you'd still need the battery conditioning to respond to the Google maps when navigating to a charger as well
Is full self driving being developed for Gravity?
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you'd still need the battery conditioning to respond to the Google maps when navigating to a charger as well
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I might well pay that much if there was actually autonomous driving. But I definitely won't for a system that requires me to alertly supervise it and intervene if it tries to kill me. I think consumer vehicles will eventually offer real autonomous driving, but it appears we're still a few years away from that.
So I finally went ahead and test drove a Model Y (my first time driving a Tesla). The interior was nicer than I was expecting and the FSD was very good. Ride was a little bumpy, but it's a $50k car so that's forgiveable. Steering feel was also not great, but again, $50k car.
FSD is kind of boring UNLESS you need it. There was a moment where I had to answer an email while driving and, in that case, it was super helpful. I can also see it being very helpful when tired. However, considering you're still responsible for driving, I don't really see the appeal over a system that does highway driving only. It was cool to play around with for the first 10 minutes, but eventually I just wanted to drive myself.
I'm looking forward to true consumer L4.
Edit: To be clear, when I say FSD is boring, I mean it's boring to just sit there and watch the car drive itself. I've already been in Waymos so there was no novelty factor to seeing a car drive itself. Unless I can actually do other things while driving, I don't really see the point in most cases.
FSD is kind of boring UNLESS you need it. There was a moment where I had to answer an email while driving and, in that case, it was super helpful. I can also see it being very helpful when tired. However, considering you're still responsible for driving, I don't really see the appeal over a system that does highway driving only. It was cool to play around with for the first 10 minutes, but eventually I just wanted to drive myself.
I'm looking forward to true consumer L4.
Edit: To be clear, when I say FSD is boring, I mean it's boring to just sit there and watch the car drive itself. I've already been in Waymos so there was no novelty factor to seeing a car drive itself. Unless I can actually do other things while driving, I don't really see the point in most cases.
If you're answering emails, you aren't supervising FSD and are operating your vehicle in an unsafe manner. Until FSD is legally permitted unsupervised, pull the f*ck over and answer your email stopped in a safe place.
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Technically, and in reality practically, it is not capable of letting you answer an email while it is driving. It's very good, but the trust level is not 100% yet. I'm not talking "the disclaimer tells you not to do that" levels of "not ready". I mean it can still try to side swipe a car or a parking meter just often enough that you probably shouldn't answer an email even though it "feels" like you should. If you're lucky, the risk is just body damage. If you aren't then the risk is "somebody" damage.
I think Tesla has reached the "paradox of automation" level of reliability. It's the level where humans over-relax their "oversight training wheels" but the job isn't done yet. The intuitive ability to trust the automation doesn't match the reality of it.
The reality is that this is how a lot of people have been using Tesla FSD for a few years now. Older folks who probably should not have keys, people out drinking, dude sleeping on the way in to work, soccer mom's watching videos on their phones, etc... If you see a recent Tesla on the road, the odds are high the driver is not driving nor paying attention.
Actually I don't think that's true. Most Tesla buyers haven't bought FSD (particularly when it was $10K up front). Now that there is just a monthly payment of $100 this may be more palatable to folks, the original payment was over 8 years of the current payments and was all up front so a bit intimidating to spring for. According to this reddit chat well less than 15% of tesla's have FSD.
Tesla FSD take rate is growing very fast. To your point, it is probably not in many of the earlier cars, but it is far more common in the HW 4 cars and HW3 cars thanks to FSD "lite" and the pivot to $100 subscription. Folks are quick to hit on that take rate you cited, but they ignore that it is growing at over 50%.
This is not meant to be a hasty generalization fallacy, but everyone I know (first-hand and close second-had) with a Tesla has FSD, except 2 people. One has an old Model 3 that won't support the latest models, and the other just wouldn't use it. And of those, two should not have keys, one watches YouTube, I know that two of them frequently use the cars while drinking, and one guy puts on polarized glasses and sleeps on the way to work. I call it out to them, but the reality is, that is how people are using FSD. (These people are in all different walks of life and cultures.)
