Insane residual on a 2024 LAT @ 18 month lease: 86%

[Lucken]

Yeah, I’m gonna plan on moving my GT in the next 12 months not gonna wait for the glut of leases to come back as the market will plummet
The current market on the 22’ GT is about 72K with 10-15K miles. I figure in another 12 months it’ll be low 60’s. Move to a new gravity or aused Taycan turbo S as DD.

Of course as long as you keep it depreciation is irrelevant. Just another way to look at it for those so inclined. Then again with my history of 6 different EVs since 2017 (MS, I-Pace, e-Tron, Electrified G80, i4 & Lucid), I shouldn’t talk.

 

[tanjavsa]

Normal, no. Definitely winning: took delivery of my Pure AWD in Jan for considerably more upfront and monthly. What state is this deal?

CA

 

[Tqlucid]

Demo 23 tourings are going for 72-74k with 3-8k miles. I hear you can also get the 15k credits on top. That would put those cars at 60k now (if the credits are indeed available on them).

 

[Tqlucid]

Just called lucid sales. The credits are not available on top. So the price online you see for demos is the price you pay for the car. Somewhat happy, as if you could get that car for 60k I’d buy another one today! Too good to pass up, but the credits are not available on demos I was told.

 

[MJAir23TheGoat]

Had a cash offer on my 22’ GT loaded with all options 74K with 9700 miles
I may just take it and wait on gravity as I have a few others to drive around

 

[momo3605]

Of course as long as you keep it depreciation is irrelevant. Just another way to look at it for those so inclined. Then again with my history of 6 different EVs since 2017 (MS, I-Pace, e-Tron, Electrified G80, i4 & Lucid), I shouldn’t talk.

The problem is it’s irresponsible to keep or buy out one of these leases with crazy high residual. You’re incentivized to dump it. Usually if the residual is in line or slightly below market value, some people may choose to buy it out. But lucid leases have super high residuals so no one is going to keep them.

 

[Batteryman]

the msrp for a BASE car is 70. That means they have to be able to sell it for 60-62.5k after 18 month to break even. That’s definitely not happening. They will lose another 12k-15k as these will be going for below 50k.

Not to mention we know most of the cars people are leasing are not base, some are 2023 GTs that have $1xxk msrp for the same small lease payments. Most are probably in the 80-90k msrp range. Having to fire sale them used for 45-50k is going to lose them a lot of money, especially when the cost to build is like 3x the msrp.

The only way this works out is if the Gravity is a hit and they can become cash positive. It’s going to be tough. The rivian R1T/R1S are best selling 7 seater EV and they are still running very negative.

They won’t be cash flow positive with just the Gravity, you need to wait for midsize….even Rivian won’t with just the R1T and R1S, give both these companies another 3 years

 

[RDaneel]

I picked up my AT last week and see that the residual is 81% after my 18-month lease (that's MSRP to residual, not the capitalized cost. If you factor in the 7500, then it is an 86% residual). There is NO WAY that this car will be marketable for $69k with 18k miles on it, and no way that I would pay that amount to acquire the car. I'll be very curious to see if Lucid is willing to deal on the used cars (offer it to me for $40k and I might take it), export them, crush them, etc. The math definitely makes sense only if they are prioritizing growth of the installed user base and want to juice the numbers with these deals. It definitely worked on me. I never would have considered an Air without the lease deal.

 

[Steveinarizona]

They won’t be cash flow positive with just the Gravity, you need to wait for midsize….even Rivian won’t with just the R1T and R1S, give both these companies another 3 years

I agree. The sweet spot for sales, at least in the US, is a compact sized crossover (like a Toyota RAV4, BMW X3, etc.). Lucid is not scheduled to produce one until the midsized vehicle appears.

 

[Tqlucid]

I picked up my AT last week and see that the residual is 81% after my 18-month lease (that's MSRP to residual, not the capitalized cost. If you factor in the 7500, then it is an 86% residual). There is NO WAY that this car will be marketable for $69k with 18k miles on it, and no way that I would pay that amount to acquire the car. I'll be very curious to see if Lucid is willing to deal on the used cars (offer it to me for $40k and I might take it), export them, crush them, etc. The math definitely makes sense only if they are prioritizing growth of the installed user base and want to juice the numbers with these deals. It definitely worked on me. I never would have considered an Air without the lease deal.

