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Layman perception

I think the threshold of market penetration where everyone is well aware of EVs is actually pretty low. I'm pretty sure that if 7-8% of the cars on the road were EVs, then almost all buyers would be well aware that they're an option, and they'd be likely to know someone who drives one. In California, we've blown right through whatever the threshold is. I think that many states aren't that far away from crossing it. According to the DoE data for light-duty vehicles, California has 1 pure EV registered for every 16.8 gas-only vehicles. Texas is 1 EV for every 55.6 gas vehicles. If you include plug-in-hybrid, the ratios look even better.
 
From this morning's Wall Street Journal:

# America’s Electric Honeymoon Is Over. EV Owners Must Work Out Where to Go Next.

*By Ellie Davis*
Aug. 8, 2026, 5:30 a.m. ET [1]

Drivers got hooked on great lease deals. Now, they’re looking at hybrids and gas cars—or just paying higher prices. [1]

Mark Block’s friend wouldn’t stop bragging about the great lease deal he got for his 2024 Hyundai Ioniq 6. When Mark and his wife, Ida, saw that they, too, could get a sleek, electric $50,000 car for $340 a month after a $4,000 down payment, they couldn’t resist. [1]

They liked their new battery-powered sedan. But when their lease was due back and they went looking for a similar deal, they faced higher prices and fewer options. [1]

“Never in my life have I looked at the car market and gone, ‘God, there’s just nothing I want,’” Mark Block said. [1]

In the end, they took home a hybrid—a Honda Civic. The home charger that they got for the Hyundai is still in their garage, with no car to plug into. [1]

The Blocks are among a crowd of consumers who dipped their toes into electric cars in an era when the deals were too good to pass up. The Biden-era $7,500 EV tax credit helped entice buyers to go electric, and many automakers offered heavily subsidized lease deals and discounts as regulations pushed them toward battery power. [1]

Today, that’s no longer the case. The tax credit is gone, automakers are less motivated to push for an electric future, several EV models have bowed out of the market, and prices are up—leaving onetime EV leasers who liked their cars with few affordable options. [1]

The situation is testing longstanding data that shows when people go electric, most stay electric. A February study from J.D. Power showed that 96% of polled EV owners say they would consider purchasing or leasing another—but that outcome is contingent on having options in the EV market. [1]

Nationally, second-quarter new EV sales and leases were down 20.5% year-over-year, according to Kelley Blue Book. [1]

“There is defection from that EV market,” said Ivan Drury, an Edmunds automotive analyst. “I think the one biggest problem—it is a mental hurdle to say, ‘Man, I used to be paying $200 a month. Now you guys want $500?’” [1]

Ahead of the $7,500 tax credit’s expiration in September 2025, dealers were eager to get the cars off their lots as fast as possible. Average monthly lease payments for EVs hit a low of $538 in July 2025, according to data from Edmunds. Some dealerships offered lease deals for EVs with monthly payments of less than $100. [1]

As of June, average monthly lease payments for EVs have risen to $707, compared with an average monthly payment of $607 for a non-EV, according to Edmunds data. [1]

Karl Schmidt said that at his Mazda, Subaru, and Kia dealerships in Los Angeles, the enticing deals got buyers to opt for EVs. Now, when people who leased an EV come into their dealership hoping for another, they have been in for a rude awakening, he said. [1]

“It’s always a difficult conversation when somebody comes in and you have to show them a $250 to $300 higher payment,” Schmidt said. [1]

Some buyers, set on keeping an EV, have decided to bite the bullet. [1]

Srivatsa Srinivasan saw his monthly payment for an EV more than double. The now-retired Virginia resident used the EV tax credit to get an $819 monthly payment after a roughly $11,000 deposit on a 2024 Rivian R1S Quad-Motor; the car would cost $121,990 to purchase. Leasing another example of the same model in May—when his term was up—would have cost him $1,900 a month. [1]

Ahead of the lease’s expiration, Srinivasan instead opted to buy a similar R1S with a zero-interest financing plan. He now pays $2,100 a month. [1]

Since he had grown accustomed to the car and wanted to keep putting his home EV charger to use, he decided the price tag was worth it. [1]