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My gravity has the DreamDrivePro option, what’s your experience and opinion about using the park and de- parking feature after the latest software update? ( both parking in a lot and also in a home garage)
Honestly I have been too apprehensive to try it!
Honestly I have been too apprehensive to try it!
This is basically what Google found when they first started testing Autopilot-like features back in 2013(!) which spurred Waymo's direct jump to unsupervised capabilities.
And it's pretty clear that many of the incidents involving FSD should have been prevented by the driver who is still supposed to be supervising the car but they weren't doing it because their trust in the technology was too high for the actual capabilities.
Gotta say I'm in the other camp. I don't know anyone (directly, I'm not counting folks on this board) who has FSD. Now much of this is probably when the car was purchased and the cost for FSD was a minimum of $10K not the more recent subscription model. I could definitely see uptake being much higher (and if you believe the reddit link I posted above it is in Elon's personal best interest for FSD uptake to be much higher as the Reddit chat says one of the goals for his massive bonus is 10 million FSD users and at 1.1 million out of 8.5 million vehicles sold he wasn't getting there very fast (at that rate Tesla would have to sell about 75M vehicle which isn't happening within the time frame of Elon's bonus requirements.
Yeah, a lot of it probably depends on the age of the car. If you dig through the historical data, Tesla FSD take rate was around 7% in 2022. Then they released HW4 and lowered the price, and take rate increased to around 8% in 2023. In 2024 they lowered the price again and then pivoted to subscription. Take rate grew steadily to around 12% by the end of 2025. Then it got another substantial jump in 2026, as you noted.
The key thing to look at is take rate as a percent of recent sales. If you consider that cars older than 2023 are probably less likely to add it after purchase, then take rate on recent car sales is probably on the order of 25% to 30%. So, that is why the overall is growing so rapidly, as new car sales with higher take rates dilute the millions of legacy cars that will never have FSD.
Yeah, I don’t see Tesla acquiring 10M FSD subscribers any time soon either. They have 1.48M now. So they need another 8.5M. If they are getting a 30% take rate on new sales, that is another 28M in car sales. They are only selling around 2M/year now.
I think that we are much further along the path to autonomous driving than people realize. With a high, and growing, percentage of new Tesla sales getting FSD, and people treating FSD like it really can be independent, social acceptance is stronger than data snippets might suggest.
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You can take a a**load of Waymo rides before it costs as much as a car+FSD subscription...
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Agree...so we're bound to see more news stories like this:
Another Tesla on Autopilot Stopped on Freeway, Driver Died: Report
The vehicle stopped in live traffic and was rear-ended.
gizmodo.com
IDK about that...small sample size perhaps. Everyone I know with a newer Tesla has FSD and brags incessantly about it, trying to poo poo my Lucid because it doesn't have it
...whilst I see them getting smaller and smaller in my rear-view
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So our household is interesting; I received my Gravity late last year, but insisted that my wife upgrade her old Model 3 → Model Y (with HW4, of course) earlier this year before they stopped doing FSD account transfers. I got to see what old HW3 → HW4 FSD looked like, while I drive my non-autonomous Lucid.Agree...so we're bound to see more news stories like this:
Another Tesla on Autopilot Stopped on Freeway, Driver Died: Report
The vehicle stopped in live traffic and was rear-ended.
IDK about that...small sample size perhaps. Everyone I know with a newer Tesla has FSD and brags incessantly about it, trying to poo poo my Lucid because it doesn't have it
...whilst I see them getting smaller and smaller in my rear-view
I'd say that it's really hard to make the right judgement about the tech. If you're not living w/ the latest version of it, day in and day out—it'd be like trying to convince an ICE owner that EVs have lower maintenance needs overall. A test drive or 2 isn't convincing b/c it feels like a neat party trick, and for the first few weeks I had the same suspicions of "I don't trust the self-driving," even being a software guy myself and mostly understanding how the AI works under the hood.
I will say that after having it for ~6 months, there are still instances where the system does dumb things, but there are probably just as many instances of FSD doing things that are above what we've expected of autonomous systems, e.g., bend around construction debris or figure out how to pass a stopped garbage truck. There's also been a handful of instances where it exceeded what the human driver would do; the reality is that we don't pay attention to everything around us 100% of the time ourselves either.