The residual values on Tesla model S cars may be a good indicator on what the market will be in 18 months. I do not think a GT will be 40k in 18 months. Maybe not $69 but I could see mid 60s perhaps.

 

[MJAir23TheGoat]

The residual values on Tesla model S cars may be a good indicator on what the market will be in 18 months. I do not think a GT will be 40k in 18 months. Maybe not $69 but I could see mid 60s perhaps.

GT is gonna be nowhere near 40-45K 18 months out …,,,,you might score a pure for that price
GT is currently market around 72-73k
12 months out I see mid 60’s ….

18 month even with a glut of returns off lease most likely 57-58K—— heck of a sweet spot for used buyers looking for a luxury used EV
Pretty solid estimate
But market could turn one way or another

 

[Cosmo Cruz]

Let’s hope our 22 ‘s owned ( not leased) GT’s are worth more than 50-55k in the next 18 months.

lol

Yes. I was a bit disappointed at the depreciation I've suffered (about 50% in 18 months) on my "full retail" '22 GT, but console myself with the thought of picking up a Sapphire for $75k in a few years. And I have no doubt that the Chinese will be dumping EVs on the US market soon, at a loss, just because they can. They are doing this with solar... driving US producers out.

It is my civic duty to take a financial hit by being an early adopter with EVs. I financed my Lucid by investing in oil pipelines for a decade.... It feels really good knowing that BIG OIL paid for my car.

 

[Tqlucid]

GT is gonna be nowhere near 40-45K 18 months out …,,,,you might score a pure for that price
GT is currently market around 72-73k
12 months out I see mid 60’s ….

18 month even with a glut of returns off lease most likely 57-58K—— heck of a sweet spot for used buyers looking for a luxury used EV
Pretty solid estimate
But market could turn one way or another

Agreed. Exactly what I was saying. If I had to guess, mid 60s would be my number.

 

[momo3605]

Agreed. Exactly what I was saying. If I had to guess, mid 60s would be my number.

My touring residual is $73k. I don’t see a world in which it will be anywhere close and worth a buy out

 

[JoshG]

My touring residual is $73k. I don’t see a world in which it will be anywhere close and worth a buy out

Same here - My Touring residual is somehow $79,170... great for my lease payments, but there's no way it will be worth that after 3 years and with 11,350 miles on it.

Will be interesting to see what Lucid plans to do to avoid a sh*t-ton of Airs coming back to them in about a year from now. Suspect they will be in a mood to negotiate with lessees right before the end of lease. We'll know in about 8-9 months I suspect as first of these cheap short-term leases are getting close to maturity

 

[sam1480]

I am offered 78% residual value for 2024 Air Touring for 18 months. But I am not expert in leasing offer. Any thoughts??

 

[grimmer]

At at $130k MSRP, they will earn approx $15k from me for my 18 month GT lease, and then resale pre-owned for $60-70k? At best, that’s a $45k hit to what they expected (no idea on profit margins, if any yet).

New here and confused. The absolute cheapest GT lease on the site right now (lowest price, 18 mos, 5k miles, 800+ credit) with a $15k down payment shows a $553 monthly payment. Are you just guessing the monthly is pure financing charges?

The 36 mo offer I got suggests a 59% residual at 0 money factor. I am not sure how so many on here mention paying so little for leases. I don't have the actual residual until delivery this weekend apparently because of the skeezy bank (so they say) holding it until the final contract.

 

[Tqlucid]

15k down but you get 7.5k for free. So it’s really 7.5k down. Now take 7.5k and divide by 18 months and add it back to your $553. You get just under 1k a month for a 18month 10k mile lease. You are within 2k of the offer quoted so not too far off. And yes lease deals were better before for 18 months. They increased the lease payments for the 18 month leases recently it appears.