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gaskiller said:
I’m guessing referring to AI stock returns, but that’s a big bubble might be going pop…..or at least sideways at these valuations.
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Ah I currently do not have any stocks, only ETFs and unforetunately ETH, BTC and XRP... (minus 100k) so far...
well lets see how it will chance hopefully haha
 
gaskiller said:
But the gains will be tremendous if they execute. Right now, rest of the market is grossly overpriced. I’m pulling my investments out of AI and investing in Lucid. They are valued less than 2 billion. A reflection of the faith Wall Street has in past leadership. If Napoli can cut spending, and show some growth, the narrative changes in a blink of an eye. Is it high risk? I don’t think so, at this valuation. Software seems to have improved tremendously, and the Gravity is the best damn vehicle ever made!
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Meanwhile, LCID reduced then canceled guidance while many hardware companies keep jacking up their guidance. Memory makers and chip makers are building more supply, which is something they traditionally haven't done because of the usually cyclical nature of the sector. The big tech companies say their capex is going to keep rising. What these companies spend their money on is what I'd rather bet on. Is this a bubble? Maybe, but these companies actions say it might keep growing for the moment.

Saying LCID isn't high risk because their market cap is "low" and they just have to show growth and lower costs is uh...something. These are arguments made for every company that's declined for years. Once again, you have to think about who is buying the product a company is offering and how many customers they actually have. Just because the Cosmos is released is no guarantee of its success. That market segmentation Lucid described during their last investor's day presentation was insane to me. It would make me doubt what they think the American auto market is. And no, I don't care that the Air and Gravity are the best sellers in one segment that doesn't matter and another that cannot sustain any company on its own.
 
PetevB said:
I sit on the board of a startup. One of the largest investors is Saudi, not PIF but related. Their board member told me the following last week: no investments that are not already allocated/ earmarked last quarter are going out. Preserving country level cash and the war is the issue- many facilities have been attached, disrupting operations, while no one knows when or if the straight will re-open. Thus the country faces a potential existential crises and cash is being preserved as reserves…

Now I come here and read the statement below. Having written similar statements let me explain how I likely read it:

“The rumors are completely false”… “we have not formed a special board committee”. Sounds good, but they could be planning for bankruptcy with the entire board tomorrow and not be liable.

“The company is sufficiently liquid to carry operations well into next year” worries me. Much better to say sending half of next year, so it’s less than that, could easily be Jan/ Feb. But more important what’s in that plan? The optimist says it’s the Cosmos, full operations, etc. The pessimist says you’ve 100% delayed Cosmos and anything you can while you’re in thus window until you’ve secured more runway. And even then, the plan assumes ongoing operations going forwards. If you realize you might not get the money you don’t run straight off the cliff, you course correct earlier. Ideally a few months earlier, so that’s ~November to begin winding operations down, another could months back from that for the investment decision to be made and wires to hit the accounts and you might have a drop dead date of ~Sept to secure more money and ongoing operations. Though my experience is with smaller companies so it could easily be more. So I read this as that might give them 6 weeks to secure funding, maybe less.

“we undertake no duty to update”- what I say is true as of this moment, ie AlixPartners has not as of now recommended bankruptcy. If they do tomorrow we won’t let you know.

I have no stock or short position and want Lucid to succeed but what my board member said last week concerned me. Then I check Lucid stock and come here. I’ve said before I felt the blind faith in Saudi’s bottomless pockets is misplaced, I hope that’s not proven.
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‘ well into next year”….anyway, you are trying very hard to nitpick.

Clearly you don’t understand Saudi plan- jobs for the citizens, first auto plant in the Middle East. Diversification away from oil. The war is temporary. And have you not noticed, Iran doesn’t bomb Saudi? Saudi also haven’t said anything critical of Iran. There is some growing mutual respect there. And I have to give it to Trump to having achieved that.

The cutbacks that you see will be the “line” that they planned to build and associated structures such as the ski resort, marina etc.

With 1 trillion in the bank, they can easily throw 2-3 billion more at Lucid.

It’s foolish to think that they would now pack up and walk away from a factory they built in Saudi Arabia.

Lucid is not a “ start up” but a well funded oil country backed project.

And they don’t have a cash problem…..

Key Q1 2026 Financial Highlights
    • Revenue: Total revenue reached $115.5 billion (SAR 467.2 billion), up from $114.5 billion in Q1 2025.
    • Free Cash Flow: Reported at $18.6 billion, slightly impacted by a working capital build of $15.8 billion.
    • Shareholder Dividends: The board declared a base dividend of $21.9 billion, representing a 3.5% increase year-on-year.
    • Financial Position: The company maintained a robust cash position of $75.2 billion and a low gearing ratio of 4.8%.
 
erigion said:
Meanwhile, LCID reduced then canceled guidance while many hardware companies keep jacking up their guidance. Memory makers and chip makers are building more supply, which is something they traditionally haven't done because of the usually cyclical nature of the sector. The big tech companies say their capex is going to keep rising. What these companies spend their money on is what I'd rather bet on. Is this a bubble? Maybe, but these companies actions say it might keep growing for the moment.