“I said, ‘You know what? I’m going to take the plunge—take a hit on this,’” he said. [1]

In California, the largest EV market in America and a state whose regulations have heavily driven the zero-emission car market, lawmakers are trying to replace the lost EV incentives. [1]

A new program signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in July offers first-time EV buyers $3,500 off new electric vehicles with a price tag of less than $50,000, and $1,750 off used electric vehicles selling for less than $25,000. Buyers who have previously leased an EV aren’t eligible. [1]

For the past four years in California, buyers took home more new EVs than hybrids. But in the first half of 2026, 22.1% of new cars sold were hybrids, compared with 15.9% EVs, according to data from the California New Dealers Association. [1]

Part of this trend can be attributed to hybrids becoming more commonplace, by choice or by default. America’s top-selling SUV and top-selling nonpickup vehicle, the Toyota RAV4, is now available only as a hybrid, just like the popular Camry sedan. [1]

Many EV drivers are turning to the used market. [1]

Ryan Williams is paying $389 a month to lease an Audi Q4 e-tron. When his lease expires next April, the Portland, Ore., software engineer plans to look at the used lot, and said he’s willing to get a model that is a few years old to find something cheaper. [1]

“All options are open, but I would definitely prefer to stick with an EV,” he said. [1]

Used EV prices are generally low because of depreciation, but they’re beginning to climb, even as the supply is increasing as more EVs come off lease. Prices for electric cars under $20,000 have risen the most since January, according to Recurrent, a data-science company that provides a battery-monitoring tool for EVs. [1]

Scott Case, co-founder and chief executive of Recurrent, sees these price increases as reflecting the growing consumer demand for EVs, driven in part by high gas prices. [1]

Edmunds’ Drury said that consumers who struck while the iron was hot—leased EVs when prices were at a low—got a once-in-a-lifetime deal. [1]

“You won, you won once, it’s probably good enough—it’s probably gonna have to be it,” Drury said. [1]
 
tmichael said:
From this morning's Wall Street Journal:

# America’s Electric Honeymoon Is Over. EV Owners Must Work Out Where to Go Next.

*By Ellie Davis*
Aug. 8, 2026, 5:30 a.m. ET [1]

Drivers got hooked on great lease deals. Now, they’re looking at hybrids and gas cars—or just paying higher prices. [1]

Mark Block’s friend wouldn’t stop bragging about the great lease deal he got for his 2024 Hyundai Ioniq 6. When Mark and his wife, Ida, saw that they, too, could get a sleek, electric $50,000 car for $340 a month after a $4,000 down payment, they couldn’t resist. [1]

They liked their new battery-powered sedan. But when their lease was due back and they went looking for a similar deal, they faced higher prices and fewer options. [1]

“Never in my life have I looked at the car market and gone, ‘God, there’s just nothing I want,’” Mark Block said. [1]

In the end, they took home a hybrid—a Honda Civic. The home charger that they got for the Hyundai is still in their garage, with no car to plug into. [1]

The Blocks are among a crowd of consumers who dipped their toes into electric cars in an era when the deals were too good to pass up. The Biden-era $7,500 EV tax credit helped entice buyers to go electric, and many automakers offered heavily subsidized lease deals and discounts as regulations pushed them toward battery power. [1]

Today, that’s no longer the case. The tax credit is gone, automakers are less motivated to push for an electric future, several EV models have bowed out of the market, and prices are up—leaving onetime EV leasers who liked their cars with few affordable options. [1]

The situation is testing longstanding data that shows when people go electric, most stay electric. A February study from J.D. Power showed that 96% of polled EV owners say they would consider purchasing or leasing another—but that outcome is contingent on having options in the EV market. [1]

Nationally, second-quarter new EV sales and leases were down 20.5% year-over-year, according to Kelley Blue Book. [1]

“There is defection from that EV market,” said Ivan Drury, an Edmunds automotive analyst. “I think the one biggest problem—it is a mental hurdle to say, ‘Man, I used to be paying $200 a month. Now you guys want $500?’” [1]

