either heading to nothing (bankruptcy/buyout/private/etc), or they survive and go significantly higher. Just doesn't seem feasible for an automaker to flounder around this scant $1.3B market cap long-term. Rivian has a $19B market cap. Ford $48B.

Total loss is surely more likely at this point, but if it does survive in current form, 5x-10x seems likely (and that's still only half Rivian's market cap). It's like betting 10:1 odds on Super Bowl futures now. 🤑
Click to expand...
If you are Saudi PIF, what would you do? Let it go bankrupt- and waste the 9 billion you already invested or throw another 2 billion at it, let them get Cosmos out and see if company succeeds.

Going private won’t happen- security issues with robotaxis being a foreign company, no stock options to attract good talent, lack of access to US finances at favorable rates , loss of premium valuation being a US company and they have to find another 5 billion to buyout and support the company.

Best option is to continue to support till Cosmos gets ramped. They waited 8 years, what’s 1 year more? They know the future is EV and want EV manufacturing in Saudi. They need Lucid as well in addition to CEER to attract supply side manufacturers.

70% of employed at AMp-2 are Saudi nationals. They want jobs for their citizens.


It’s oversold due to panic from a couple of analysts who are more than 50% wrong.

I bought 2000 shares today, and will by more if it falls further.
 
Last edited:
gaskiller said:
If you are Saudi PIF, what would you do? Let it go bankrupt- and waste the 9 billion you already invested or throw another 2 billion at it, let them get Cosmos out and see if company succeeds.

Going private won’t happen- security issues with robotaxis being a foreign company, no stock options to attract good talent, lack of access to US finances at favorable rates , loss of premium valuation being a US company and they have to find another 5 billion to buyout and support the company.

Best option is to continue to support till Cosmos gets ramped. They waited 8 years, what’s 1 year more? They know the future is EV and want EV manufacturing in Saudi. They need Lucid as well in addition to CEER to attract supply side manufacturers.

It’s oversold due to panic from a couple of analysts who are more than 50% wrong.
Click to expand...
I continue to honor the prior commitment for total line of credit (they just drew down another $400M of it last week and have $400M remaining of that commitment), while monitoring progress and reassessing before deciding whether to commit to even more credit. Hopefully they will, but likely only if they feel like there's light at the end of the tunnel. Even though they want Lucid to succeed, and want a Saudi auto industry, that doesn't mean Lucid is sure to succeed. There's always a breaking point somewhere if a business just keeps sinking and burning cash. The question was always whether Lucid can turn the corner before getting there. The perception of that happening appears to be shrinking with each passing month (as reflected in the stock price), but there's still a chance. I wouldn't say a great chance, but a chance.
 
dbsb3233 said:
I continue to honor the prior commitment for total line of credit (they just drew down another $400M of it last week and have $400M remaining of that commitment), while monitoring progress and reassessing before deciding whether to commit to even more credit. Hopefully they will, but likely only if they feel like there's light at the end of the tunnel. Even though they want Lucid to succeed, and want a Saudi auto industry, that doesn't mean Lucid is sure to succeed. There's always a breaking point somewhere if a business just keeps sinking and burning cash. The question was always whether Lucid can turn the corner before getting there. The perception of that happening appears to be shrinking with each passing month (as reflected in the stock price), but there's still a chance. I wouldn't say a great chance, but a chance.
Click to expand...
The PIF’s objectives can be met with or without Lucid. The Saudi’s objective of building a state of the art manufacturing facility has been met. They’ve also acquired the knowledge of how to engineer and build cars. Lucid was merely the gateway to acquire that expertise. If they decide that Lucid is not viable they can always repurpose AMP-2 and try again.
 
Northpointe said:
The PIF’s objectives can be met with or without Lucid. The Saudi’s objective of building a state of the art manufacturing facility has been met. They’ve also acquired the knowledge of how to engineer and build cars. Lucid was merely the gateway to acquire that expertise. If they decide that Lucid is not viable they can always repurpose AMP-2 and try again.
Click to expand...
They need Lucid to attract supplier base to the region. They can’t justify that with just CEER. Also, CEER is just geared towards the GCC and African continent. It’s not a worldwide brand. Lucid is for the West. Auto industry is not having just one manufacturer.

Try again won’t happen…imagine building another company from scratch……
 
gaskiller said:
They need Lucid to attract supplier base to the region. They can’t justify that with just CEER. Also, CEER is just geared towards the GCC and African continent. It’s not a worldwide brand. Lucid is for the West. Auto industry is not having just one manufacturer.

Try again won’t happen…imagine building another company from scratch……
Click to expand...
They need a car that can be sold at volume to build a supplier base. Suppliers are brand agnostic, they simply want someone to sell to and get paid. If the volume is there the end market does not matter. The Chinese EV makers are doing quite well ignoring the US market. If the KSA believes that the Lucid brand is tarnished or can’t be scaled they will simply pivot. It would not be the first or last time they’ve reconsidered an investment. If Lucid goes bust the Saudi’s will still hold hard assets. They can find another manufacturing partner(s). It’s why your investment risk is fundamentally different than theirs.
 
Northpointe said:
They need a car that can be sold at volume to build a supplier base. Suppliers are brand agnostic, they simply want someone to sell to and get paid. If the volume is there the end market does not matter. The Chinese EV makers are doing quite well ignoring the US market. If the KSA believes that the Lucid brand is tarnished or can’t be scaled they will simply pivot. It would not be the first or last time they’ve reconsidered an investment. If Lucid goes bust the Saudi’s will still hold hard assets. They can find another manufacturing partner(s). It’s why your investment risk is fundamentally different than theirs.
Click to expand...
Midsize volume…..that is being built in KSA. Volume not only comes from just Lucid, CEER will contribute as well. Saudi needs both companies…..and they will do their best to make them viable. Future is EV, this is their only opportunity or they miss the boat.

“Ultimately, for Saudi Arabia, the $2 billion required to bridge Lucid to its next-generation mass-market vehicles is viewed not as a standard venture capital gamble, but as a mandatory infrastructure cost for building a post-oil economy.”
 
gaskiller said:
If you are Saudi PIF, what would you do? Let it go bankrupt- and waste the 9 billion you already invested or throw another 2 billion at it, let them get Cosmos out and see if company succeeds.

Going private won’t happen- security issues with robotaxis being a foreign company, no stock options to attract good talent, lack of access to US finances at favorable rates , loss of premium valuation being a US company and they have to find another 5 billion to buyout and support the company.

Best option is to continue to support till Cosmos gets ramped. They waited 8 years, what’s 1 year more? They know the future is EV and want EV manufacturing in Saudi. They need Lucid as well in addition to CEER to attract supply side manufacturers.

70% of employed at AMp-2 are Saudi nationals. They want jobs for their citizens.


It’s oversold due to panic from a couple of analysts who are more than 50% wrong.

I bought 2000 shares today, and will by more if it falls further.
Click to expand...
Why not just merge it into a larger industrial conglomerate with CEER?
 
Northpointe said:
The PIF’s objectives can be met with or without Lucid. The Saudi’s objective of building a state of the art manufacturing facility has been met. They’ve also acquired the knowledge of how to engineer and build cars. Lucid was merely the gateway to acquire that expertise. If they decide that Lucid is not viable they can always repurpose AMP-2 and try again.
Click to expand...
If they have acquired their expertise from Lucid, they are cooked
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top