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Lucid's Future Amidst The Middle East Conflict

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BS8899

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The Middle East conflict is spread to the Red Sea region. I wonder how it might affect Lucid's SA assembly plant/transport of finished vehicles out of the region.

Does Lucid AZ plant have the ability to build the Cosmos at some volume?

If the conflict drags on for months and hampers Lucid's factory operation and transport of finished vehicles to market, it could have serious financial implications to Lucid.
 
Could have serious financial implications for everyone. But yes. I do think Lucid is somewhat more vulnerable than others in this situation.

Moderator’s note: this topic is fine so long as we’re talking about Lucid.

Keep the guidelines in mind, please. No politics. No attacks against your fellow posters.
 
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Not talking about the rest of the problems associated with our …
At any rate the oil disruption and fuel costs must impact the cosmos from both directions
High fuel costs equals more people looking at ev’s
A lower cost high quality vehicle could do well
I don’t foresee Lucid making a $30k car but price wise a 40-50k car could do very well
IMHO
 
They still can ship cars through Suez Canal / Eygpt / Mediterranean Sea

If Strait of Hormuz is back open then they could ship from there as well
 
I thought plant was on the Red Sea, if so Hormuz would mean transporting across the peninsula. Not only do vehicles have to be transported out but components need to be shipped in. A sticky situation all round.
 
Pragmatic said:
I thought plant was on the Red Sea, if so Hormuz would mean transporting across the peninsula. Not only do vehicles have to be transported out but components need to be shipped in. A sticky situation all round.
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Exactly!
 
Pragmatic said:
I thought plant was on the Red Sea, if so Hormuz would mean transporting across the peninsula. Not only do vehicles have to be transported out but components need to be shipped in. A sticky situation all round.
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Components from Asia will be delayed. Shipping to Europe and US won’t be affected. Makes you think if this was another reason to delay Cosmos. At least they have time to have a backup plan.
 
gaskiller said:
Components from Asia will be delayed. Shipping to Europe and US won’t be affected. Makes you think if this was another reason to delay Cosmos. At least they have time to have a backup plan.
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Does Lucid have a backup plan? I presume they can produce Cosmos at Casa Grande. But what is the lead time? Additional costs?
 
BS8899 said:
Does Lucid have a backup plan? I presume they can produce Cosmos at Casa Grande. But what is the lead time? Additional costs?
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I suspect that’s not a viable option in the short term. And moving production out of the KSA would run counter to the PIF’s investment thesis and Saudi Vision 2030.
 
Northpointe said:
I suspect that’s not a viable option in the short term. And moving production out of the KSA would run counter to the PIF’s investment thesis and Saudi Vision 2030.
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Perhaps, but if Cosmos is delayed by a year, it will likely be the end of Lucid.
 
BS8899 said:
Perhaps, but if Cosmos is delayed by a year, it will likely be the end of Lucid.
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Maybe. But for the KSA they will have accomplished their goal of building a modern auto manufacturing facility while developing the knowledge of how to design, engineer, and produce cars. They can accomplish their long term objectives with or without Lucid.
 
Not sure why so many people who have oil stocks are on this forum. All this confusion is to gain control of oil. F oil, I’ll drive my ev and if we go madmax I’ll pull out my solar panels and take a vacation while I charge my batteries. Try that in your ICE vehicle
Yes they made mistakes and I do see them working to fix them and I believe they are applying that learning to the new factory and the car being built there. Assuming no one drops a rocket on the plant
 
A lot can happen in a year.

Lucid is likely looking at the current situation and preparing for whatever might come. But the fact that production isn't even going to start until later than planned is probably a good thing at this point. They will have time to react.

KSA wants Lucid to make cars for KSA. So Cosmos can ship locally and do well over there, regardless. Minus whatever parts issues they might have.

Getting the cars to the US could require a change in plans. I do believe the factory in Arizona is more than capable of producing way more than the Gravity / Air numbers that are coming out of there now.

The real question mark is Europe and Asia. Cosmos could do very well in Europe in particular, I would think.

Anyway, I'm no expert in any of this. But I figure they have time to figure some things out, given we're still pretty far from actual manufacturing of this car.
 