Ahead of the $7,500 tax credit’s expiration in September 2025, dealers were eager to get the cars off their lots as fast as possible. Average monthly lease payments for EVs hit a low of $538 in July 2025, according to data from Edmunds. Some dealerships offered lease deals for EVs with monthly payments of less than $100. [1]

As of June, average monthly lease payments for EVs have risen to $707, compared with an average monthly payment of $607 for a non-EV, according to Edmunds data. [1]

Karl Schmidt said that at his Mazda, Subaru, and Kia dealerships in Los Angeles, the enticing deals got buyers to opt for EVs. Now, when people who leased an EV come into their dealership hoping for another, they have been in for a rude awakening, he said. [1]

“It’s always a difficult conversation when somebody comes in and you have to show them a $250 to $300 higher payment,” Schmidt said. [1]

Some buyers, set on keeping an EV, have decided to bite the bullet. [1]

Srivatsa Srinivasan saw his monthly payment for an EV more than double. The now-retired Virginia resident used the EV tax credit to get an $819 monthly payment after a roughly $11,000 deposit on a 2024 Rivian R1S Quad-Motor; the car would cost $121,990 to purchase. Leasing another example of the same model in May—when his term was up—would have cost him $1,900 a month. [1]

Ahead of the lease’s expiration, Srinivasan instead opted to buy a similar R1S with a zero-interest financing plan. He now pays $2,100 a month. [1]

Since he had grown accustomed to the car and wanted to keep putting his home EV charger to use, he decided the price tag was worth it. [1]

“I said, ‘You know what? I’m going to take the plunge—take a hit on this,’” he said. [1]

In California, the largest EV market in America and a state whose regulations have heavily driven the zero-emission car market, lawmakers are trying to replace the lost EV incentives. [1]

A new program signed into law by Gov. Gavin Newsom in July offers first-time EV buyers $3,500 off new electric vehicles with a price tag of less than $50,000, and $1,750 off used electric vehicles selling for less than $25,000. Buyers who have previously leased an EV aren’t eligible. [1]

For the past four years in California, buyers took home more new EVs than hybrids. But in the first half of 2026, 22.1% of new cars sold were hybrids, compared with 15.9% EVs, according to data from the California New Dealers Association. [1]

Part of this trend can be attributed to hybrids becoming more commonplace, by choice or by default. America’s top-selling SUV and top-selling nonpickup vehicle, the Toyota RAV4, is now available only as a hybrid, just like the popular Camry sedan. [1]

Many EV drivers are turning to the used market. [1]

Ryan Williams is paying $389 a month to lease an Audi Q4 e-tron. When his lease expires next April, the Portland, Ore., software engineer plans to look at the used lot, and said he’s willing to get a model that is a few years old to find something cheaper. [1]

“All options are open, but I would definitely prefer to stick with an EV,” he said. [1]

Used EV prices are generally low because of depreciation, but they’re beginning to climb, even as the supply is increasing as more EVs come off lease. Prices for electric cars under $20,000 have risen the most since January, according to Recurrent, a data-science company that provides a battery-monitoring tool for EVs. [1]

Scott Case, co-founder and chief executive of Recurrent, sees these price increases as reflecting the growing consumer demand for EVs, driven in part by high gas prices. [1]

Edmunds’ Drury said that consumers who struck while the iron was hot—leased EVs when prices were at a low—got a once-in-a-lifetime deal. [1]

“You won, you won once, it’s probably good enough—it’s probably gonna have to be it,” Drury said. [1]
Click to expand...
Interesting perspective, I suppose. I've never leased so the idea of looking for the best deal didn't make sense to me, it was always about the best car. But seeing that almost 1/4 of new car sales are leases, then the article actually makes some sense. I do not think it explains the full picture, but it does offer up an interesting perspective.

I'd personally bankrupt my budget before I go back to ICE or even hybrid. $200-$300 more a month sounds like a lot, but given current gas prices, I don't see how that doesn't factor into the math for the next car purchase. I'd venture we will be a in post tax credit EV hangover for another quarter or two as demand was pulled forward and numbers on Q2+3 last year are inflated due to the end of the tax credit looming. As much as the media and the oil lobby wants, EVs aren't going away. They can only keep trying to delay them now and push this whole "people want hybrids" narrative for as long as they can.
 