Saying LCID isn't high risk because their market cap is "low" and they just have to show growth and lower costs is uh...something. These are arguments made for every company that's declined for years. Once again, you have to think about who is buying the product a company is offering and how many customers they actually have. Just because the Cosmos is released is no guarantee of its success. That market segmentation Lucid described during their last investor's day presentation was insane to me. It would make me doubt what they think the American auto market is. And no, I don't care that the Air and Gravity are the best sellers in one segment that doesn't matter and another that cannot sustain any company on its own.
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I’m not planning on investing into a potential AI bubble with circular financing and no earnings to make up for expenditure. Rather invest in a distressed company that has the best vehicles, “ unlimited” funding and great potential if they execute.

Btw, memory chip growth is always cyclical. And even Nvidia cannot guarantee perpetual growth, at some point it trickles.

You do you, I’ll do me.
 
gaskiller said:
‘ well into next year”….anyway, you are trying very hard to nitpick.

Clearly you don’t understand Saudi plan- jobs for the citizens, first auto plant in the Middle East. Diversification away from oil. The war is temporary. And have you not noticed, Iran doesn’t bomb Saudi? Saudi also haven’t said anything critical of Iran. There is some growing mutual respect there. And I have to give it to Trump to having achieved that.

The cutbacks that you see will be the “line” that they planned to build and associated structures such as the ski resort, marina etc.

With 1 trillion in the bank, they can easily throw 2-3 billion more at Lucid.

It’s foolish to think that they would now pack up and walk away from a factory they built in Saudi Arabia.

Lucid is not a “ start up” but a well funded oil country backed project.

And they don’t have a cash problem…..

Key Q1 2026 Financial Highlights
    • Revenue: Total revenue reached $115.5 billion (SAR 467.2 billion), up from $114.5 billion in Q1 2025.
    • Free Cash Flow: Reported at $18.6 billion, slightly impacted by a working capital build of $15.8 billion.
    • Shareholder Dividends: The board declared a base dividend of $21.9 billion, representing a 3.5% increase year-on-year.
    • Financial Position: The company maintained a robust cash position of $75.2 billion and a low gearing ratio of 4.8%.
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You might want to go back and read the risk factors captured in February’s 10-K. Because your logic and analysis is at odds with what the company is saying.

I get the idea of investing based on “vibes” particularly if it’s pocket change that won’t affect your life. But when every negative review, news, opinion, and comment are seen as an existential crisis, it’s probably time for a bit of reflection.
 
Feel bad for those who set stop losses below 5…..that’s why I never have stop losses in my investments.
 
gaskiller said:
‘ well into next year”….anyway, you are trying very hard to nitpick.

Clearly you don’t understand Saudi plan- jobs for the citizens, first auto plant in the Middle East. Diversification away from oil. The war is temporary. And have you not noticed, Iran doesn’t bomb Saudi? Saudi also haven’t said anything critical of Iran.
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Condescending. I'm not familiar with your resume, but I've given you part of mine. I've been working in the middle east for over a decade an a half, looked at setting up factories in Saudi multiple times (under discussion now), etc. And I know for a fact that Iran has in fact bombed Saudi, taken major installations offline that Saudi is rushing to replace, having asking my company if they can do it, etc. This goes to my biggest issue with your style- you repeatedly say things with certainty, many of which I know to be false, in order to push your perspective. You're welcome to take or leave my opinion, but don't presume to tell me what I understand.
gaskiller said:
With 1 trillion in the bank, they can easily throw 2-3 billion more at Lucid.
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They are selling assets (Al-Hilal, Aramco's sulfur assets, others that are not yep public), to raise cash. Simultaneously they are both seeking foreign investment aggressively to bring in additional cash and pulling support from investments that they spent billions on, ie pulling the plug on LUV golf after $6B+ invested, etc. Saudi had a budget deficit 2.7x their projections in 2025. Before the war. At their Q1 budget deficit the Saudi government will deplete their ready reserves in less than 1 year. They obviously have flexibility beyond this, but the situation is beyond uncomfortable. Your absolute certainty in light of this backdrop comes off as either bravado or naivete.
 
PetevB said:
I sit on the board of a startup. One of the largest investors is Saudi, not PIF but related. Their board member told me the following last week: no investments that are not already allocated/ earmarked last quarter are going out. Preserving country level cash and the war is the issue- many facilities have been attached, disrupting operations, while no one knows when or if the straight will re-open. Thus the country faces a potential existential crises and cash is being preserved as reserves…
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I had a simliar interaction well above my pay grade with an economist for one of the biggest insurance companies in the world. They said that they are pulling their market investments because the current administrations actions in the middle east are so insane and so market disruptive and unpredictable that they don't have a model that even works for it-so they're out, too. This is a household name that every person on this board knows all about. When they said that, I realized things are very bad right now.

There is also this weird perception that the Saudis are just like grandmas house where you can just shake the money tree and it keeps giving. Its not and never has been, but its a great way to glaze retail investors into bad ideas. I think more well versed investors see PIF as a necessary evil in some scenarios, but realize that PIF is accountable to the royal family over all others, and they will 100% act as such. There is not a single investment anywhere in existence that they will side with over the family-period.
 
gaskiller said:
From Portugal….so SEC has no jurisdiction there? Nothing can be done through US Gov?
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SEC can't get him but Portugeese libel laws seem to be more restrictive than in the USA (where the bar is very very high). Information was gotten from a quick google search using "libel laws in portugal" as the search term (I've found that most EU countries have much more strict libel laws than in the USA)
 
Here's one from CEO
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Read a recent post where someone bought 20,000 $5 7/17 calls yesterday for .30 cents that now trading over $5 each. $600k to $10 million. Maybe it was the Alfonso guy lol.
 
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