BS8899 said:
Does Lucid have a backup plan? I presume they can produce Cosmos at Casa Grande. But what is the lead time? Additional costs?
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Backup meaning getting supply chain sorted out. They can ship around the tip of Africa and through the Suez Canal….just takes longer. They don’t have to use Bab Al-Mandab Strait. For larger oil tankers, it’s an issue as they can’t pass through the Suez. The smaller ones can. Not the end of the world for Saudi.
 
socktucker said:
KSA’s desire to deal with the somewhat fickle USA might become an issue too.
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Problem is the US is still one of the 3 largest car markets in the world. Lucid can't survive selling only to KSA customers. The annual 4k unit commitment for Midsize by the KSA through 2032 is basically a rounding error to a profitable car manufacturer. That's basically half of Lucid's already poor sales figures.

China is going to be hard for foreign car makers in the near and medium term future. All those Chinese-domestic EV brands are going to consolidate and leave whoever is left standing in a much stronger position. The EU's EV market is already open to Chinese imports and letting the big 3 German brands fail would be a disaster for their economy so those companies will be helped as much as possible which Lucid won't get in that market. There is also a clear demand by EU customers for EU built EVs as both the iX3 and EX60 have exceeded initial sales projections.

The US EV market was (before tariffs) probably the easiest to break into but those of us living here understand the trends that have already stunted EV growth. Yet, it's still the best market for Lucid to sell to because the other two largest markets are even harder.

In any case, Cosmos/Midsize can, and is going to, be built at AMP-1 (if Lucid survives). They've already expanded the footprint of the plant. If needed, they could discontinue Air and possibly Gravity and retrofit those lines to make whatever Midsize model that's selling well. If I were Lucid, I'd love to be forced to make that decision. That would mean Midsize demand is actually meaningful.
 
Pragmatic said:
I thought plant was on the Red Sea, if so Hormuz would mean transporting across the peninsula. Not only do vehicles have to be transported out but components need to be shipped in. A sticky situation all round.
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Yes you are right

It is already happening now, logistics have become nightmare

However this is a problem for shipping companies to solve

Companies are dropping shipments at edge of UAE I think in Fujairah port then shipping goods by land
 
BS8899 said:
Perhaps, but if Cosmos is delayed by a year, it will likely be the end of Lucid.
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Not really

In fact it is the opposite

PIF is planing to double down in manufacturing and distribution as per their latest reports
 
Btw CEER will reveal it is new car in a week

I am not sure why lucid is not part of this. I was hoping they could supply at least the motors

They are literally neighbours

The plants are next to each other wall to wall 🤣

CEER | Saudi Arabia's First Automotive Brand

Discover CEER, Saudi Arabia’s pioneering EV brand, shaping the future of sustainable mobility and driving Vision 2030 forward.
ceermotors.com ceermotors.com
 
erigion said:
Problem is the US is still one of the 3 largest car markets in the world. Lucid can't survive selling only to KSA customers. The annual 4k unit commitment for Midsize by the KSA through 2032 is basically a rounding error to a profitable car manufacturer. That's basically half of Lucid's already poor sales figures.

China is going to be hard for foreign car makers in the near and medium term future. All those Chinese-domestic EV brands are going to consolidate and leave whoever is left standing in a much stronger position. The EU's EV market is already open to Chinese imports and letting the big 3 German brands fail would be a disaster for their economy so those companies will be helped as much as possible which Lucid won't get in that market. There is also a clear demand by EU customers for EU built EVs as both the iX3 and EX60 have exceeded initial sales projections.

The US EV market was (before tariffs) probably the easiest to break into but those of us living here understand the trends that have already stunted EV growth. Yet, it's still the best market for Lucid to sell to because the other two largest markets are even harder.

In any case, Cosmos/Midsize can, and is going to, be built at AMP-1 (if Lucid survives). They've already expanded the footprint of the plant. If needed, they could discontinue Air and possibly Gravity and retrofit those lines to make whatever Midsize model that's selling well. If I were Lucid, I'd love to be forced to make that decision. That would mean Midsize demand is actually meaningful.
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Agree with your points.

Until recently, the auto-pac between US and Canada blocked the entry of Chinese EVs to the North American market. That's changing!.

I was just in Toronto. No Chinese EV showrooms yet, but they are coming soon. With time, the Chinese EV manufacturers will establish the necessary infrastructure in North America to be competitive. The North American EV landscape will change significantly in the coming decade!
 
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