In the meantime, the rest of the world keeps moving in the opposite direction, led by China. Well done, America...
 
prgarg said:
In the meantime, the rest of the world keeps moving in the opposite direction, led by China. Well done, America...
Click to expand...
Burn baby burn
 
I think the word is exhausting. From the crusade against EVs, to the bizarre costly buyouts to stop renewable energy projects, the ambition to halt progress seems to be unending. Who knows, if he had a fixation with CRTs, we may still be able to buy a 34" Sony Triniton at the low price of $1000.
 
prgarg said:
A $7,500 tax credit on coal powered vehicles is probably next
Click to expand...
That would be way way too expensive. Given even in CA 60% of vehicles are non electric/hybrid and in other states it is well over 90%. But then again you never know what will happen next with our current federal government
 
I dunno, even as someone who who works from home, I'm saving at least $120/mo JUST on fuel costs from a comparable (roomy, luxury, sport) sedan vehicle. That doesn't even include any other maintenance costs (oil changes, more frequent brakes/rotor changes, etc). or risks of fuel prices spiking again.

That should take at least some of the bite out of an increased lease cost.
 
Spaceship said:
Interesting perspective, I suppose. I've never leased so the idea of looking for the best deal didn't make sense to me, it was always about the best car. But seeing that almost 1/4 of new car sales are leases, then the article actually makes some sense. I do not think it explains the full picture, but it does offer up an interesting perspective.

I'd personally bankrupt my budget before I go back to ICE or even hybrid. $200-$300 more a month sounds like a lot, but given current gas prices, I don't see how that doesn't factor into the math for the next car purchase. I'd venture we will be a in post tax credit EV hangover for another quarter or two as demand was pulled forward and numbers on Q2+3 last year are inflated due to the end of the tax credit looming. As much as the media and the oil lobby wants, EVs aren't going away. They can only keep trying to delay them now and push this whole "people want hybrids" narrative for as long as they can.
Click to expand...
Yeah I wonder how much the hybrids are skewed. I mean Camry and RAV4 are selling like hotcakes but they are now only Hybrid. Granted both are cheaper to buy and own than an EV in that segment.
 
DeaneG said:
The iPhone of the automotive world. People buy them without even thinking about alternatives.
No one will ask them "why'd you buy that?"
Click to expand...
I agree the Y has been the default, but in the markets with the most EV take-up Musk's political engagement (and other behavior) has definitely damaged the brand perception and created an opening for other vendors. I've seen a lot of negative behavior directed at CT and refreshed-Y sightings.
 
DeaneG said:
The iPhone of the automotive world. People buy them without even thinking about alternatives.
No one will ask them "why'd you buy that?"
Click to expand...
I do believe a lot of people start with Tesla when looking at EVs, as that this the most known company to the layperson. The Model Y is a good gateway and still presents a strong value for what you get. Most comparable EVs go a few thousand dollars higher, which makes a difference at its price point.

We cross shopped the whole universe and ended up with a Model Y for my wife. Why? Just because like an iPhone, it just works. And sometimes, that is all you want. Other brands offer more amenities or a more interesting design, but for most people, they just need a car to get around. The Model Y is REALLY good at that. It does other things well, so while a default choice, I understand why people choose it. It would still be recommend for people looking to get into EVs, along with Rivian R2. Everything else in this segment is seriously stagnating.
 
Spaceship said:
I do believe a lot of people start with Tesla when looking at EVs, as that this the most known company to the layperson. The Model Y is a good gateway and still presents a strong value for what you get. Most comparable EVs go a few thousand dollars higher, which makes a difference at its price point.

We cross shopped the whole universe and ended up with a Model Y for my wife. Why? Just because like an iPhone, it just works. And sometimes, that is all you want. Other brands offer more amenities or a more interesting design, but for most people, they just need a car to get around. The Model Y is REALLY good at that. It does other things well, so while a default choice, I understand why people choose it. It would still be recommend for people looking to get into EVs, along with Rivian R2. Everything else in this segment is seriously stagnating.
Click to expand...
Y still beats the R2….its all about flawless software!
 
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