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Cosmos Prototyping and Production

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BS8899

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I guess we will hear about the Gravity ramp and forecast for FY2026 at the Q2'26 earnings call. The macro indications are not optimistic. Not sure if it is Gravity's early problems, perspective buyers wary about Lucid's execution, the economy or whatever. The recent layoff is an obvious signal they are not hitting their Gravity plans. I suppose we will hear from Napoli at the earnings call.

The next big thing for Lucid is getting Cosmos ready and into production. I haven't been following the story closely. Below is my understanding:
> startup will be in AMP2 in SA
> current schedule says "in production" by EOY '26
> initial volume all coming out of AMP2
> stories about using Chinese batteries assembled in AMP2 to skirt US tariff
> Cosmos production units won't appear in US market till late 2027

Are these bullets correct?

If Gravity sales don't pick up and Cosmos don't appear in the US market till late 2027, can Lucid stay in the game? Assuming AMP2 ramp is on track (is it?) can Cosmos availability in the US market be pulled in?
 
Those dates seem optimistic.
 
Your bullets are generally correct based on the latest communications from Lucid, except they haven't provided detail on when US deliveries will commence. They've only vaguely said the US was a "priority".

Lucid also seemed to confirm Cosmos will be revealed this summer. See the end of C&D article for reference:

share.google

Lucid Is Making Drastic Changes to Save Money, Reducing Output at its Factory and Laying Off Workers

The EV maker has implemented substantial layoffs for the second time this year, and COO Marc Winterhoff has also departed the company.
share.google share.google
 
Keep in mind Lucid has a 150K unit backlog to Uber and KSA. So they will start deliveries there first before direct to consumers. I still think that DTC model is quite throttled although Tesla has figured it out...
 
illopp00 said:
Keep in mind Lucid has a 150K unit backlog to Uber and KSA. So they will start deliveries there first before direct to consumers. I still think that DTC model is quite throttled although Tesla has figured it out...
Click to expand...
KSA is likely in no rush to get their cars. It will also take some time for Nuro to fit its hardware onto Cosmos. Consider they started working on the Gravity in July 2025 and they likely won't have any meaningful deliveries until the end of this year, at the earliest. I can't imagine they'll be delivering Cosmos to Uber before 2028.
 
BS8899 said:
I guess we will hear about the Gravity ramp and forecast for FY2026 at the Q2'26 earnings call. The macro indications are not optimistic. Not sure if it is Gravity's early problems, perspective buyers wary about Lucid's execution, the economy or whatever. The recent layoff is an obvious signal they are not hitting their Gravity plans. I suppose we will hear from Napoli at the earnings call.

The next big thing for Lucid is getting Cosmos ready and into production. I haven't been following the story closely. Below is my understanding:
> startup will be in AMP2 in SA
> current schedule says "in production" by EOY '26
> initial volume all coming out of AMP2
> stories about using Chinese batteries assembled in AMP2 to skirt US tariff
> Cosmos production units won't appear in US market till late 2027

Are these bullets correct?

If Gravity sales don't pick up and Cosmos don't appear in the US market till late 2027, can Lucid stay in the game? Assuming AMP2 ramp is on track (is it?) can Cosmos availability in the US market be pulled in?
Click to expand...
Yes, initial production will be in AMP2 in Saudi Arabia, but eventually AMP1 in Arizona will also be home to midsize production.

No update yet on whether the end of 2026 start of production still holds

Yes, Initial volumes will be based out of Saudi Arabia. From what I understand, the AMP1 and AMP2 will be having the same team setting up the manufacturing.

I haven't found any explicit information indicating that Lucid will be using Chinese batteries, all I could find are broader statements that say Lucid will be leveraging Chinese suppliers for certain parts.

No information yet on when US markets can expect US-based Cosmos production, but from my understanding, the initial US units will be coming from Saudi Arabia.

During the last quarterly investor call, Lucid said they had enough liquidity to go into 2027. We have yet to receive any information that would otherwise indicate that AMP2's midsize schedule is falling behind.

In terms of Gravity sales, personally I wouldn't be surprised if Q2 is more of a "recovery period" while Silvio Napoli steers things around. I think we might start seeing the first fruits of the changes towards Q3/Q4
 
The_Don said:
Your bullets are generally correct based on the latest communications from Lucid, except they haven't provided detail on when US deliveries will commence. They've only vaguely said the US was a "priority".

Lucid also seemed to confirm Cosmos will be revealed this summer. See the end of C&D article for reference:

share.google

Lucid Is Making Drastic Changes to Save Money, Reducing Output at its Factory and Laying Off Workers

The EV maker has implemented substantial layoffs for the second time this year, and COO Marc Winterhoff has also departed the company.
share.google share.google
Click to expand...
This summer does sound like an interesting timeline, I wish there was more official communications to cross-reference and to make sure
 
since the genie is out of the bottle after recent EU patent filings, everyone almost knows how Cosmos looks like. I think it will be revealed soon like 2 months

Lucid knows once they do the filings, the word will be out, I believe this is part of their plan and to get some soft feedback and make final changes
 
illopp00 said:
Keep in mind Lucid has a 150K unit backlog to Uber and KSA. So they will start deliveries there first before direct to consumers. I still think that DTC model is quite throttled although Tesla has figured it out...
Click to expand...
The initial Saudi Gov vehicles would make them iron out quality issues before US/European sales push. They can also export to Europe where EV uptake is much higher.
 
gaskiller said:
The initial Saudi Gov vehicles would make them iron out quality issues before US/European sales push. They can also export to Europe where EV uptake is much higher.
Click to expand...
I agree, for a company with global aspirations and sales, I hate to say it but the US market while large is one of the least appealing from a business standpoint....
 
If it helps put anyone at ease or gives some perspective, here's an example of a recent hire that will be the Senior Operations Director at the Saudi Arabia AMP-2 facility
Screenshot 2026-06-24 120411.webp
 
Damn… I thought I was getting the job!
 
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